Short Term up moves Expectations with confirmation through 6869-7252
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 29 to Mar 04,2016)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Feb-2016):-
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1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-A(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2 of Wave-A(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3 of Wave-A(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4 of Wave-A(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-5 of corrective Wave-A completion(7940.30 on 12-06-2015) and Wave-B beginning
7- Wave-B completion and corrective Wave-C beginning(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
8- Wave-1 of Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
9- Wave-2 of Wave-C(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
10- Wave-3 of Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 6869.00 on 12-02-2016 and Pull Back Rally beginning
11- Wave-1 of Pull Back Rally completion at 7252.40 on 22-02-2016 and its correction beginning
12- Wave-2 of Pull Back Rally at 6961.40 on 25-02-2016 and Up moves beginning with higher bottom formation.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
'ABC' correction of that rally is on which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015. Now Wave-3 of Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 6869.00 on 12-02-2016 and after that Pull Back Rally begun and its Wave-1 finished at 7252.40 on 22-02-2016. Its corrective Wave-2 started which completed at 6961.40 on 25-02-2016,in this manner higher bottom formation was seen near the lowest of correction which is an indication of Short Term up moves in the coming week.
Nifty-Micro Analysis of 15 Sessions Intra Day Chart
(Feb 08 to Feb 26,2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 08 to Feb 26,2016):-
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1- Gap down on 09-02-2016
2- Gap down on 10-02-2016
3- 13 Sessions sideways market between 6869-7252
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
13 Sessions sideways market between 6869-7252 and once valid break out of this range will confirm next strong Intermediate Term Trend which may be bigger also because 13 is a Fibonacci Number. As it will be little bigger range break out therefore once sustaining above 7252 will mean strong indication of that big correction which at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015.
Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 Sessions Intra Day Chart
(Feb 24 to Feb 26,2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 24 to Feb 26,2016):-
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1- Minor selling between 7060-7080 on 24-02-2016
2- Minor selling between 7075-7090 on 24-02-2016
3- All the down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 24-02-2016
4- Mixed Patterns between 6998-7028 on 25-02-2016
5- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-02-2016
6- Mixed Patterns between 6980-7008 on 25-02-2016
7- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 26-02-2016
8- Consolidation Patterns between 6986-7008 on 26-02-2016
9- Up moves with intraday correction on 26-02-2016
10- Minor selling between 7041-7051 on 26-02-2016
11- 3 Sessions actual trading between 6962-7090
Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Detailed analysis of 26-02-2016 has been posted below and just click following topic links for detailed analysis of intraday charts of 24-02-2016 and 25-02-2016:-
1- For 24-02-2016- Firstly Watch valid 6965-7090
2- For 25-02-2016- Pull Back Rally Expectations amid High Volatility
It is very much clear from the last 3 sessions trading that more consolidation developed at lower levels in comparison to higher levels selling in last 3 sessions therefore strong indications of up moves above last 3 sessions highest(7090).
Intra Day Chart Analysis(29-02-2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Feb-2016):-
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1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation Patterns between 6986-7008(Immediate Supports)
3- Up moves with intraday correction
4- Minor selling between 7041-7051
5- Whole day actual trading between 6986-7052
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and after that lower levels good consolidation as well as some up moves with intraday correction therefore up moves above last Friday highest(7052.90) will be seen. As minor selling was also seen in last hours between 6986-7052 so Nifty has to consolidate near about this range for decisive up moves but finally up moves are expected after follow up consolidations
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Just click following topic links and understand the technical reasons of on going correction and for detailed analysis of EOD charts of previous rallies from 2008 as well as crucial Patterns formations during on going correction:-
1- Posted on 06-09-2015- "Next Target of Nifty at 7104.30
2- Posted on 13-09-2015- "Finally correction continuation towards 7104/6761"
3- Posted on 07-01-2016- "Correction Continuation towards 7104/6761"
4- Posted on 01-02-2016- "Pull Back rally continuation after follow up consolidation"
5- Posted on 07-02-2016- "Pull Back Rally continuation require confirmations from 7448-7479 under Volatile Global Markets"
6- Posted on 15-02-2016- "Pull Back rally Expectations but Trend Reversal after Sustaining above Most crucial Levels"
7- Posted on 22-02-2016- "Firstly Sideways Market within Crucial Levels"
Finally correction continuation towards 7104/6761 was told on 13-09-2015 and recent bottom formation at 6869.00 which is just above 6761. Certainly correction is very much on and no confirmation of its completion yet but lower levels consolidation with higher bottom formations were seen in last 11 sessions and some consolidation also developed in last 3 sessions therefore Nifty is well poised for Short Term up moves in the beginning of next week.
Next resistances of Nifty are as follows;-
1- 7190-7252(Strong)
2- 7282-7321
3- 7480-7512
4- 7556-7600
Next supports of Nifty are as follows which are sufficiently strong also:-
1- 6965-7025
2- 6869-6945
Expected that Nifty will move up and test above mentioned first resistance range but complete follow up consolidation is required for its crossing because it is strong resistance range. Once sustaining above 7252 will mean strong rally possibility because that will be confirmation of 13 sessions range break out also.
As on going 11 months correction is with Bullish Flag formations therefore sustaining above 13 sessions range will mean strong possibility of Bullish Flag validity resultant emergence of strong possibilities for fresh up moves above life time high(9119.20).
As Union Budget 2016/17 at 11:00 AM on 24-02-2016 and opposition attitude had been to disrupt parliament also therefore such uncertainly may result high volatility,for precaution valid break out of last 13 sessions range(6869-7252) should also be watched for next Trend confirmations.
Although no confirmation of 11 months correction completion yet but lower levels consolidation in last 11 sessions therefore Short Term up moves are expected in next week and that may convert into Intermediate Term also if sustains above 7252.