Finally watch 17600 amid Short Term
correction expectations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 17 to Apr 21,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction begining.
5- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 17774.3 on 26-12-2022.
6- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18265.3 on 30-12-2022.
7- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion indication with recent bottom formation at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
8- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 17842.20 on 13-04-2023.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started from this level. Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of new Waves structure completed at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022 and corrective Wave-[(ii)] begun which completed at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022 as well as Wave-[(iii)] started.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction begun.Now its corrective Wave-C is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023. As more than 6% recovery from lower levels after on going Pull Back Rally recent top formation at 17842.20 on 13-04-2023 therefore strong signals of corrective Wave-C completion have emerged on EOD charts also.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Falling Trendline broken out and last 4 sessions closing above it.
2- Stochastic- Its both lines %K(5) & %D(3) are kissing in Over bought zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 95.54 & %D(3)- 93.00.
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive & negative zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- 253.46 & EXP(9)- -15.01 & Divergence- 268.47
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
As falling Trendline has been broken out and last 4 sessions closing was above it also during on going Pull Back Rally upward moves therefore strong signals of upward trend formations have emerged after Wave-C of "ABC" correction completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Short Term indicator Stochastic its both lines are kissing within Over bought zone and this situation ls being seen for the last 5 sessions therefore signals of Short Term correction beginning has developed.
2- As 2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive & negative zone therefore showing upward trend formation stronger indications.
Although indications are showing signals of upward trend formations after Short term correction completion but confirmations are still required.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Fibonacci Retracement levels of corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1(18887.6-16828.3):-
13.0%- 17,096
23.6%- 17,314
27.0%- 17,384
38.2%- 17,615-(Crucial)
50.0%- 17,857-(Crucial)
61.8%- 18,100-(Crucial)
70.7%- 18,284
76.4%- 18,401
78.6%- 18,446
88.6%- 18,652
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 17842.20 which is just below 50.0% Retracement level. As both 50.0% and 61.8% levels are crucial and finally finally sustaining beyond these 2 levels will confirm the life and length of on going Pull Back Rally also therefore should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for next trend confirmations also.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(13-Apr-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Apr-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 17785-17827
2- Consolidation between 17730-17769
3- Up moves with downward corrections
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 17730-17842
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As firstly selling after flat opening therefore down moves started which remained continued more than 3 hours but lower levels consolidation developed and next up moves were with downward corrections also hence intraday closing was near the higher levels of the day. Although lower levels consolidation but higher levels selling was also seen through sideways trading in first hour and Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour therefore last Thursday whole day trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 17730-17842. As firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about last Thursday trading range as well as finally sustaining it beyond will confirm it therefore should be firstly watched in next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend turning up strong signals after last 5 sessions closing above its decider 55-Day SMA which is today at 17547.
3- Long Term Trend turning up strong signals after last 5 sessions closing above its decider 200-Day SMA which is today at 17557.
As on going Pull Back Rally recovered more than 1000 points(6%) from lower levels of "ABC" correction with recent top formation at 17842.20 which has completed almost 50% retracement also therefore strong indications of corrective Wave-C completion at 16828.3 have developed on EOD charts also. Indications are suggesting that upward trend formation will get confirmation after Short term correction completion if this correction will not be deeper and will not damage structure of trends formation indicators also.
Resistances above the top of on going Pull Back Rally are as follows:-
1- 17866-17891
2- 17902-17924
3- 17949-18022
4- 18069-18132
5- 18155-18192
6- 18216-18240
7- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)
Supports below the top of on going Pull Back Rally are as follows:-
1- 17734-17778
2- 17656-17682
3- 17600-17638
4- 17503-17541
5- 17477-17493
6- 17313-17367
7- 17237-17286
8- 16914-17126
9- 16840-16887
As above mentioned multiple resistances are lying above 61.8% retracement level(18,100) therefore complete consolidation is firstly required for next big up moves beginning. Strong resistances are between 18345-18387 and finally sustaining above it will mean rally above life time highest after all the trends upward turning confirmations.
Higher levels intraday selling last Thursday and indicators are also in Over bought zone therefore showing Short Term correction beginning signals which will be seen in the next week. Sustaining beyond 17600 should be finally watched in the coming week amid Short Term correction beginning expectations because 38.2% retracement lebvel(17,615) ia also just above it.