Fresh Rally Immediate before or after Budget but after complete consolidation
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(24-02-2015)
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1- Selling between 8845-8869(Immediate Resistances)
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel near the higher levels
3- Last hours down moves with Bullish Falling Wedge formations.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8737-8869
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told on 21-02-2015 in "Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations":-
1- Nifty will firstly trade within or near about 8793-8913 amid high volatility and may slip also below 8793
2- Indian markets are well poised for Post Budget rally after high volatility and panic bottoms formations.
As was told 2 days before 100% same happened today in following manner:-
1- Nifty slipped and closed below 8793
2- Panic bottom formation after sharp 132 points fall from higher levels.
We "told for Finally Post Budget Rally" and "never told for Pre-Budget Rally" and also told following lines in "Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations":-
1- Both Feb. Derivative expiry and Union Budget in next week and sentiments will remain boiling as well as market will prepare and form positions for post Budget big moves.
2- post Budget big moves will be decided from coming 2/3 sessions intraday charts patterns formations
As mounting high expectations from Budget therefore sentiment was boiling and its cooling was necessary which was seen today after sharp down and closing near the lower levels of the day and it was necessary also for the beginning of consolidation process. Although sharp down after higher levels but following consolidation patterns were also seen:-
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel near the higher levels
2- Last hours down moves with Bullish Falling Wedge formations at lower levels.
As above consolidation patterns today therefore emergence of minor correction completion signals. Following retracement levels should be firstly watched now for correction completion:-
[0.618] 8,743(Crucial level)(Tested but closing above it today)
[0.500] 8,691(Crucial level)
[0.382] 8,639(Crucial level)
[0.270] 8,589
[0.236] 8,574
[0.130] 8,527
Following supports should also be firstly watched for on going going correction completion:-
1- Supports between 8736-8751
2- Supports between 8595-8615
3- Supports between 8554-8574
4- Supports between 8475-8505
It was a correction day today and it should be kept in mind that sentiment is boiling due to extremely high expectations from Budget therefore firstly correction completion confirmation is must though consolidation and base formations at lower levels. As Bullish Falling Wedge formations in last hour today therefore emergence of first consolidation signal but more consolidation is required for fresh rally after correction completion.
Although Govt approved ordinance to ease Land Acquisition Act to push reforms through "land reform ordinance 2014" and it will be tabled in Parliament tomorrow but its opposition is mounting high and final stand of Union Govt on it passing will decide market sentiments. As confusion on it therefore volatility will remain high also in the coming sessions but expected that Govt. will not compromise and Land Acquisition Bill will be passed after minor changes as well as finally market sentiment will not hamper.
Expected that fresh rally will begin immediate before or after Budget but follow up complete consolidation and correction completion confirmation is must. Let market prepare for fresh rally then will be understood from coming sessions intraday charts patterns analysis and will also be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 4 years.