Remain cautious amid deeper
correction beginning possibility
Technical Analysis,Research &
Weekly Outlook(Apr 18 to Apr 22,2020)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
2- Corrective Wave-A completion at 16410.20 on 20-12-2021
3- Wave-B completion at 18351.00 on 18-01-2022.
4- Wave-C bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022
5- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 18114.70 on 04-04-2022
6- Last 11 Sessions trading between 17388-18114
7- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over bought zone.
8- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 14.18 & %D(3)- 21.62.
9- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.
10- MACD(26,12)- 391.78 & EXP(9)- 486.98 & Divergence- -95.2
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 18114.70 on 04-04-2022 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but last 11 Sessions trading between 17388-18114 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm its fate.
Although both lines of Stochastic are falling in Over bought zone but %K(5) line has not intersected %D(3) line upward and negative divergence has also not been seen yet therefore no confirmation of up moves beginning yet.
As in MACD MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone therefore showing signals of downward trend formation.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1-Averages
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 17621
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 17433
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 17169
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 17297
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17158
Conclusions from EOD
chart analysis (Averages)
Although Nifty moved below 5-Day SMA but got supports just above 21-Day SMA in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining 17433 should be firstly watched in next week for first signal of next trend formations. As all the Intermediate and Long Term averages have turned flat therefore finally sustaining beyond all these Averages and specially 200-Day SMA(17158) should be watched in next week for Long Term Trend confirmations which is at stake after its being flat .
Nifty-Last 11 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 30 to Apr 13,2020):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 11 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 11 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 17478-17537
B- 17524-17561
C- 17616-17663
D- 17727-17779
E- 17802-17842
F- 17818-17901
G- 17975-18095
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 11 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 17457-17518
B- 17388-17533
3- Last 11 Sessions actual trading between 17388-18114
Conclusions from 11 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
As intraday consolidation after 30-03-2022 therefore strong up moves were seen in the beginning of Apr-2022 but higher levels selling developed therefore not sustaining at higher levels and continuous down moves were seen in last 7 sessions with follow up selling and resultant above mentioned higher levels multiple resistances developed.
Now last 2 supports of last 11 sessions are between 17388-17533 and fresh selling was seen within this range between 17478-17537 on 13-04-2022 therefore these supports have been weakened and higher levels good selling also in last 7 sessions therefore expected that firstly down moves will be seen in the beginning of next week and once sustaining below last 11 sessions lowest(17388) will mean deeper correction beginning after last 11 sessions trading range broken down confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(13-Apr-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 17616-17663
2- Selling between 17524-17561
3- Selling between 17478-17537
4- Whole day actual trading between 17458-17663
Conclusions from intraday
chart analysis
Although strong opening but not sustaining at higher levels because immediately selling developed which remained continued till last hours. As good intraday selling on 13-04-2027 therefore down moves will be seen below day's lowest(17458) in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is down
Pull Back Rally which started from 15671.5 on 08-03-2022 is in continuation with recent top formation at 18114.70 on 04-04-2022 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts after gaining 2443 Points. As long Weekly Black Candle formation in previous week and Weekly Doji candle was formed before previous week as well as previous sessions closing was at the lowest of last 7 sessions therefore strong indication of more down moves in next week because higher levels good intraday selling was seen in last 7 sessions.
As MACD is showing signals of downward trend formation and Stochastic has not produced any upward move signal therefore more down moves can not be ruled out in next week and firstly sustaining below last 11 sessions lowest(17388) should be watched for first strong signal of deeper correction beginning and finally sustaining beyond 200-Day SMA(17158) should also be watched for Long Term Trend formation and next big moves beginning confirmations. Next supports below 11 sessions lowest(17388) are as follows:-
1- 17344-17387(Gap Support)
2- 17236-17387
3- 17138-17185
4- 17004-17081
As Long Term Trend will also be down below 17158 therefore remain cautious because down moves are expected in the beginning of next week. Firstly 17388 and after that above mentioned supports should be watched and once sustaining below 17004 will mean deeper correction beginning of on going Pull Back Rally which is possible also after good higher levels intraday selling in previous weeks.