Trading range will confirm next one sided big moves amid deeper correction possibility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jun 28 to Jul 02,2021)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(MACD & Stochastic)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jun-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent high and new life time top formation at 15901.60 on 15-06-2021
2- Stochastic %K(5) is at 73.43 & %D(3) is at 68.11
3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and both lines are rising towards Overbought zone
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and both lines are falling in positive zone.
5- MACD is showing negative divergence
6- Up moves in Bearish Rising channel for the last 27 sessions from 20-05-2021
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
As in Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and both lines rising towards Overbought zone therefore some up moves can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week.
As MACD line has intersected Average line downward and both lines are falling in positive zone as well as MACD is showing negative divergence therefore emergence of decisive down moves expectations in the coming week/weeks.
As up moves in Bearish Rising channel for the last 27 sessions from 20-05-2021 and its forceful break down/sustaining below of rising lower line will be deeper correction confirmation therefore remain cautious in the coming week/weeks despite without force new life time high formations possibilities.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Bollinger Band)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jun-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Bollinger Band squeezed
2- Last 19 sessions sideways trading between 15451-15901
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Bollinger Band)
As Nifty is trading within 450 points for the last 19 sessions between 15451-15901 and volatility has fallen to lower levels therefore Bollinger Bands has narrowed and its Squeeze occurred. It has been observed that periods of lower volatility are often followed by periods of higher volatility therefore A new advance starts after break out above upper band or a new decline starts after break down below lower band.
Bollinger Band is showing that fresh one sided big moves are on cards and its confirmation will be break out/down of its upper/lower bands therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for these one sided big moves confirmations.
As last 19 sessions sideways trading between 15451-15901 and last corner points of both lower and higher bands are lying within this range therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will also confirm these one sided big moves
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(25-Jun-2021)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jun-2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 15773-15807(immediate supports)
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Last hour sideways trading between 15804-15870
5- Whole day actual trading between 15773-15870
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly down moves after positive opening but were in Bullish Falling Channel and fresh consolidation therefore up moves were seen. As these Up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore rally stopped and turned into sideways trading in last hour between 15804-15870.
As both lower levels buying and some selling in Mid-session as well as sideways trading in last hour therefore last Friday trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 15773-15870.
Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within or near about last Friday trading range in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining it beyond will form next Short Term Trend therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.
Conclusions
(After Putting All Studies Together)
All trends are up and Bullish rally continuation with 2nd highest closing last Friday which is only 8 points below previous life time highest closing.
Although trend decider MACD is showing downward trend and down moves beginning possibilities also because negative divergence has also developed in this indicator but Short Term indicator Stochastic is telling for immediate up moves possibilities which may also be seen in the beginning of next week because clear consolidation patterns were seen in last Friday intraday charts and clear selling patterns were not seen in it.
As squeezed Bollinger Band is suggesting that one sided big moves may start toward the direction of its upper/lower Bands break out but remain cautious because up moves in Bearish Rising channel are been seen for the last 27 sessions from 20-05-2021 and its rising lower line break down will generate deeper correction.
Importance of last 19 sessions sideways trading range(15451-15901) has been increased because squeezed Bollinger Band formation is also lying within this range and sustaining beyond this range will be Bollinger Bands break out/down confirmation also therefore should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for the next one sided big moves confirmations amid deeper correction possibility after last 27 sessions Up moves in Bearish Rising channel.