More than 20% Rally of Nifty and up moves above 10000 if Coronavirus situation does not worsen
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 30 to Apr 03,2020)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Corrective Waves)
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Mar-2020):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A continuation with recent bottom formation at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
3- Indications of Wave-B formations after last 10 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 after rock bottom supports development between 7512-7970 in 3 sessions from 23-03-2020 to 25-03-2020
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Corrective Waves)
Corrective Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" continuation after impulsive Wave-5 completion at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020. Although no confirmation of Wave-A completion and Wave-B beginning but its 1st signal developed after last 10 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 and rock bottom supports formation between 7512-7970 in 3 sessions from 23-03-2020 to 25-03-2020.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Mar-2020):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of corrective Wave-A(7511.1 to 12430.50):-
1- 13.0%- 8150.62 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 8672.08 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 8839.34 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 9390.31 (Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 9970.80 (Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 10551.30 (Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 10989.10
8- 76.4%- 11269.50
9- 78.6%- 11377.70
10-88.6%- 11869.70
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
As 27.0% Retracement has been completed also therefore 2nd signal of corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B formation to move towards above mentioned retracement levels
Nifty
Last 10 Sessions intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 16 to Mar 27,2020):- |
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1- Selling(Resistances) in last 10 sessions between
A- 9254-9403
B- 9430-9584
C- 8846-9038
D- 8772-8883
E- 8760-8873
F- 8663-8733
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 10 sessions between
A- 8524-8627
B- 8479-8553
C- 8179-8423
D- 8087-8360
E- 7833-8024
F- 7512-7970
3- 10 Sessions actual trading between 7512-9602
Conclusions from 10 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Last 10 sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 with above mentioned higher levels 6 resistances and lower levels 6 supports therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range,finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next big moves which should be watched in the coming week/weeks.
As rock bottom support has developed between 7512-7970 in first 3 sessions of previous week therefore expected that this range will not be easily broken down.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(27-Mar-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Mar-2020):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Sharp fall
4- Whole day actual trading between 8523-9038
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As package news with Repo rate cut expectation by RBI Governor at 10:00 AM was in limelight since last Friday morning therefore more than 3% huge gap up opening last Friday but Nifty started slipping from higher levels after first 15 minutes up moves.
Although sharp up moves were seen after Repo rate,stock markets and Industries favoring announcements but again market could not sustain at higher levels and slipped because sentiment turned heated after such nice announcements and selling also can not be ruled out on the back of this sentiments. As these Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore some consolidation was also seen at lower levels because after this again Down moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel.
As lower levels some consolidation therefore up moves were seen after 01:30 PM despite much weaker opening of European markets and Dow Jones's Future was trading more than 250 down. As these up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore again more than 200 points sharp fall was seen after 02:30 PM.
Both higher levels selling and lower levels consolidation was seen last Friday therefore firstly sustaining beyond last Friday trading range(8523-9038) should be watched in the beginning of next week for first signal of next decisive moves beginning confirmations.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is down.
3- Short term trend has turned up after more than 1500 points recovery from lower levels in previous week.
Corrective Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" continuation and no indication of its completion yet but emergence of following 2 signals of its completion in previous week:-
1- Rock bottom supports formation between 7512-7970.
2- 27.0% Retracement completion of Wave-1 correction.
Nifty strongly recovered 1604.25 points from lower levels on 13-03-2020 and after that turned sideways as well as trading between 7512-9602 for the last 10 Sessions,finally sustaining beyond this range will form next big moves. As above mentioned 2 signals of Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning.
Extremely fast Price-wise correction of Wave-A has almost been completed at 7511.10 but Time-wise is still left which will be seen in the coming weeks and months because market will firstly wait for complete normalization Coronavirus situation and after that economic and Industrial growth coming on track which will take its own time and that may be much longer also.
As above situation therefore Nifty may remain sideways between 7512-9602 and will take its own time but if Coronavirus situation does not worsen to extreme levels in India then more than 20% rally of Nifty and up moves above 10000 will be seen without slipping below 7511.10.