Levels will indicate and confirm
next big moves
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 15 to Mar 19,2021)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis (Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Mar-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
2- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after its top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021
3- Long Black candle formation with lowest at 14953.60 on 12-3-2021
4-Averages
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 15039
B- 13-Day SMA is today at 14963
C- 21-Day SMA is today at 15022
D- 55-Day SMA is today at 14602
Conclusions from EOD
chart analysis (Averages)
As Waves structure from Impulsive Wave-1 beginning(7511.10 on 24-03-2020) was updated in previous weekly Outlook and no material change in it since then not being posted now.
Although Impulsive Wave-3 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet but indications of its completion after recent top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021.
Short Term Averages(5,13 and 21 Day SMA) are flat and and last Friday long Black candle lowest formation was at 14953.60 which was below all these short Term Averages therefore if Nifty sustains below it in next week then it will be first indication correction beginning on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Mar-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 60.28 & %D(3) is at 56.33
2- Stochastic is showing negative divergence from over bought zone through moving down when Nifty is moving up.
3- MACD line intersected Average line downward
4- Last 28 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Stochastic and MACD are indication Short Term correction in following manner:-
1- Stochastic is showing negative divergence from over bought zone.
2- MACD line intersected Average line downward.
As 28 sessions like big sideways trading between 14468-15421 therefore sustaining beyond this range will generate big moves which should be finally watched in the coming week/weeks for confirmations.
Nifty-Last 28 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 02 to Mar 12,2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 28 Sessions intraday charts
1- Union-Budget day rally on 01-02-2021
2- Last 28 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421
3- Selling(Resistances) in last 28 sessions are between:-
A- 15201-15241
B- 15262-15319
C- 15335-15431
4- Sideways trading last Friday between 14954-15057
5- Consolidation(Supports) in last 28 sessions are sessions:-
A- 14866-14906
B- 14788-14855
C- 14663-14742
D- 14504-14615
6- Supports below last 28 sessions trading range are as follows:-
A- 13817-13865
B- 13725-13776
C- 13606-13701
Conclusions from 28 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
Last 28 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421 after 701 points huge rally on Union-Budget day(01-02-2021) with higher levels 3 resistances and lower levels 4 supports and valid break out of this range will confirm next big moves which will be seen in the coming week/weeks.
As Nifty got intraday supports and traded sideways between 14468-15421 in last 2 hours on 12-03-2021 therefore sustaining beyond this range will generate first signal of next big moves which should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(12-Mar-2021)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Mar-2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 15262-15319 in first 3 hours
2- Selling between 15201-15241
3- Sideways trading between 14954-15057
4- Whole day actual trading between 14954-15336
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As US markers closed strong in last 2 sessions and Indian markets could not react on it due to Indian Stock markets closing on 11th March therefore in its reaction huge gap up opening of Indian markets on 12-03-2021.
Last resistances between 15335-15431 were updated in previous weekly Outlook(Mar 08 to Mar 12,2021) and Nifty crashed 382 points last Friday after intraday highest formation at 15336.30 which means that Nifty honored its last resistance.
As good selling in first 3 hours and after that follow up selling in Mid-session therefore sharp fall was seen last Friday.Some supports developed at lower levels and last hours sideways trading between 14954-15057 are suggesting that firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in next week for the life of last Friday started correction.
Keep in mind that until complete consolidation will not develop till then Nifty will not be able to move above last Friday highest(15336.30) because good selling was seen below it that day and Fresh selling in the beginning of next week will mean correction continuation towards above mentioned next supports.
Conclusions
(After Putting All Studies Together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is sideways between 14468-15421 for the last 28 sessions.
As stimulus package in USA therefore strong rally was seen in US markets and resultant some up moves were seen in Indian markets also but Indian markets completely under performed US markets and Nifty weekly closing was with less than 100 points gains while Dow Jones formed new life time highs daily in previous week which is a sign of Short Term weakness in Indian markets.
Although Averages and Indicators are showing weakness in Short Term but some supports are also lying at lower levels as well as last 28 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421 therefore Nifty will trade within this range in the beginning of next week and prepare for next big moves.
3 Next Resistances and 4 next supports between 14468-15421 has been updated above and sustaining them beyond should be firstly watched in next week/weeks in following manner:-
1- Sustaining beyond 14954-15057 will give first indication of next big moves.
2- Sustaining beyond 14468-15421 will give final confirmation of next big moves.