Most crucial range will confirm
next trend and bigger moves
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Sep 19 to Sep 23,2022)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Corrective Waves)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Sep-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning with Double Zig-Zag pattern formation.
2- Wave-A completion at 16410.20 on 20-12-2021.
3- Wave-B completion at 18351.00 on 18-01-2022.
4- Wave-C bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022.
5- Wave-X completion at 18114.70 on 04-04-2022.
6- Wave-A completion at 15735.80 on 12-05-2021.
7- Wave-B completion at 16793.80 on 03-06-2022.
8- Wave-C completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022.
9- Wave-X continuation with recent top formation at 18096.20 on 15-09-2022.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Corrective Waves)
11 Months old "ABC" correction continuation with Double Zig-Zag pattern formation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. Wave-X of correction started from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and is very much on with recent top formation at 18096.20 on 15-09-2022 after gaining 2912.8 points in the last 63 sessions. As Wave-X has shown so much strength therefore finally it will decide the life and length of on going Double Zig-Zag correction hence its movements should be watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Sep-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-C completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Wave-X beginning.
2- Wave-X continuation with recent top formation at 18096.20 on 15-09-2022.
3- Last 32 Sessions sideways correction between 17167-18096.
4- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone.
5- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 38.78 & %D(3)- 65.57.
6- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its MACD line is rising and its Average line is flat in positive zone.
7- MACD(26,12)- 102.51 & EXP(9)- 42.47 & Divergence- 60.04.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
As Wave-X has turned sideways between 17167-18096 for the last 32 like bigger Sessions and finally break out/down of this range will decide its continuation/completion therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week for its confirmations. Positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- In Stochastic indicator %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone therefore suggesting some more down moves in next week.
2- In MACD indicator MACD line is rising and its Average line is flat in positive zone and both the lines are just above Zero line therefore not showing much strength of upward trend.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(16-Sep-2022)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Sep-2022):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 17763-17798
2- Sharp fall
3- Down moves with upward corrections
4- Volatility in last hour between 17498-17602
5- Whole day actual trading between 17498-17820
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As firstly selling after gap down opening last Friday and good intrday selling was seen one day befpre also therefore sharp fall developed immediately after opening. Although follow up selling in Mid-session through Down moves with upward corrections but volatility in last hour between 17498-17602 which was within next supports range(17477-17591) therefore firstly sustaining beyond 17477-17602 should be watched in the beginning of coming week for immediate decisive moves beginning confirmations because:-
1- Very Short Term indicators have turned Over sold after intraday 598 points sharp falls in last 2 sesions of previous week.
2- Technical positins reverses also some times under such high depressed sentiments during last Friday like volatility and within supports range as well.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
Wave-1 of which Waves structure begun from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 completed after almost 19 months at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction started which is in continuation also with Double Zig-Zag pattern formation. As on going "ABC" correction is now 11 Months old therefore "timewise correction" completion of 19 months rally has been understood.
Previous Waves structure gained 11093.4 points(18604.50-7511.10) and it has corrected 3421.1 points(18604.50-15183.4) during on going "ABC" correction. As 30.83% correction has been completed and it is more than 27%(15609) of Fibonacci retracement therefore "pricewise correction" completion will also be understood. Now Wave-X of Double Zig-Zag correction is in continuation which has shown complete strength because it has gained 2912.8 points(18096.20-15183.4) in the last 63 sessions and remained 508.3 points(18604.50-18096.20) shorter than previous Waves structure top and life time highest(18604.50).
As Wave-X is trading sideways between 17167-18096 for the last 32 Sessions which is like a bigger sideways trading range therefore it has become "most crucial" because:-
1- Its highest level(18096) is only 508.3 points below previous waves structure top and life time highest(18604.50) and once moving above it will mean first strong signal of new Waves structure formation beginning after moving above 18604.50.
2- Sustaining below 17167 will mean deeper correction beginning after more than 32 sessions like bigger trading range broken down confirmations.
As valid break out/down of this "most crucial range" will form next trend and bigger moves also therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations. Next resistances and supports within this range are as follows which should also be firstly watched one by one for next decisive moves beginning indications and confirmations:-
Next resistances of 32 sessions trading range are as follows:-
1- 17763-17798
2- 17862-17959
3- 18044-18091
Next supports of 32 sessions trading range are as follows:-
1- 17477-17591
2- 17381-17401(Gap support)
3- 17226-17380