Previous week started correction continuation expectations towards next supports
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Oct 19 to Oct 23,2020)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Oct-2020):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning.
2- Wave-B completion indications with recent top formation at 12025.45 on 15-10-2020 and correction beginning.
3- Fibonacci retracement levels of correction:-
1- 13.0%- 11438
2- 23.6%- 10960
3- 27.0%- 10806
4- 38.2%- 10301(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 9768(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 9235(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 8833
8- 76.4%- 8576
9- 78.6%- 8477
10-88.6%- 8025
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
As 363 points sharp fall from higher levels on 15-10-2020 and Nifty closed below the lowest of last 5 sessions after testing psychological level of 12000 therefore first strong signal
Wave-B completion and Wave-C beginning.
Once confirmation of Wave-C formation will mean correction continuation according to above mentioned Fibonacci retracement levels and that should be watched for supports getting and next moves in coming weeks/months/years.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
((Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Oct-2020):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 11855
2- 13-Day SMA is today at 11678
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 11421
4- 200-Day SMA is today at 10721
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Short Term Trend has turned down after after slipping 363 points from higher levels on 15-10-2020 and last 2 sessions closing below its decider 5-Day SMA(today at 11855).
Although Nifty tested 13-Day SMA(today at 11678) in last 2 sessions but closed above it. Once sustaining below it will mean first signal of Intermediate Term Trend turning down and its confirmation will be after sustaining below its decider 55-Day SMA(today at 11421)
Long Term Trend is very much up because Nifty closed more than 1000 points up its decider 200-Day SMA(10721) last Friday and even it was not tested in Sep 2020 fall also.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(16-Oct-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Oct-2020):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Sharp down after positive opening
2- Sideways trading between 11717-11768
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Sideways trading between 11747-11789
5- Whole day actual trading between 11668-11789
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly sharp down after strong opening but after that whole day slow up moves were seen and some selling also through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
As up moves were slow and 2 times sideways trading as well as one sided trading patterns were not seen therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves between and near about 11717-11789 in the beginning of next week and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in next week for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.
Conclusions
(After Putting All Studies Together)
Although Wave-B continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet but first signal of its completion and Wave-C beginning had been generated after Long Black Engulfing Candle formation on 15-10-2020. As Very-Very Short Term indicators have turned Oversold after 15th Oct 2020 big fall therefore some up moves towards following next resistances can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week:-
1- 11823-11883
2- 11923-12025
Once failing to sustain above resistances will mean correction continuation towards and below following next supports:-
1- 11565-11607
2- 11391-11417
3- 11201-11270
4- 11073-11099(Gap support)
5- 10963-11006
6- 10791-10833
Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA is today at 10721 which is just below 6th support lowest and once sustaining below it will mean Long Term Trend turning down confirmation as well as Wave-C formation confirmation to move below the origin of Wave-B(7511.10).
Although some up moves can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week but expected that Nifty will not be able to sustain above resistances and finally Nifty will slip below last week lowest(11661.3) and previous week started correction will remain continued towards above mentioned next supports one by one.