Sustaining beyond 8672 will decide the fate of on going Correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 16 to Mar 20,2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Mar-2015):-
1- Continuous first hour slipping after strong opening
2- Selling between 8726-8761(Immediate Resistances)
3- Follow up selling between 8672-8700(Immediate Resistances)
4- Consolidation patterns at lower levels in last hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 8632-8869
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following most positive news before market opening on 13-03-2015:-
The insurance bill was passed by the Rajya Sabha on 12-03-2015, paving way for foreign companies to raise their stake in domestic insurance companies to 49 per cent. The passage of the bill is being hailed as a big positive for the country as it increases India's visibility among foreign investors.
Although above most positive news for which country was waiting from 2008 but Nifty closed 128 points down after slipping 237 points because sentiment turned highly enthusiastic after Insurance Bill passing in Rajya Sabha on 12-03-2015 therefore profit booking started immediately after opening on 13-03-2015 and Nifty could not sustain at higher levels.
Although 4 hours selling in sideways market and emergence of some more down moves possibilities but consolidation patterns formations at lower levels in last hours also therefore if follow up consolidation develops then fresh up moves will be seen but until complete consolidation will not happen till then fresh decisive up moves not be seen.
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1- Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern
2- Neckline at 8672 broken down after 4 hours sideways market selling just above it on 13-03-2015
Conclusions from 20 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 20 sessions and Neckline at 8672 broken down on 13-03-2015 therefore 8672 will be first resistance range. As 4 hours sideways market selling just above 8672 between 8672-8761 therefore complete consolidation is firstly required for fresh decisive up moves above this range
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Mar-2015):-
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1- Wave-iv of Wave-3 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and beginning of Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015
7- Wave-a(8913.45)
8- Wave-b(8669.45)
9- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formation at 8631.75 on 13-03-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 is extended because Nifty moves below 8669.45 and Waves have been recounted. Now Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation and its retracement levels are as follows:-
[0.130] 9,034.63(Retracement completed)
[0.236] 8,965.84(Retracement completed)
[0.270] 8,943.77(Retracement completed)
[0.382] 8,871.08(Retracement completed)
[0.500] 8,794.50(Retracement completed)
[0.618] 8,717.92(Retracement completed)
[0.707] 8,660.16(Retracement completed)
[0.764] 8,623.16
[0.786] 8,608.89
[0.886] 8,543.99
Now corrective Sub Wave-2 continuation and as per retracement levels it should complete near about or above 8,543.99
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Corrective Sub Wave-2 is on and expected that technically it should complete near about or above 8543 and impulsive Sub Wave-3 should start for fresh up moves above the top of Sub Wave-1(9119.20). As Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 20 sessions and Neckline at 8672 was broken down on 13-03-2015 therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in next week for:-
1- Correction completion above 8672 after fresh consolidation.
2- Correction continuation below 8672 after follow up selling.