Crucial Levels Breaking Down will confirm Deeper Correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Aug 29 to Sep 02,2016)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Aug-2016):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave 1 of fresh Rally beginning after 12 months correction completion at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7583.70 on 14-03-2016)
3- Wave-2(7405.20 on 16-03-2016)
4- Wave-3(8288.90 on 08-06-2016)
5- Wave-4(7927.10 on 24-06-2016)
6- Wave-5(8728.40 on 09-08-2016)
7- Previous 27 sessions sideways trading between 8518-8728 from 25-07-2016
8- Previous 9 sessions sideways trading range(8580-8687) broken down on 26-08-2016
Fibonacci Retracement levels of Post Budget 2016-2017 Rally(6826-8728)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Aug-2016):-
 |
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1- 13.0%- 8480
2- 23.6%- 8279
3- 27.0%- 8214
4- 38.2%- 8001(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7777(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7552(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 7383
8- 76.4%- 7274
9- 78.6%- 7233
10-88.6%- 7042
Intra Day Chart Analysis(26-08-2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Aug-2016):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- All Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 8548-8622
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day down moves but all in Bullish Falling Channels therefore an indication of some up moves in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is sideways for the last 27 sessions between 8518-8728
Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-
1- 8602-8635
2- 8658-8687
3- 8686-8710
4- 8708-8723
Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-
1- 8546-8565
2- 8518-8540
3- 8476-8506
4- 8448-8463
Post Budget Rally started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and now it is on with its Wave-5 highest formation at 8728.40 on 09-08-2016. As oscillators have turned overbought on weekly Charts and some have started to show negative divergence also therefore possibility of Intermediate Term Correction is very much on and its first indication was seen on 26-08-2016 through breaking down of last 9 sessions sideways trading range(8580-8687). Although closing was below the lowest of last 9 sessions trading range lowest(8580) at 8572.55 but intraday charts have not shown fresh selling patterns and some intraday consolidation was also seen therefore some up moves above 8580 can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week.
It should be kept in mind that correction beginning confirmation will mean correction after Wave-5 completion therefore possibly deeper correction of whole Post Budget rally(6826-8728) will be seen according to above mentioned Fibonacci Retracement levels and its beginning confirmation will be according to valid break down of following levels:-
1- Previous 9 sessions trading range(8580-8687) will be first strong indication
2- Previous 27 sessions trading range(8518-8728) will be confirmation.
Certainly deeper correction is very much due but confirmation is also required from above mentioned levels because Post Budget Rally is having history of fresh moves after sideways market therefore confirmation is must from above mentioned crucial levels breaking down.