Firstly watch most crucial supports and resistances amid Union Budget-2022 expectations and announcements led high volatility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 24 to Jan 28,2022)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (21-Jan-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC' correction beginning.
2- Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction completion at 16410.20 on 20-12-2021
3- Wave-B completion at 18351.00 on 18-01-2022 and and Wave-C beginning
4- Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 17485.8 on 21-01-2022
5- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are in Over sold zone.
5- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 14.04 & %D(3)- 21.92.
6- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its MACD line is falling while Average line is flat
7- MACD(26,12)- 418.83 & EXP(9)- 495.43 & Divergence- -76.6
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
As in Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are in Over sold zone therefore suggesting that up moves may start any day.
As in MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its MACD line is falling while Average line is flat therefore MACD has started to show downward trend formation signals.
Although Stochastic is suggesting some up moves possibilities but MACD is showing downward trend formation signals therefore expected that finally down moves will be seen after some up moves.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (21-Jan-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction completion at 16410.20 on 20-12-2021 and Wave-B beginning
2- Wave-B completion at 18351.00 on 18-01-2022 and and Wave-C beginning
3- Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 17485.8 on 21-01-2022
4- Fibonacci Retracement levels from Wave-B(18351-16410)
1- 13.0%-18,098
2- 23.6%-17,892
3- 27.0%-17,826
4- 38.2%-17,609(Crucial)
5- 50.0%-17,380(Crucial)
6- 61.8%-17,151(Crucial)
7- 70.7%-16,978
8- 76.4%-16,868
9- 78.6%-16,825
10-88.6%-16,631
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Wave-B which started from 16410.20 on 20-12-2021 completed at 18351.00 on 18-01-2022. Now Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 17485.8 which is between 38.2% and 50.0%. As Nifty closed near 38.2% level(17609) at 17617.15 last Friday therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for pre-Budget next decisive moves beginning confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(21-01-2022)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-01-2022):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 230 Points fall in first 15 minutes after gap down opening
2- Selling between 17591-17706
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- 160 Points jump in last half hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 17486-17707
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although 230 Points fall in first 15 minutes after gap down opening but after that up moves were seen from lower levels. As fresh good selling developed at higher levels between 17591-17706 therefore down moves were seen till last hour but were in Bullish Falling Channel also hence Nifty jumped 160 Points in last half hour
As higher levels good selling last Friday therefore firstly down moves will be seen towards 17486 in the beginning of next week and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next decisive moves beginning confirmations because some consolidation was also seen above it in last hours through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
Corrective Wave-C started in previous week for moving below the bottom of Wave-B(16410.20) but Short term indicators have turned oversold therefore some up moves can not be ruled out but finally down moves will be seen towards and below 16410.20 in the coming weeks/months without moving above the top of Impulsive Wave-5(18604.50).
As Union Budget-2022 will be tabled in Parliament on 01-02-2022 after 5 trading sessions therefore volatility may be high hence following supports and resistances should also be firstly watched for next trend beginning:-
Next supports between 18604.50-16410.20 are as follows:-
1- 17332-17371
2- 17192-17241
3- 16884-17093
4- 16820-16918
5- 16739-16782
6- 16411-16530
Next resistances between 16410.20-18604.50 are as follows:-
1- 17591-17706
2- 17795-17832
3- 17959-18129
4- 18292-18321
5- 18379-18458
6- 18548-18604
As Indian markets may be highly volatile also on Budget expectations and announcements therefore firstly sustaining beyond above next supports and resistances should be watched one by one in the coming 2 weeks amid Union Budget-2022 led high volatility.
Above most crucial supports and resistances are between the top of Impulsive Wave-5(18604.50) ie life time top and bottom of Wave-A(16410.20) ie lowest of on going 'ABC" correction. As finally sustaining beyond 16410.20-18604.50 will form next trend and will generate next big moves as well therefore should be finally watched in next 2 weeks amid pre-Budget expectations till 1st Feb 2022 and finally Post-Budget announcements on and after 1st Feb 2022.