Valid Break Out of 7678-7777 will Generate One Sided Big Moves
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 09 to May 13,2016)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-May-2016):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5(on Long Chart) beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Firstly 10 sessions sideways trading between 7405.15-7583.70
3- Secondly 16 sessions sideways trading between 7516.85-7777.60
4- Thirdly 11 Sessions actual trading between 7777.30-7992
5- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-5(on Long Chart) beginning after top formation at 7992 on 28-04-2016
6- 11 Sessions trading range forcefully broken down on 03-05-2016 amid on going correction
7- Last 4 sessions closing below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7776).
8- Correction continuation with Recent bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-5 formations at 7678.35 on 06-05-2016
Fibonacci Retracement Levels of on going correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-May-2016):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
2- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-5(on Long Chart) beginning after top formation at 7992 on 28-04-2016
3- Correction continuation with Recent bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-5 formations at 7678.35 on 06-05-2016
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
It had been the peculiar character of post Budget 2016-17 rally was that Nifty turned sideways after every 1/2 sessions decisive up moves. Nifty remained sideways in 37 sessions within 3 different ranges and finally Third trading range(7777.30-7992) broken down on 03-05-2016 after correction beginning from 7992 on 28-04-2016. Now correction is on with last 4 sessions closing below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7776) which is Long Term Trend turning down indication also.
Correction is on to correct post Budget 2016-17 rally according to following Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-1(6826-7992):-
1- 13.0%- 7840
2- 23.6%- 7716
3- 27.0%- 7677
4- 38.2%- 7546(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7409(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7271(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 7167
8- 76.4%- 7101
9- 78.6%- 7075
10-88.6%- 6958
Correction on post Budget 2016-17 rally is on and no confirmation of its completion yet but last 3 sessions trading just above 27.0% retracement level between 7678-7777 with consolidation patterns formations within this range and once sustaining above 7777 will be strong indication of on going correction completion which should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week because that will be Long Term Trend turning up confirmation also after sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7776).
It is confirm that finally valid break out of 7678-7777 will generate one sided big moves in next week because:-
1- Above 7777 will mean strong indication of Post Budget 2016-17 Rally's correction completion and possibility of fresh rally above the top of Rally(7992)
2- Below 7678 will mean fresh and sharp down moves towards next supports above 7517.