Only One Last Confirmation will result Much Much Strong Rally
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Oct 19 to Oct 23,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Oct-2015):- |
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1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
10- Rally continuation after 'ABC' correction completion with recent top formation at 8246.40 on 16-10-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 gained 4000 points and completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after many times new life times high formation and then that its 'ABC' correction started which completed at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 and now fresh rally is on with recent top formation at 8346.40 on 16-10-2015.
Waves structure of correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Oct-2015):-
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1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
5- Rally continuation after 'ABC' correction completion with recent top formation at 8246.40 on 16-10-2015
6- Strong signals of Long Term Trend turning up after forceful closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8183) on 16-10-2015.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
As correction started on 04-03-2015 from 9119.20 after 5 Waves completion of that 4000 points rally which started 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 therefore deeper correction was imminent which lasted 6 months from 04-03-2015 to 08-09-2015 in 'ABC' correction pattern.
Fresh rally started after 'ABC' correction completion at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 which is now in continuation with previous closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8183) at 8238.15. Last confirmation of correction completion is sustaining above 200 Day EMA which will mean fresh rally above life time high(9119.20)
37 Sessions trading range broken out confirmation
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 21 to Oct 16,2015):-
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1- 165 Points gap down opening on 24-08-2015
2- 27 Sessions actual trading between 7540-8092 from 24-08-2015 to 01-10-2015
3- 27 Sessions trading range broken out on 05-10-2015
4- 9 Sessions sideways market between 8089-8245
5- Previous closing near the top of 9 Sessions market
Conclusions from 37 Sessions intra day chart analysis
165 Points gap down opening on 24-08-2015 and after that Nifty remained sideways in next 27 Sessions between 7540-8092 from 24-08-2015 to 01-10-2015. This range was forcefully broken out on 05-10-2015 and after that last 9 sessions sideways market between 8089-8245 as well as previous closing near top of 9 sessions range.
As break out confirmation of 27 sessions range does mean fresh strong rally and that is expected after getting it.
Previous 10 Sessions sideways market Analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 05 to Oct 16,2015):-
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1- Forceful break out on 05-10-2015
2- Last 9 sessions Sideways market between 8089-8246 with higher levels selling and lower levels good buying
3- 9 Sessions actual trading between -
Conclusions from 10 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Last 9 sessions Sideways market between 8089-8246 with higher levels selling and lower levels good buying after 27 sessions range forceful break out on 05-10-2015
As strong rally in last hours of previous session and closing near the top of 9 Sessions range after new high(8246.40) formation of last 10 sessions range as well as closing above the last resistances(8185-8230) therefore strong indications of fresh rally after break out of 9 sessions range.
Intra Day Chart Analysis(19-10-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Oct-2015):-
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1- 4 Hours consolidation between 8148-8180(Immediate Supports)
2- Sharp 45 points up in 10 minutes
3- Whole day actual trading between 8148-8246
4- Strong rally in last hours on 16-10-2015
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As strong up moves in last hours after first 4 hours consolidation therefore it is a clear signal of rally continuation and until Nifty will not sustain below day's lowest after complete selling till then any decisive down moves will not be seen.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up
3- Long Term Trend is up but its confirmation is still required through sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8183).
As 'ABC' correction of that 4000 points rally was started which was 18 months long also therefore as such long correction was to be seen and that happened also through 1579 points and 6 months long down moves up to 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. In the same manner complete consolidation was also must for correction completion and that was also seen through 27 sessions sideways market near the bottom of correction between 7540-8092 from 24-08-2015 to 01-10-2015.
Forceful break out of 27 sessions sideways market was seen on 05-10-2015 but again market turned sideways between 8089-8246 in last 9 sessions. As strong rally was seen on 16-10-2015 after lower levels good consolidation and closing was also near the higher levels of last 9 sessions trading range with new 9 sessions intraday highest formations therefore rally continuation is expected in the beginning of next week.
Now all trends are up but only Long Term Trend turning up confirmation is still required through sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8183). As no selling signals have been seen yet therefore rally continuation will be seen but minor intraday or very short term correction may be seen any day because sentiment has turned heated after last Friday strong rally.
As 27 sessions trading range break out has got confirmation which means 4000 points rally correction completion also therefore only last confirmations through sustaining above 200 Day EMA(today at 8183) is left and that should be firstly watched for that strong rally which will remain continued much much above life time high(9119.20).