Good Budget will mean strong rally towards 13870.95
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 20 to Jan 24,2020)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jan-2020):- |
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1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with new life time high formation at 12389 on 16-01-2020
Nifty-Last 5 Sessions intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 13 to Jan 17,2020):- |
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1- Last 5 sessions sideways trading within 110 points between 12279-12389 with lower lower levels supports,higher levels selling and Mixed Patterns formation.
2- 5 Sessions actual trading between 12279-12389
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(17-Jan-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jan-2020):- |
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1- Sharp up after weak opening
2- Selling between 12370-12385
3- More than 4 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation between 12345-12371
4- Whole day actual trading between 12322-12385
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is sideways between 12279-12389 for the last 5 sessions.
Conclusions from 5 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told in previous Weekly Outlook(Jan 10 to Jan 17,2020) on 11-01-2020 in "Finally rally continuation after Very Short Term correction":-
finally on going rally continuation will be expected after Very Short Term sideways time wise correction
Very Short Term sideways time wise correction was told for this week and Nifty corrected sideways in all 5 previous sessions of this week between 12279-12389.
As last 5 sessions trading was with lower lower levels supports,higher levels selling and Mixed Patterns formation between 12279-12389 therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next trend within and near about this range as well as finally sustaining beyond this range will form next Short/Intermediate Term Trend which should be watched in next week for confirmations.
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although sharp up moves were seen after weaker opening but higher levels selling developed therefore slipped into negative zone and last more than 4 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation was seen between 12345-12371.
As firstly volatility and after that Mixed Patterns formation therefore one sided trading positions formations will not be considered and firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this range as well finally valid break out of last Friday trading range(12322-12385) will generate first strong signal of next trend.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Impulsive Wave-5 is on and Nifty is moving towards its maximum target at 13870.95.
Calculation of maximum target of Nifty at 13870.95 is as follows:-
Impulsive Wave-1 gained=2142.90 points(8968.70-6825.80)
Impulsive Wave-3 gained=3866.40 points(11760.20-7893.80)
Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 2154.25 points till 28-11-2019(12158.80-10004.55)
As according to Elliott Wave theory Wave-5 can not gain more points than Wave-3 gained therefore on going impulsive Wave-5 will gain lesser points than 3866.40.
Impulsive Wave-5 started from 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 and it has to gain less than 3866.40 points therefore maximum target of on going impulsive Wave-5 is 13870.95(10004.55+3866.40)
Bulls are ruling in Indian Stock Markets and new life time highest was formed last Thursday. As no selling pattern formation on EOD charts till now therefore technically on going rally continuation will be considered and until complete selling patterns will not develop on EOD charts till then any deeper correction will not be seen.
As Short Term indicators have turned overbought and Oscillators are also showing negative divergence therefore emergence of Short Term correction possibility. Nifty traded sideways within 110 points between 12279-12389 in last 5 sessions of previous week which is a signal of time wise correction beginning and that may remain continued in next week also. In fact Indian markets are now preparing for post Union Budget 2020-21 moves and now first indication of those moves will be derived from sustaining beyond last 5 sessions trading range(12279-12389).
As on going impulsive Wave-5 may move up to 13870.95 therefore good Budget on 1st Feb 2020 will mean strong rally will be seen towards it and before that nifty may prepare within and near about last 5 sessions trading range(12279-12389).