Firstly watch next supports amid Global markets led crashing like situation
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 04 to May 08,2020)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure of Wave-B)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Apr-2020):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Impulsive Wave-1 of Wave-B beginning after corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 9038.90 on 27-03-2020 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 8055.80 on 03-04-2020 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 9390.85 on 20-04-2020 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 8909.40 on 21-04-2020 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 of Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 9889.05 on 30-04-2020
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure of Wave-B)
Impulsive Wave-5 of Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 9889.05 on 30-04-2020 no confirmation of its completion yet.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Bollinger Band & Stochastic)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Apr-2020):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning
3- Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 9889.05 on 30-04-2020
4- Wave-B tested upper band of Bollinger Band
5- Stochastic-%K(5) is at 93.61 & %D(3) is at 85.64
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Bollinger Band & Stochastic)
As on going Wave-B tested upper band of Bollinger Band and Short Term indicator(Stochastic) has also moved into Over bought zone therefore strong signals of short term correction beginning in next week.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave-B)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Apr-2020):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of corrective Wave-A(7511.1 to 9889.05):-
1- 13.0%- 9579.92
2- 23.6%- 9327.85
3- 27.0%- 9247.00
4- 38.2%- 8980.67 (Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 8700.07 (Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 8419.48 (Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 8207.84
8- 76.4%- 8072.30
9- 78.6%- 8019.98
10-88.6%- 7782.19
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels Wave-B)
As indicators are suggesting correction therefore above given retracement levels Wave-B should be watched for next targets of correction one by one.
Nifty-
Last 30 Sessions intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 13 to Apr 30,2020):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 30 sessions between
A- 9841-9889
B- 9955-10142
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 30 sessions
A- 9770-9834
B- 9392-9518
C- 9154-9227
D- 8913-8972
E- 8700-8750
F- 8361-8449
G- 8056-8107
H- 7512-7970
3- Previous 28 Sessions actual trading between 7512-9602
4- Trading between 9732-9889 on 30-04-2020
5- Trading between 8556-10159 on 10% Lower circuit filter triggering day(13-03-2020)
6- Last 30 Sessions actual trading between 7512-10159
Conclusions from 30 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although 10% Lower circuit filter triggered on 13-03-2020 and Nifty recovered 1604.25 points from lower levels as well as closed at the higher levels of the day but Nifty opened much weaker on next trading day(16-03-2020) and since then remained sideways in the next 28 Sessions between 7512-9602.
This 28 Sessions trading range was broken out on 30-04-2020 and Nifty traded whole day above it between 9732-9889 as well as good consolidation was seen but could not move above the highest of 13-03-2020 because there was good selling(resistances) between 9955-10142 on that day.
It means that follow up consolidation is firstly required for moving and sustaining above 10142 and if fresh selling develops in next week and Nifty sustains below Previous 28 Sessions trading range highest(9602) then that will mean again sideways market between 7512-9889 and break out of 30-04-2020 will be understood only sentiments driven false break out.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(13-Mar-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Mar-2020):- |
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1- 10% Lower circuit filter triggered in first 3 minutes
2- Nifty recovered 1604.25 points from lower levels
3- Selling between 9955-10142(Immediate Resistances)
4- Whole day actual trading between 8556-10159
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As WHO declared the worldwide outbreak of the new Coronavirus a pandemic therefore all the Global markets crashed and resultant Nifty triggered 10% lower circuit filter within first 3 minutes on 13-03-2020. As soon as market opened after circuit filter then Nifty recovered more than 600 points within first 10 minutes and after up moves remains continued as well as Nifty gained 1604.25 points from lower levels.
Although closing was near the higher levels of the day but sentiment improved due to some positive news flow during trading hours that day therefore selling developed between 9955-10142 and Nifty tested as well as closed within this range on 30-04-2020. As 9955-10142 is immediate Resistance of Nifty therefore complete fresh consolidation is firstly required for moving and sustaining above 10142.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(30-Apr-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Apr-2020):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Up moves after gap up strong opening with downward corrections
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Consolidation between 9770-9834
5- Sharp up in last hour
6- Whole day actual trading between 9732-9889
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As sentiment turned heated after strong Global markets therefore strong gap up opening and after that up moves with downward corrections also but higher levels some profit booking was seen through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel hence down moves seen in Mid-session. These down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel and after that consolidation was also seen between 9770-9834 therefore sharp up moves in last hour and closing was near the higher levels of the day.
As minor selling at higher levels and whole day good consolidation as wel as good selling not seen yet therefore view will not be Bearish only from intraday charts paterns formations.
Conclusions
(After Putting All Studies Together)
1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is up.
3- Short term trend is up.
As Dow Jones slipped more than 900 points after Indian markets closing last Thursday and SGX Nifty has moved down more than 500 Points in last 2 sessions therefore weaker gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets also if same depressing sentiment persists till next Monday morning also.
Wave-B is very much on and no confirmation of its completion yet. As going Wave-B tested upper band of Bollinger Band and Short Term indicator(Stochastic) has also moved into Over bought zone therefore strong signals of short term correction beginning in next week but intraday charts have not shown sufficient selling patterns yet therefore fresh selling patterns are firstly required for decisive down moves beginning which may be seen at lower levels also if most depressing sentiments led weaker opening will be seen.
Fibonacci retracement levels Wave-B and all the 8 supports of Wave-B have been updated above and those levels should be watched in next week for Very Short up moves and until Nifty will not sustain above last resistances(9955-10142) of previous 30 sessions trading range after complete fresh cosolidation till then decisive up moves will not be seen as well as Nifty will be understood sideways within last 29 sessions trading range(7511-9889).
If Global markets led crashing like situation remains continued in next week then trades should be between above given 8 supports/retracement levels one by one and top of last 29 sessions trading range(9889)