Positive Surprise by RBI on 7th Apr will mean Strong Rally this time
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 06 to Apr 10,2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 20 to Apr 01,2015):- |
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1- 4 Sessions actual trading within 8521-8627 between 20/03/2015-25/03/2015
2- 4 Sessions range broken down on 26/03/2015 after the news of Saudi Arabia air strikes in Yemen.
3- 5 Sessions Volatility with both higher levels selling and equally good lower levels supports
4- Weekly closing at 8586.25 on 01-04-2015 which is between 4 Sessions range(8521-8627)
5- 9 Sessions actual trading between 8269-8627
Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Following Weekly Analysis Topic of previous week was updated on 28-03-2015
8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally
Pull Back Rally expectations was told and 334 Points Pull Back rally was seen in previous week as well as weekly closing of Nifty was at 8586.25 which if within mentioned range(8521-8627)
Although 4 Sessions actual trading range(8521-8627) was with good consolidation and minor selling but range broken down on 26/03/2015 after negative news of Saudi Arabia air strikes in Yemen therefore complete selling was required for sustaining below 8521. As on the contrary good lower levels consolidations and higher levels follow up consolidation was also seen in the next 5 Volatile Sessions after 26/03/2015 therefore not sustaining below 8521 and Weekly closing at 8586.25 between 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) and this range has become most crucial for deciding next trend.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Apr-2015):-
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1- Mixed Patterns between 8464-8499
2- Sudden jump after the announcement of "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020"
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8517-8542
4- Up moves in last hour between 8542-8603
5- Whole day actual trading between 8464-8603
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
First 3 hours negative zone trading with mixed patterns formations but sudden jump after the announcement of "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020". As Follow up consolidation between 8517-8542 after sudden jump and last hour up moves between 8464-8603 which is within mentioned 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) therefore emergence of fresh up moves expectations in the beginning of next week.
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2015):-
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1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- 334 Points Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8603.40 on 01-04-2015
Waves structure of Wave-5
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2015):-
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1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning
7- Wave-A(8612 on 16-03-2015)
8- Wave-B(8788.20 on 18-03-2015)
9- Wave-C(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
10- Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8603.40 on 01-04-2015
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Long Term Trend is up,Intermediate and Short Term Trends are down. The rally which started at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after its 5th Wave completion. Its 5th Wave was extended and its 5th Wave also completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction begun which completed at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015. Calculation of 'ABC' correction is as follows:-
9119.20(Wave-A top)
8612.00(Wave-A bottom)
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507.20(Wave-A corrected)
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8788.20(Wave-C top)
8269.15(Wave-C bottom)
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519.05(Wave-C corrected)
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Wave-C corrected almost same points as Wave-A corrected therefore confirmation of this 'ABC' wave completion.
As confirmation of 5th Wave completion of that impulsive Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 therefore until Nifty will not sustain above all time high(9119.20) till then correction possibility of whole this 4000.35 points rally can not be ruled out which started from 5118.85 and completed at 9119.20.
Certainly Pull Back Rally continuation and finally sustaining beyond 8269-9119 will decide the fate of on going correction. Supports and resistances within this range are as follows:-
Supports:-
1- 8517-8542
2- 8464-8499
3- 8382-8403
4- 8337-8356
5- 8269-8331
Resistances:-
1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096
9 Sessions actual trading between 8269-8627 and previous week closing within it at 8586.25 after lower lower levels good consolidations in last 4 sessions. As selling patterns have not developed yet therefore Pull Back Rally continuation is expected in the beginning of next week and once sustaining above 9 Sessions highest(8627) will mean strong rally towards above mentioned resistances.
As multiple supports and resistances are between 8269-9119 therefore expected that Nifty will remain sideways within this range in the coming couple of weeks and prepare for next big moves. Finally sustaining it beyond should be watched for next Big following trend:-
1- Sustaining above 9119 will mean fresh strong rally after less than 23.6% correction completion at 8269.
2- Sustaining below 8269 will mean correction continuation towards following retracement levels:-
23.6%- 8174
27.0%- 8038
38.2%- 7590
50.0%- 7118
61.8%- 6646
70.7%- 6290
76.4%- 6062
78.6%- 5974
88.6%- 5574
Most positive news of Land acquisition ordinance re-promulgation on 3rd Apr and RBI Credit Policy on 7th Apr,if positive surprise by Raghuram Rajan then strong rally will be seen because market is well prepared for it this time after good consolidation at lower levels in last 4 sessions.