Short Term correction Possibility in Next Week
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Aug 10 to Aug 14,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Aug-2015):- |
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1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- 7940.30 on 12-06-2015(Fresh Wave-i beginning after 5 Waves correction completion)
8- Wave-i(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-ii(8321.75 on 28-07-2015)
10- Wave-iii continuation with recent top formation at 8606.30 on 06-08-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that its 5 waves correction started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Wave-i started after 5 waves correction completion. Now Wave-iii continuation with recent top formation at 8606.30 on 06-08-2015 after Wave-ii correction completion at 8321.75 on 28-07-2015.
Rally continuation after 5 waves correction completion
Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Aug-2015):-
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1- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-1(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)(Fresh Wave-i beginning after 5 Waves correction completion)
7- Wave-i(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
8- Wave-ii(8321.75 on 28-07-2015)
9- Wave-iii continuation with recent top formation at 8606.30 on 06-08-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
5 Waves correction begun after Wave-5 life time high formation at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 which completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and fresh rally started which is in continuation after its 1st Short term correction completion 8321.75 on 28-07-2015. Now its Wave-iii continuation with recent top formation at 8606.30 on 06-08-2015
Signals of Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations
Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Aug-2015):-
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1- Wave-1(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)(Fresh Wave-i beginning after 5 Waves correction completion)
2- Wave-i(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
3- Wave-ii(8321.75 on 28-07-2015)
4- Wave-iii continuation with recent top formation at 8606.30 on 06-08-2015
5- Signals of Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations beginning
6- Last 3 Sessions sideways market between 8546-8606
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Rally continuation after correction completion with recent top formation at 8654.75 on 23-07-2015 and signals of Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations beginning with its neckline near about 8321.75 therefore view will be cautious in next week.
Last 3 sessions Sideways market
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 05 to Aug 07,2015):-
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1- Selling between 8566-8586 on 05-08-2015
2- Minor selling between 8568-8580 on 06-08-2015
3- Support between 8552-8562 on 06-08-2015
4- Volatility in last 2 hours between 8576-8606 on 06-08-2015
5- Selling between 8578-8595 on 07-08-2015
6- 3 Sessions actual trading between 8546-8606
Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Last 3 Sessions trading between 8546-8606 with lower levels some supports but good selling patterns formations were also seen therefore some decisive down moves are expected in the beginning of down moves.
Intra Day Chart Analysis(10-08-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Aug-2015):-
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1- Selling between 8578-8595(Immediate Resistances)
2- Whole day actual trading between 8553-8595
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As good selling between 8578-8595 therefore emergence of fresh decisive down moves expectations in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
All trends are up and now rally continuation with recent top formation at 8654.75 on 23-07-2015 but following technical points are suggesting cautious view:-
1- Last 3 sessions sideways market between 8546-8606 with good selling within this range.
2- Last 3 sessions selling just below last resistance range(8600-8654) of on going rally
3- Last 3 sessions trading is showing lower top formation of on going rally on EOD charts.
4- Last 3 sessions trading is showing signals of Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations beginning.
Technically last 3 sessions trading will be understood only sideways market between 8546-8606 but good selling was also seen within this range. Last resistances of on going rally are between 8600-8654 and selling was seen just below it therefore possibility of slipping below 8546 and Short Term correction beginning in the next week also.
As indications of Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations beginning also therefore follow up moves with sustaining beyond its neckline near about 8321.75 should also be watched in the coming weeks.
As Short Term correction beginning possibility therefore supports of previous rally between 7940-8654 should be watched in next week:-:-
1- 8500-8510
2- 8425-8448
3- 8310-8384
4- 8196-8250
5- 8048-8077
6- 8000-8015
7- 7940-7980
Previous rally between 7940-8654 will correct accordingly to following retracement levels;-
1- 13.0%-8561
2- 23.6%-8485
3- 27.0%-8461
4- 38.2%-8381(Crucial)
5- 50.0%-8297(Crucial)
6- 61.8%-8212(Crucial)
7- 70.0%-8149
8- 76.4%-8108
8- 78.6%-8092
10-88.6%-8021
As crucial retracement levels(38.2%,50.0% and 61.8%) are lying between 8212-8381 and these levels are also lying within above mentioned 3rd and 4th supports ranges(8196-8384) therefore strong possibility of on going correction completion within this supports range.
Strong resistances are between 8600-8654 and equally good supports are also between 8322-8384 therefore Nifty will not easily cross 8322-8654 and will firstly trade and prepare for next trend within this range in next week. As some selling in last 3 sessions and firstly Short Term correction beginning possibility therefore firstly sustaining beyond 8322 should be watched in next week.
Expected that Nifty will trade between 8322-8600 amid Short Term correction in next week and will prepare for next trend as well as finally sustaining beyond 8322-8654 will decide next big moves.