Levels will confirm Pre/Post Budget big moves beginning in the next 7 sessions
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Jan 23 to Jan 27,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
2- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17761.70 on 12-01-2023.
3- Last 21 sessions sideways trading between 17762-18265
4- Stochastic- Its both lines %K(5) & %D(3) are kissing in Over bought zone.
5- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 76.61 & %D(3)- 80.76.
6- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in negative zone.
7- MACD(26,12)- -71.69 & EXP(9)- -134.70 & Divergence- 63.01
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Waves structure on Nifty was potsed in previous week weekly Outlook and since then no material change in it therefore not being updated in this week weekly Outlook.
Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 started which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17761.70 on 12-01-2023 as well as no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. As last 21 sessions like bigger sideways trading between 17762-18265 therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will generate one sided big moves. Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- In Stochastic its both lines are kissing in Over bought zone which is indicating Short Term down moves beginning possibilities in next week.
2- In MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in negative zone therefore showing upward trend formation signals.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 18049
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 18032
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 18273
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 17937
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17286
2- Nifty is hovering around between 55-Day SMA & 100-Day SMA for thr last 21 sessions.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Following action of Nifty is well clear that:-
1- Nifty is sustaining well above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA.
2- Nifty is hovering around Intermediate Term Trend deciders 55-Day & 100-Day SMA for the last 21 sessions.
3- Short Term Trend deciders 5-Day & 21-Day SMA are also continuously moving between 55-Day & 100-Day SMA.
As finally sustaining beyond Intermediate Term Trend deciders 55-Day & 100-Day SMA(today at 17937-18273) will confirm next big moves therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(20-Jan-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 18091-18145 in first 3 hours
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels in last 3 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 18017-18145
Conclusions from intra day
chart analysis
Although firstly up moves after positive opening but selling was seen in first 3 hours therefore down moves developed which remained continued till last hour.
As last 3 hours Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels therefore last Friday whole day trading will be understooed with mixed patterns formation between 18017-18145. Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range in the beginning of next week. Let Nifty to sustain beyond 18017-18145 then that side decisive moves beginning will be considered according to its sustaining beyond direction.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is sideways between 17854-18183.
2- Intermediate Term is sideways between 17762-18265.
3- Long Term Trend is up.
Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 is in continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD Charts but Nifty has turned sideways for the last 21 sessions between 17762-18265. As 21 sessions like like bigger period sideways moves therefore finally sustaining beyond its trading range(17762-18265) will confirm next Intermediate Term formation and will generate one sided big moves also hence it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations.
Although Stochastic indicator is showing Short Term down moves signals but MACD is suggesting upward trend formation therefore finally finally up moves beginning possibilities have emerged after some down moves.
Firstly sustaining beyond following ranges should be watched in the coming week/weeks for next trend formation beginning signals one by one:-
1- 18017-18145(For immediate moves beginning confirmations)
2- 17854-18183(For Short Term Trend confirmations)
3- 17762-18265(For Intermediate Term Trend confirmations)
Next supports and resistances between 17762-18265 are as follows:-
Supports:-
1- 18028-18054
2- 17966-18007
3- 17854-17893
4- 17762-17851
Resistances:-
1- 18091-18145
2- 18159-18183
3- 18216-18240
6 trading sessions are left for Union Budget-2023-24 and Nifty will prepare for post Budget next big moves in these 6 sessions. As Nifty is sideways between 17762-18265 for the last 21 sessions and closed in the middle of this range last Friday with above mentioned next supports and resistances which are almost equally stronger also therefore:-
1- Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for post-Budget one sided big moves within last 21 sessions trading range.
2- Finally sustaining beyond last 21 sessions trading range will confirm one sided big moves.
As above mentioned levels,supports and resistances will firstly indicate next decisive moves beginning therefore should be firstly watched but finally valid break out of last 21 sessions trading range will confirm next big moves beginning after Intermediate Term Trend formation confirmations and that may happen before or after Budget therefore remain watchful in the coming week/weeks.