Rally Continuation Expectations towards its Minimum Target at 8543.65
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jul 04 to Jul 08,2016)
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Jul-2016):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(8294.95 on 07-06-2016)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(7927.05 on 24-06-2016)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8356.75 on 01-07-2016
Sideways corrections of whole Post-Budget Rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Jul-2016):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8356.75 on 01-07-2016
5- Sideways corrections after every 2/3 sessions up moves
6- Previous 25 sessions sideways trading range(8064-8295) broken down on 24-06-2016 but not sustaining below it and moved up after lowest formation at 7927.05
7- Previous 25 sessions sideways trading range(8064-8295) broken out and closing above it at 8328.35 on 01-07-2016
Intra Day Chart Analysis(01-07-2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jul-2016):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Minor selling patterns formation between 8345-8355
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Intraday corrections
4- Whole day actual trading between 8309-8356
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As Global markets cues were blasting therefore strong gap up opening and consolidation was also seen through sufficient intraday corrections and Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels but minor selling patterns formation also at higher levels of the day therefore some more consolidation is required for sustaining above day's highest. As both buying and selling patterns formations last Friday therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within or near about day's trading range(8309-8356) in the beginning of next week but high possibility of on going rally continuation because more consolidation patterns formations than selling patterns.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Long Term Trend is up through confirmation of sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7863).
2- Intermediate Term Trend was sideways within previous 25 sessions most time trading range(8064-8295) but first signal of its turning up through closing above it at 8328.35 after intraday highest formation at 8356.75 on 01-07-2016.
3- Short Term Trend has turned up after post Brexit strong rally.
It has been seen seen since the beginning of Post Budget-2016/17 Rally that market has corrected and consolidated within sideways trading range after every 2/3 sessions up moves,same was seen on 01-07-2016 also when previous 25 sessions sideways trading range(8064-8295) broken out and closing above it at 8328.35. It is confirm that once sustaining above 8295 will mean fresh rally towards following next resistances:-
1- 8470-8520
2- 8575-8652
As some higher levels intraday selling patterns formation and Bearish "Shooting Star Candle" formation on 01-07-2016 therefore some consolidation is firstly required in next week for fresh rally beginning and sustaining above last 25 sessions highest(8295).
As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5". Impulsive Wave-3 is on and it should gain more points than Wave-1 gained.
Wave-i of Wave-3 gained 8294.95-7678.35=616.60 Points
Wave-iii of Wave-3 started from 7927.05 and and as per Elliott Wave theory it should gain minimum 616.60 points because it can not be shorter than Wave-i of Wave-3 therefore its minimum target is at:-
8543.65=7927.05(Wave-iii of Wave-3 started)+616.60(Wave-i of Wave-3)
As some selling patterns formations on 01-07-2016 therefore only sustaining above last 25 sessions highest(8295) should be firstly watched in next week because that will mean Nifty towards minimum target of 24-06-2016 started Wave-ii of Wave-3 at 8543.65. Indian markets are Bullish and expected that finally rally will remain continued towards and above 8543.65 after follow up consolidation in the coming 1/2 sessions.