Firstly Bounce Back & finally Correction Continuation towards 7642.30
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jun 15 to Jun 19,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jun-2015):- |
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1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015
Waves structure of on going 5 Waves correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jun-2015):-
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1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-1 corrected 850.05 points
4- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
5- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
6- Wave-3 corrected 847.25 points
7- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
8- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015
9- Wave-3 has corrected 549.25 points
10- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8200)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Jun-2015):-
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1- Support and Consolidation between 7941-7967(Immediate Supports)
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 7941-7995
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although closing with minor gains on 12-06-2015 but whole day good consolidation and no selling patterns formations as well as Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore finally up moves are expected in the beginning of next week despite all European and US markets more than .62% down closing last Friday.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
All trends are down and Indian markets are in the firm grip of Bears as well as confirmations of 5 Waves correction in previous weeks therefore correction continuation will be considered and until complete consolidation will not happen on EOD charts till then correction completion will not be expected.
Wave-1 and Wave-3 have corrected almost 850 points and almost as such 850 points correction will be considered for on going Wave-5 also but on going Wave-5 will complete above 7642.30 because as per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5". Now corrective Wave-5 is on and it should not loose more points than Wave-3 lost.
Wave-3 lost=847.25 points(8844.40-7997.15)
It means on going corrective Wave-5 will loose less than 847.25 points which started from(8489.55). Therefore maximum target of on going Wave-5 will be:-
8489.55-847.25=7642.30
Wave-1 started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 and its 5th wave completed on 04-03-2015 at 9119.20 and 5 Waves correction begun,now its corrective Wave-5 is on with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015. As correction started on 04-03-2015 after 5 waves completion therefore Nifty will correct whole that move which started from 5118.85 and completed 9119.20 acoording to following Fibonacci retracement levels:-
1- 13.0%-8,598(Corrected)
2- 23.6%-8,174(Corrected)
3- 27.0%-8,038(Corrected)
4- 38.2%-7,590(Crucial)
5- 50.0%-7,118(Crucial)
6- 61.8%-6,646(Crucial)
7- 70.0%-6,290
8- 76.4%-6,062
8- 78.6%-5,974
10-88.6%-5,574
27.0% retracement has been completed and next crucial 38.2% retracement levels is at 7,590 which is below on going Wave-5 maximum target(7642.30). Expected that on going corrective Wave-5 will completed above 7642.30 but correction completion will be considered only after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8200) because its breaking down confirmation after last 8 sessions closing below it.
As Short Term Oscillators are oversold and intraday consolidation patterns formations also on 12-06-2015 therefore a bounce back will be considered in the beginning of next week. If follow up consolidation develops on next Monday then a Pull Back rally will be seen but until complete consolidation will not happen on EOD charts till then correction will not complete.
Firstly bounce back & finally correction continuation towards 7642.30 is expected in next week