Rally continuation towards Life Time High after Bullish Pattern formations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jun 29 to Jul 03,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jun-2015):- |
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1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
12- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8423.15 on 25-06-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after 5 waves formation and correction started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and now Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8423.15 on 25-06-2015.
Waves structure of on going 5 Waves correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jun-2015):-
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1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
7- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8,250.80 on 19-06-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
5 Waves of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally is on but correction completion confirmation is still required because Nifty has to correct 4000 points points 18 months rally and as such price-wise or time-wise correction has not been seen yet.
Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jun-2015):-
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1- Wave-4 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave-5 beginning
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Correction beginning
3- Corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally beginning
4- Wave-5 completely retraced in correction after slipping below 7961.35
5- Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
As Wave-5 completely retraced and whole correction was in Bullish Flag Pattern formation therefore emergence of correction completion strong signal at the bottom of correction at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015.
Fall Trend line of correction broken out
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jun-2015):-
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1- Wave-4 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave-5 beginning
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Correction beginning
3- Corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally beginning
4- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8423.15 on 25-06-2015
5- Last 6 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8204).
6- Fall Trend line of correction broken out and last 5 sessions closing above it.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Fall Trend line of correction broken out and last 5 sessions closing above it as well as last 6 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8204) therefore strong signals of Long Term Trend turning up after correction completion.
Last 4 sessions intraday charts Analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 23 to Jun 26,2015):-
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1- Selling between 8385-8398 on 23-06-2015
2- Selling between 8393-8421 on 24-06-2015
3- Consolidation between 8340-8372 on 25-06-2015
4- Consolidation between 8387-8405 on 25-06-2015
5- Consolidation between 8340-8380 on 26-06-2015
6- 4 Sessions actual trading between 8335-8423
Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although first 2 sessions selling but last 2 sessions good consolidations also in last 4 sessions therefore valid break out of last 4 sessions will be next trend confirmations and should be firstly watched in next week but finally up moves above 4 sessions highest(8423) is expected because good consolidation seen in last 2 sessions.
Intra Day Chart Analysis(29-06-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Jun-2015):-
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1- Consolidation between 8340-8380(Immediate Supports)
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8340-8408
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As negative news regarding Greece crisis therefore firstly negative zone trading and slipping from intraday higher levels after 11 AM but in Bullish Falling Channel and lower levels good consolidation also therefore finally up moves are expected above day's highest(8408.55) despite whatsoever solution of Greece financial problems on 27th and 28th June 2015.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8204) broken out and last 6 sessions closing above it as well as once 3%(8440) moves above it will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmations.
As Whole correction from 9119.20 to 7940.30 is in Bullish Flag Pattern formation and Falling Trend line of correction broken out as well as last 5 sessions closing above it therefore strong signals of fresh rally above life time high(9119.20) after that rally correction completion which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015.
Following confirmations are still required for 100% confirmation of correction completion:-
1- Valid break out of next resistances(8440-8486)
2- 3%(8440) Moves above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA breaking out level.
3- Intermediate Term Trend turning up through moving above 8505
Sustaining above next resistance range(8440-8486) will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmation and in that situation Intermediate Term Trend will also be up above 8505 therefore only break out of 8505 should be watched in the coming week for fresh rally towards life time high(9119.20) after all trends turning up confirmations.
As Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation , Falling Trend line of correction also broken out in previous week and last 2 sessions good intraday consolidations therefore expected that on going rally will remain continued above 8505 in the coming week but after fresh follow up consolidations because strong resistances are lying between 8440-8486