7518-7644 Will decide the Fate of on going Post Budget Rally Correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 11 to Apr 13,2016)
Waves Structure of on going Pull Back Rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Apr-2016):-
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1- Pull Back Rally beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Recent top of Pull Back rally formations at 7777.60 on 31-03-2016
3- 11 Sessions trading between 7582-7777 and this range broken down on 07-04-2016
4- Correction of Pull Back rally continuation with recent bottom formations at 7526.70 on 08-04-2016
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
That Pull Back Rally which begun from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 completed at 7777.60 on 31-03-2016 and correction started which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 7526.70 on 08-04-2016.
Intra Day Chart Analysis(08-04-2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Apr-2016):-
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1- Support between 7527-7542
2- Selling between 7552-7569(Immediate Resistances)
3- Whole day actual trading between 7527-7569
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told on 07-04-2016 in "Finally fresh up Moves after follow up consolidation amid Global markets Bearishness":-
1- Dow Jones is now trading more than 120 points down and all the European markets are also in Red
2- finally fresh up moves will be seen after follow up consolidation near about and between 7536-7635
3- because last 2 sessions intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns formations.
Although most Asian markets were too much down after deep Red closing of US and all European markets on 08-04-2016 but Indian markets opened flat also closed in Green because of consolidation patterns formations in previous 2 sessions.
Certainly Indian markets out performed Global markets and also got supports at lower levels but good selling was seen between 7552-7569 therefore it will be immediate resistance of Nifty and until Nifty will not sustain above it after fresh consolidation till then next decisive up moves above 7569 will not be seen as well as some down will be seen despite last Friday closing near the higher levels of the day.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Short Term Trend has turned down after slipping below last 11 sessions trading range(7582)
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up which will be down after sustaining above 7405.
3- Long Term Trend is down which will be up after sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7766)
As following reasons therefore view turned cautious:-
1- 11 Sessions trading between 7582-7777 at the top of Pull Back Rally and this range was broken down on 07-04-2016.
2- Last 2 sessions closing below 11 Sessions range.
3- Intraday selling patterns formations were seen last Friday.
Next immediate supports are between 7518-7542 and valid break down of 7518 will mean 11 Sessions trading range(7582-7777) broken down confirmations and resultant deeper correction will be seen towards following next supports:-
1- 7410-7443
2- 7347-7375
Fibonacci Retracement levels of Post-Budget Rally(6826-7777) are as follows:-
1- 13.0%- 7,653
2- 23.6%- 7,552
3- 27.0%- 7,520
4- 38.2%- 7,413(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7,301(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7,189(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 7,104
8- 76.4%- 7,050
9- 78.6%- 7,029
10-88.6%- 6,934
As both supports and resistances between 7518-7644 and finally this range will decide the fate of on going Post Budget Rally correction therefore firstly should be watched in the beginning of next week because:-
1- Finally below 7518 will mean deeper correction of Post Budget Rally because that will be 11 sessions(7582-7777) trading range broken down confirmation also.
2- Finally above 7644 will mean Post Budget Rally correction completion and fresh up moves beginning towards and above 7777.