Firstly watch sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA for life and length of on going correction amid crashing Global markets
Technical Analysis,Research &
Weekly Outlook(Dec 19 to Dec 23,2022)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Dec-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning
2- Wave-i of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Wave-ii of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Wave-iii of Wave-1 continuation with recent top formation at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
5- Wave-iii of Wave-1 correction continuation towards Rising Trend Line-1 with recent bottom formation at 18255.2 on 16-12-2022.
Conclusions from EOD chart
analysis(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun which is in continuation with recent top formation at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
Correction of Wave-iii of Wave-1 is in continuation towards Rising trendlene-1 with recent bottom formation at 18255.2 on 16-12-2022 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD Charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Wave-iii of Wave-1 Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Dec-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022 & Wave-iii of Wave-1 beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 17428.8 on 06-10-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 16950.3 on 11-10-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18442.2 on 16-11-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18133.3 on 21-11-2022.
6- Wave-iii of Wave-1 continuation with recent top formation at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
7- Wave-a of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18345.7 on 12-12-2022.
7- Wave-a corrected 541.9 points
8- Wave-c of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18696.1 on 14-12-2022.
9- Wave-c of Wave-iii of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 18255.2 on 16-12-2022.
10- On going Wave-c has corrected 440.9 points till 16-12-2022.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Wave-iii of Wave-1 Waves structure)
Although Wave-iii of Wave-1 continuation with recent top formation at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 but "abc" correction started which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 18255.2 on 16-12-2022.
Now Wave-c of "abc" correction in on and as per following calculations it is correcting towards its minimum target at 18154.2:-
1- Wave-a corrected 541.9 points
2- Wave-c corrected 440.9 points
As per Elliott Wave Theory Wave-c will have correct 100% of Wave-a. As Wave-a corrected 541.9 points therefore Wave-c has to correct 101(541.9-440.9) more points and in this manner minimum target of Nifty will be 18154.2(18255.2-101) which will be seen in the coming week.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Dec-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-iii of Wave-1 continuation with recent top formation at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
2- Wave-iii of Wave-1 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 18255.2 on 16-12-2022.
3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over bought zone.
4- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 37.56 & %D(3)- 57.95.
5- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.
6- MACD(26,12)- 27.05 & EXP(9)- 165.64 & Divergence- -138.59
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- In Stochastic indicator %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over bought zone as well as not turned Over bought yet therefore showing more down moves possibilities in the coming week.
2- In MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone as well as no line is moving flat therefore confirming that Short term Trend turning downward and more downward moves possibilities in the next week.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Dec-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 18535
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 18521
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 17959
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 17747
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17134
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty has moved below both 5-Day and 21-Day SMA therefore Short Term Trend turning downward confirmations. As Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA is at 17959 which less than 300 points from last Friday lowest(18,255.15) therefore firstly sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA should be watched in the coming week/weeks for Intermediate Term Trend formation confirmations.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
Although Wave-iii of Wave-1 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet but its"abc" correction is also on and no indication of its completion yet. As per above given calculations minimum 101 Points more correction will be seen in the coming week towards following next supports because Short Term indicators are also suggesting more down moves possibilities.:-
1- 18246-18272
2- 18198-18225
3- 18134-18163
4- 17970-18012
5- 17938-17964
6- 17724-17765
7- 17655-17712
As Global markets crashed in previous week therefore down moves were seen in Indian markets also in last 2 sessions and more down moves are expected in the coming week also. Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA(17959) is less than 300 points away from last Friday lowest(18,255.15) and more down moves are expected in the coming weel also. As it will decide life and length of on going "abc" correction and its turning down will mean doors of 3 weeks to 3 months correction opening with deeper correction beginning possibilities also therefore firstly sustaining beyond Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA(17959) should be watched in next week for its confirmations.