Confirmation from Only One Level will mean Fresh Strong Rally
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jul 13 to Jul 17 ,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):- |
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1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
12- Pull Back Rally with recent top formation at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015 and its correction continuation with its recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that its 5 waves correction started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and now Pull Back Rally continuation with its Wave-i completion at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015 and its corrective Wave-ii continuation with its recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015.
Wave-5 with correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-
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1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
3- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
4- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
5- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
6- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
7- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-i(8561.35 on 07-07-2015)
9- Wave-ii continuation with its recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Wave-5 begun after Wave-4 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 which completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 which is just below the bottom of Wave-4(7961.35) and strong Pull Back Rally begun which is a strong indication of correction completion.
Wave-i(Pull Back Rally) started after Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 which terminated at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015 and now its correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015,till now no confirmation of its completion.
Retracement levels of Wave-i(7940-8561)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-
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1- 13.0%- 8480
2- 23.6%- 8414
3- 27.0%- 8393
4- 38.2%- 8323(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 8250(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 8177(Crucial)
7- 70.0%- 8121
8- 76.4%- 8086
8- 78.6%- 8072
10-88.6%- 8010
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
38.2% retracement levels at 8323 has become most crucial because Nifty tested and formed bottom near about it in last 2 sessions and it finally sustaining it beyond will form next big moves.
3 confirmations of strong rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-
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1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Correction beginning
2- Corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally beginning
3- Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation
4- Bullish Flag Pattern broken out and last 15 sessions closing above it
5- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out and last 15 sessions closing above it
6- Last 16 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8224).
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Following 3 confirmations of strong rally after correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015:-
1- The correction which started from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 was in Bullish Flag Pattern which has been broken out and last 15 sessions sustaining above it therefore first confirmation of correction completion and fresh Bullish market beginning.
2- As last 16 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8224) therefore Long Term Trend turning up confirmation and fresh rally beginning as well.
3- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out and last 15 sessions closing above it therefore correction completion confirmation.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(Jul 09 & Jul 10,2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 09 & Jul 10,2015)
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1- Minor selling at higher levels on 09-07-2015
2- More than 5 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 09-07-2015
3- Consolidation between 8316-8334(Immediate Supports) on 10-07-2015
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 10-07-2015
5- 2 Sessions actual trading between 8316-8377
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although higher levels minor selling on 09-07-2015 but good consolidation patterns formations in last 2 sessions also therefore technically strong indication of fresh rally in next week but Indian completely under performed Global markets in following manner:-
1- Shanghai closed more than 11% up in last 2 sessions.
2- Hang Seng closed more than 5% up in last 2 sessions.
3- Most European markets traded during Indian trading hours and closed more than 5% up in last 2 sessions.
4- Dow's Futures traded during Indian trading hours and closed more than 300 points up in last 2 sessions.
When there was problems from Greece and China then Indian market moved down with Global markets but did not participated strong Global markets rally and remained flat in last 2 sessions therefore in this manner Indian markets completely under performed Global markets and selling on the back of such strong Global cues led heated sentiments can not be ruled out in last 2 sessions.
As last 2 sessions technical patterns and markets psychology are showing contrary indications therefore valid break out of last 2 sessions actual trading range(8316-8377) will decide next decisive moves. Next supports are lying between 8300-8325 and finally sustaining beyond 8300-8377 will decide next big trend therefore should be firstly watched in next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
All Trends are as follows:-
1- Short Term Trend is down
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend turned up after last 16 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8224).
As above mentioned 3 confirmations of fresh strong rally and last 2 sessions testing as well as closing above 38.2% retracement levels(8323) therefore 38.2% retracement levels at 8323 has become most crucial support,finally sustaining it beyond will decide next trend.
EOD Charts are suggesting high possibility of fresh rally after Wave-ii correction completion at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015 and last 2 sessions intraday consolidation patterns formations are also suggesting it but Indian markets completely under performed Global markets and selling on the back of such strong Global cues led heated sentiments can not be ruled out in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining beyond 8300-8377 should be watched for next trend confirmations in next week.
4000 Points rally(5118.85-9119.20) correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Wave-i begun which completed at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015,now its correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015. Confirmation of on going correction completion is still required through sustaining beyond 8300-8377 and should be firstly watched in next week,once sustaining above only one level(8377) will mean fresh strong rally beginning towards and above life time high(9119.20) after 4000 points rally correction completion