Fresh Rally beginning above life time
highest at 18887.6 without slipping
on going correction lowest at 17353.4
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 06 to Feb 10,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Feb-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning
2- Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023.
6- Last 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) broken down on 27-01-2023
7- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 17870.30 on 03-02-2023.
8- Last Friday closing within previous 24 sessions trading range at 17854.05
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
"ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and new "Waves structure" started through its Impulsive Wave-1. Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Impulsive Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD Charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Bollinger Band,Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Feb-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Nifty closed just below Middle Band of Bollinger Band last Friday.
2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 52.54 & %D(3)- 40.51.
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- -142.68 & EXP(9)- -61.33 & Divergence- -81.35
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Although new low of on going correction formed in previous week but Pull back rally started in last 2 sessions and Nifty closed just below Middle Band of Bollinger Band last Friday which is an indication of up moves continuation towards Upper Band of Bollinger Band.
Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- In Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone which is an indication of Short Term up moves continuation in next week.
2- In MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone therefore showing downward trend formation indications.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Feb-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 17678
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 17902
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 18196
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 17945
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17297
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Although Nifty closed well above 5-Day SMA at 17854 last Friday but below 21-Day SMA therefore Short Term Trend is still down. As Long Term trend decider 200-Day SMA is at 17297 therefore Long Term trend is up but Intermediate Term trend decider 55-Day SMA is at 18196 therefore Long Term trend is still down.
The difference between 5-Day SMA and 55-Day SMA is 518 points and the difference between previous closing(17854) and 55-Day SMA is 342 points. As finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA will confirm Intermediate Term trend therefore should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations because it is not far above last closing of Nifty.
Nifty-Last 6 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 27 to Feb 03,2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 6 Sessions intraday charts
1- Lower levels strong base formation in last 6 sessions between 17354-17870
2- Last 6 Sessions actual trading between 17354-17972
Conclusions from 6 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
Although on union Budget day Nifty lost 618 points from higher levels and closed in Red also but last 6 session which are 3 days before it and 2 days after it have shown lower levels good intraday consolidation patterns formations. As such nice consolidation in last 6 sessions therefore it will be understood that lower levels strong base has been formed in last 6 sessions between 17354-17870 and strong rally will be seen above last 6 sessions highest(17972)in the coming week/weeks.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(03-Feb-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Feb-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- More than 4 hours consolidation between 17585-17718
2- Sharp up moves
3- Selling in last hour between 17817-17870
4- Whole day actual trading between 17585-17870
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly slipping in first hours after positive opening and trading in negative zone also but in consolidation patterns formations as well as more than 4 hours consolidation between 17585-17718 therefore sharp up moves were seen in Mid-session. As minor selling at intraday higher levels in last hour therefore firstly some down moves can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week but lower levels good consolidation also last Friday therefore finally up moves are expected above 17870 in next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is sideways between
17354-17902.
2- Intermediate Term is down.
3- Long Term Trend is up.
Although corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD Charts.Although previous 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) was broken down on 27-01-2023 but Nifty closed within it at 17854.05 last Friday. As it is an indication of not sustaining below previous 24 sessions sideways trading range and once sustaining above it(18265) will mean strong rally beginning because that will confirm:-
1- 24 Sessions like big trading range break out
2- Intermediate Term Trend turning up after sustaining above its decider 55-Day SMA which is today at 18196
Although MACD is showing downward trend formation signals but Stochastic is indicating Short Term up moves continuation towards its Over bought zone in next week and that is expected also therefore let it happen first then will be decided according to that time indicators positions formations. Next supports and resistances beyond last Friday closing are as follows:-
Supports:-
1- 17585-17718
2- 17513-17552
3- 17438-17492
4- 17226-17374
Resistances:-
1- 17912-17972
2- 18109-18132
3- 18155-18192
4- 18216-18240
5- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)
As 243 Points Pull Back Rally with its recent closing at 17854 was seen last Friday after last 6 Sessions strong base formation between 17354-17870 and last friday closing was within previous 24 sessions sideways trading range also therefore emergence of fresh and decisive Rally beginning expectations towards and above life time highest(18887.6) in the coming weeks/months without slipping below on going correction lowest(17353.4) after all the trends turning up and without affecting from Adani Group crisis.