Minimum target of Nifty at 20532.5
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jul 03 to Jul 07,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jun-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction begining.
5- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 17774.3 on 26-12-2022.
6- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18265.3 on 30-12-2022.
7- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
8- Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent top formations at 19201.70 on 30-06-2023
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and from this level Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started. Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completed at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022 and Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 begun which completed at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022 and from this levels impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 started.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and "ABC" correction started. Corrective Wave-C of "ABC" correction completed at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 and from this level Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 begun which is in continuation forcefully with recent top formations at 19201.70 on 30-06-2023 after previous life time top(18887.6) broken out in previous week on 28-06-2023.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jun-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 beginning from 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
2- Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent top formations at 19201.70 on 30-06-2023
3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone.
4- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 86.05 & %D(3)- 59.39.
5- MACD- Its both lines are kissing in positive zone.
6- MACD(26,12)- 127.73 & EXP(9)- 140.27 & Divergence- -12.54
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Short Term indicator Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone as well as both lines have not turned Over bought yet therefore more up moves are expected in next week.
2- As MACD indicator generates signals little late and its both lines are kissing for the last more than one month which means that one sided clear intersection will mean that side big move beginning. Although this indicator has not shown any side clear trend yet but its MACD line has started to move up decisively and its both lines in positive zone also therefore expected that this indicator will also confirm upward trend formation clear signals in the coming week/weeks through upward intersection by MACD line of Average line.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(30-Jun-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jun-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 81 Points jump from lower levels in first half hour after gap up strong opening
2- More than 2 hours Consolidation between 18075-17107
3- Up moves with downward corrections.
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 19025-19201
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As 81 Points jump from lower levels in first half hour after gap up strong opening and after that more than 2 hours consolidation as well as follow up consolidation through up moves with downward corrections therefore rally remained continued till last 15 minutes and closing was with 216 points gains. Although new life time formations and strong rally was seen last Friday but some intraday selling patterns were also developed in last hours above 19140 therefore firstly Very Short Term intraday correction is expected before fresh and decisive up moves beginning in next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
All the trends are up and Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 forcefully continuation with recent top formations at 19201.70 on 30-06-2023 as well as no indication of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts because:-
1- Short Term indicators are suggesting some more up moves possibilities
2- Lower levels good intraday consolidation was seen in previous week intraday charts. As some intraday selling patterns developed at higher levels last Friday therefore only minor intraday correction may be seen in the beginning of next week. Until complete intraday selling partterns will not develop till then even Short Term correction will not be seen therefore finally up moves will be seen after Very Short Term corrections.
Calculation of minimum target of on going Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 at 20532.5:-
As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Impulsive Wave-3 is on and it should gain more points than Wave-1 gained.
Wave-1 gained 18887.6-15183.4=3704.2 Points
Wave-3 started from 16828.3 and and as per Elliott Wave theory it should gain minimum 3704.2 because it can not be shorter than Wave-1 therefore its minimum target is at:-
20532.5=16828.3(Wave-3 started)+3704.2(Wave-1 gained)
As as per above calculations minimum target of Nifty is at 20532.5 therefore Nifty will move above it in the coming month/months.