Firstly watch Most Crucial Support in Next FOMC News led Week
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jun 13 to Jun 17,2016)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jun-2016):-
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1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8294.95 on 07-06-2016
5- Short Term Correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8162.85 on 10-06-2016
6- Long Term Trend turning up confirmation after confirmation of sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7830)
Sideways corrections of whole rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jun-2016):-
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1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8294.95 on 07-06-2016
5- Sideways corrections after every 2/3 sessions up moves
6- Sideways correction continuation for the last 10 sessions
Previous 10 Sessions sideways trading
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 30 to Jun 10,2016):-
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1- Higher levels selling and lower levels consolidation in last 10 sessions.
2- 10 Sessions sideways trading between 8134-8295
Intra Day Chart Analysis(10-06-2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Jun-2016):-
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1- Huge volatility in first 4 hours
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8163-8192
4- Whole day actual trading between 8163-8265
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Long and Intermediate Term Trends are up and Short Term Trend is sideways for the last 10 sessions between 8134-8295. As both higher levels selling and lower levels consolidation in last 10 sessions and Nifty closed within this range at 8170.05 last Friday therefore still Nifty will understood sideways between 8134-8295.
Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-
1- 8163-8192
2- 8156-8177
3- 8112-8138
As supports are upto 8112 therefore finally its valid break down will be correction beginning confirmation towards the top of previous 28 Sessions sideways trading range highest(7992).
Although Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day last Friday but intraday consolidation patterns were seen that day therefore until fresh selling will not develop in next week till then Nifty will not sustain below 8112.
Following resistances were updated on 29-05-2016 in "Minimum Target of Nifty at 8844.55":-
1- 8260-8315
2- 8470-8520
3- 8575-8652
Nifty faced resistance within 1st resistance range(8260-8315) in previous week and closed below it at 8170.05 after highest formation within it at 8294.95. As selling was also seen within it therefore 1st resistance range has become stronger and until Nifty will not sustain above 8315 after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves also will not be seen.
FOMC meet in next week and all the Global markets will react on it till next Thursday. Indian markets will also prepare near about or between 8112-8315 for post FOMC decisive moves in the next 3 sessions of coming week. As high volatility can not be ruled out due to FOMC therefore finally sustaining beyond 8112-8295 will produce next strong moves.
As Nifty is trading and closing above the lowest of last support(8112) for the last 10 sessions therefore it has become most crucial support now and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in next FOMC news led week for following decisive moves:-
1- Finally sustaining above 8112 after complete follow up consolidation will mean fresh rally beginning towards the top(8295) of last 10 sessions trading range but decisive up moves will be seen only after valid break out of 1st resistance range(8315).
2- Finally sustaining below 8112 after complete follow up selling will mean little deeper but Short Term correction of that rally which started from 7715.80 on 24-05-2016 and completed at 8252.05 on 08-05-2016. Retracement levels of this rally are as follows:-
1- 13.0%- 8182
2- 23.6%- 8125
3- 27.0%- 8107
4- 38.2%- 8046(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7983(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7920(Crucial)