Most crucial level will confirm
next one sided big moves
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(May 16 to May 20,2022)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-May-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 14151.4 on 22-04-2021
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
7- Almost 7 months sideways correction between 15672-18604 with bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 begun after previous Waves structure Wave-C completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and news Waves structure started which completed after its impulsive Wave-5 completion with new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction commenced. Now "ABC" correction continuation which is at present sideways between 15672-18604 with bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-May-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
2- Corrective Wave-A completion at 16410.20 on 20-12-2021
3- Wave-B completion at 18351.00 on 18-01-2022.
4- Wave-C bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022
5- Pull Back Rally completion at 18114.70 on 04-04-2022 and correction beginning.
6- Pull Back Rally correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 15735.8 on 12-05-2022
7- Almost 7 months sideways correction between 15672-18604 with bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022
8- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over bought zone
9- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 11.63 & %D(3)- 13.01.
10- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.
11- MACD(26,12)- -593.58 & EXP(9)- -406.85 & Divergence- -186.73
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Although "ABC" correction continuation with its Wave-C bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022 but after that strong Pull Back Rally developed which completed at 18114.70 on 04-04-2022 and its correction begun and now that is in continuation with bottom formation at 15735.8 on 12-05-2022 as well as no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts.
As Pull Back Rally correction bottom is at 15735.8 and it is little above Wave-C bottom(15671.5) as well as "ABC" correction has turned sideways between 15672-18604 for the last almost 7 months therefore if Nifty slips below 15671.5 then as per Elliott Wave Theory above mentioned correction Waves structure will turn invalid therefore has to be recalculated.
As Stochastic is now completely Oversold therefore suggesting short term up moves indications but MACD is clearly showing downward trend. Let down moves stop and up moves begin then firstly a Short term Pull Back rally will be considered but without Nifty slipping below Wave-C bottom(15671.5).
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-May-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 16060
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 16834
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 16970
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 17197
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 17251
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As all the shorter Term averages have moves below their longer Term averages and Nifty has closed below all the averages at 15782.15 last Fiday therefore confirming complete weakness in Indian Stock markets.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
All the trends are down and Indian markets are completely in Bearish mode. Last 7 months correction has turned sideways between 15672-18604 with recent bottom formation formation at 15735.8 on 12-05-2022. Next supports and resistances within this sideways trading range(15672-18604) as follows:-
Next and last supports are as follows:-
1- 15672-15846
Next immediate resistances are as follows:-
1- 15823-15925
2- 16011-16083
3- 16165-16222
4- 16256-16304
5- 16335-16404
Last supports of 7 months sideways correction range(15672-18604) are between 15672-15846 and Nifty closed within it in both previous sessions at 15808.0 on 12-05-2022 and at 15782.1 on 13-05-2022. As Wave-C bottom is at 15671.5 which is just below the bottom of last supports(15672) and 7 months sideways correction range(15672) therefore 15672 has become most crucial because:-
1- Sustaining below 15672 will mean 7 previous months like big trading range break down.
2- Sustaining below 15672 will mean break down of last supports of 7 previous months trading range.
3- Slipping below 15671.5 will mean previous corrective Waves structure becoming invalid because as per it Wave-C bottom was at 15671.5 and corrective Waves structure will be recounted.
As Short Term Indicators are Oversold therefore suggesting some up moves possibilities in Short Term but above mentioned multiple resistances are lying and let nifty to sustain above 5th resistance top(16404) then decisive up moves will be seen and sustaining below 15672 will mean deeper correction beginning. First signal of these moves will be after sustaining beyond supports between 15672-15846 therefore it should be carefully watched in next week because deeper correction beginning most crucial level is the bottom(15672) of these supports and it will confirm next one sided big moves.