Levels break out/down will confirm next trend after 6 months sideways "ABC" correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 02 to May 06,2020)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Last 6 months sideways correction between 15671.5-18604.50
2- Last 10 Sessions trading between 16825-17414
3- Stochastic- Its both lines %K(5) & %D(3) are kissing in the Middle zone.
4- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 51.45 & %D(3)- 48.22.
5- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.
6- MACD(26,12)- -267.91 & EXP(9)- -102.24 & Divergence- -165.67
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Impulsive Wave-5 completed at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and after that "ABC" correction begun which is in continuation as well as no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.
As more than 6 months old correction has turned sideways between 15672-18604 and finally its break out/break down will form next trend therefore let it happen then view will be accordingly and till then Outlook will be of sideways market. Last 10 Sessions trading between 16825-17414 and finally its break out will confirm next decisive moves towards 15672 or 18604 therefore should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks.
In Stochastic its both lines %K(5) & %D(3) are kissing in the Middle zone therefore it is not showing any side decisive move but in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone hence confirming downward trend formations and more down moves possibilities.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 17108
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 17425
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 17127
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 17283
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17226
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
All the Short to Long Term Averages have turned flat and all are moving between 17108-17425 therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next Long Term Trend as well as will generate one sided big moves towards the break out/down side of this range.
Nifty-Last 10 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 18 to Apr 29,2020):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 10 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 10 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 17242-17377
B- 17384-17414
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 10 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 17075-17120
B- 16959-16981
C- 16918-16954
3- Last 10 Sessions actual trading between 16825-17414
Conclusions from 10 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
Last 10 sessions trading between 16825-17414 with above mentioned supports and resistances within it. As last Friday closing was almost in the middle of this range and both higher levels resistaances and lower levels supports are equally strong also therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade within and near about last 10 sessions trading range(16825-17414) and finally sustaining it beyond will confirm next Short Term trend hence should be firstly watched in the coming week for its confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(29-Apr-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 17242-17377
2- Sharp fall in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 17054-17377
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firtsly some up moves after positive opening but selling developed therefore sharp fall was seen in last hour. As good intraday selling last Friday therefore more down moves will be seen in next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
Although more than 2 months old Russian-Ukraine war but Indian markets have not crashed and turned sideways between 15672-18604 therefore all the Trends are now sideways and all the Short to Long Term Averages are moving flat. It means that Indian markets are in Wait and watch mood and will finally break out or break down of this range after becoming the sky clear.
As correction of Nifty begun after Impulsive Wave-5 completion therefore it has to correct whole rally between 7511.10-18604.50 and it is being done nowadays in sideways markets between 15672-18604. As Nifty closed last Friday almost in the Middle of of this correction range and multiple lower levels supports are higher levels resistances are lying therefore Nifty will trade and prepare for those next big moves within this range as well as finally break out/down of this range will generate those big moves in the coming weeks/months.
Although Short Term indicator Stochastic is not showing anyside moves but MACD is suggesting more down moves. As good intraday selling and no consolidation last Friday therefore more down moves are expected towards above mentioned supports in the beginning of coming week. As finally following levels will finally produce next moves and form next trend therefore should be watched one by one in the coming week/weeks/months:-
1- 16825-17414(Last 10 Sessions trading range)
2- 17108-17425(Short to Long Term Averages)
3- 15672-18604(Last 6 months correction range)
As all the Short to Long Term Averages are lying almost within last 10 Sessions trading range therefore firstly sustaining it beyond or its forceful break out/down should be watched because that will generate strong signal of next Long Term Trend formation. As break out/down of last 6 months correction range will confirm life and length of on going "ABC" correction therefore finally should be watched for that Long Term moves confirmations.