Firstly up moves but Short Term
Correction is very much due
Technical Analysis,Research &
Weekly Outlook(Aug 16 to Aug 19,2022)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Aug-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-C completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Wave-A beginning
2- Wave-A continuation with recent top formation at 17724.65 on 12-08-2022 & tested falling trendline from all time high.
4- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising within Over bought zone.
5- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 91.47 & %D(3)- 86.32.
6- Stochastic is showing negative divergence
7- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive zone.
8- MACD(26,12)- 649.13 & EXP(9)- 570.84 & Divergence- 78.29
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Wave-A continuation with recent top formation at 17724.65 on 12-08-2022 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts. As Wave-A has tested falling trendline from all time high therefore sustaining it beyond in next week will confirm rally continuation or Short Term Correction beginning. Present positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- In Stochastic indicator %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are slowly rising within Over bought zone as well as showing negative divergence therefore indicating strong signals of Short Term correction beginning.
2- In MACD indicator MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive zone therefore suggesting upward trend continuation and showing up moves continuation signals.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Aug-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 17562
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 16931
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 16357
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 16611
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 16699
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Nifty has closed well above all the Short to Long Term Averages and shown too much strength during on going rally. As Nifty has traded more than 1000 above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA last Friday therefore confirmation of sustaining above it and Long Term Trend turning up as well which is a strong indication of rally continuation also.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(12-Aug-2022)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Aug-2022):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Sharp fall after flat opening
2- Whole day slow up moves
3- Whole day intraday corrections
4- Up moves with downward corrections
5- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
6- Sharp up moves in last half hour
7- Whole day actual trading between 17598-17724
Conclusions from intra day
chart analysis
Although flat opening but sharp fall was seen after that. As whole day slow up moves with continuous intraday correcions also therefore up moves remained continue whole day.
As almost 60 points down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last 2 hours which was a good sign of intraday consolidation last Friday therefore sharp up moves were seen in last half hour and confirming on going rally continuation in the beginning of next week also.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
All the Trends are up. Impulsive Wave-1 of which Waves structure begun from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 completed after 20 months at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction started with Double Zig-Zag pattern formation. Now on going "ABC" correction is more than 9 months old and its Wave-A continuation with top formation at 17724.65 on 12-08-2022 after gaining 2541 points.
Although Long Term Trend turning up confirmation but Nifty has tested falling trendline therefore firstly sustaining above it also should be watched in next week for another storng signal of on going "ABC" correction completion. As Short & Intermediate Term indicators have turned Over bought and Short Term indicators are showing negative divergence also therefore showing signals of Short Term correction beginning which may begin any day.
Intraday chart of last Friday is showing good consolidation in last hours therefore firstly up moves will be seen in next week and let complete intraday selling patterns develop on intraday charts then Short Term correction will start which is very much due after 2541 points one sided rally and Over bought Short Term indicators.