Just watch 7691 for on fresh Down Moves beginning towards 7104/6761
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Sep 21 to Sep 24,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Sep-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015
10- Pull back rally continuation with recent top formation at 8055 on 18-09-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
16 Months long 4000 Points strong rally from 28-08-2013 to 04-03-2015 between 5118.85-9119.20 with many times new life times high formation and after that its 'ABC' correction continuation but no confirmation of its completion yet and now Pull back rally continuation from 7539.50 with recent top formation at 8055 on 18-09-2015.
Waves structure of on going 'ABC' correction and Pull Back Rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Sep-2015):-
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1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-A(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2 of Wave-A(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3 of Wave-A(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4 of Wave-A(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-5 of corrective Wave-A completion(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
7- Wave-B completion and corrective Wave-C beginning(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
8- Wave-1 of Wave-C(7667.25 on 25-08-2015)
9- Wave-2 of Wave-C(8091.80 on 28-08-2015)
10- Wave-3 of Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
11- Pull back rally continuation with recent top formation at 8055 on 18-09-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Corrective Wave-3 of Wave-C is on with recent bottom formations at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 but after that Pull back rally beginning in previous weeks which is now in continuation with recent top formation at 8055 on 18-09-2015 and no confirmation of its completion yet.
Intra Day Chart Analysis(18-09-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Sep-2015):-
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1- Selling between 8023-8055(Immediate Resistances)
2- Whole day actual trading between 7956-8055
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As good selling at the higher levels of the day between 8023-8055 on the back of FOMC decision last Thursday therefore this range will be immediate resistance and until Nifty will not sustain above 8055 after complete consolidation till then next up moves above it will not be considered.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Long Term Trend is down
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 7539-8091
3- Short Term Trend is up
Detailed analysis of on going correction with immediate target at 7104.30 with Fibonacci Retracement levels have been updated in following topic on 06-09-2015 just click following topic link and go through:-
10 months huge Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations and its Neck line was broken down and last 9 sessions closing was below it also therefore target according to this at 6761 with calculations has already been updated in following topic on 13-09-2015,just click following topic link and go through:-
Following 3 selling ranges(resistances) were updated on 29-08-2015 in "Next Trend Confirmations through Crucial Levels amid Global Cues led Huge Volatility"
1- 7897-7930
2- 7995-8010
3- 8032-8055
Nifty retraced exactly from 8055 last Friday after FOMC news led higher levels good selling and Bearish Gravestone Doji candle formation was also seen on EOD chart therefore it is a strong signal of on going Pull Back Rally completion and fresh down moves beginning.
As some supports above 7540 therefore follow up complete selling is must for next down moves and if it develops in the beginning of next week then decisive down moves will be seen towards the lowest point(7540) of on going correction and possibility of slipping below it also can not be ruled out because next targets of on going correction are at 7104 and 6761.
Rising Channel formations from 09-09-2015 to 16-09-2015 between 7691-7914 and expected that Nifty will firstly trade within this range as well as prepare for next big moves. As finally valid break out of this range will decide the fate of on going Pull Back Rally and on going correction therefore should be firstly watched in next week for confirmations. As above mentioned target of on going correction has not been achieved yet therefore expected that follow up selling will develop and finally Nifty will slip below 7691 as well as fresh down moves will be seen towards 7104/6761 but for precautions firstly watch 7961 for confirmations.