Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 27 to Jan 30,2015)
Nifty-Weekly Chart (23-Jan-2015):- |
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1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(15 Years high formation)
2- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
3- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010(Wave-1 completion and Corrective Wave-2 beginning)
4- Wave-1 gained 4085.75 points.
5- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011( 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
6- Wave-3 continuation(35 Months rally with recent top formation at 8,866.40 on 23-01-2015)
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
Wave-3 is on and no signal of its completion yet therefore its continuation is expected.
Wave-1 started from 2252 and completed at 6338. Fibonacci retracements levels of this wave are as follows:-
[1.130] 6,869 (Done)
[1.236] 7,302 (Done)
[1.270] 7,441 (Done)
[1.382] 7,898 (Done)
[1.414] 8,029 (Done)
[1.500] 8,381 (Done)
[1.618] 8,863 (Done on 23-01-2015)
[1.764] 9,459
[1.886] 9,958
[2.000] 10,424
[2.236] 11,388
[2.618] 12,949
[3.140] 15,082
[3.618] 17,035
[4.236] 19,564
(Although not easy to accept or imagine also but above higher levels will be seen in coming years)
Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jan-2015):-
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1- Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and correction beginning.
2- Correction completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and correction beginning.
3- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in 28 Sessions Correction
4- 'Pennant Pattern' broken out on 15-01-2015 after RBI Repo Rates cut
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Correction in 'Pennant Pattern' started after Wave-5 completion which completed on 15-01-2015 after RBI Repo Rates cut and forcefully broken out as well as sustained above it.
Fibonacci retracements levels of 'Pennant Pattern'(7961-8626) are as follows:-
[1.130] 8,712 (Done)
[1.236] 8,782 (Done)
[1.270] 8,805 (Done)
[1.382] 8,880
[1.414] 8,901
[1.500] 8,958
[1.618] 9,036
[1.764] 9,134
[1.886] 9,215
[2.000] 9,291
[2.236] 9,447
[2.618] 9,701
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jan-2015):-
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1- Selling between 8848-8865(Immediate Resistances)
2- Buying between 8796-8815(Immediate Supports)
3- Higher bottom formations
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
5- Up moves with intraday correction
6- Whole day actual trading between 8796-8865
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly higher levels selling but lower levels buying was also seen with following consolidation patterns:-
1- Higher bottom formations
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Up moves with intraday correction
As sufficient consolidation was also seen therefore intraday charts are suggesting that rally continuation expectation are alive despite first hour higher levels selling.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
'Pennant Pattern' completed 1.270%(8805) retracement and may face some resistance at 1.382%(8880) because some selling was seen just below it last Friday. 1.618% retracement(8,863) has been completed on 23-01-2015 and Nifty slipped as well as closed below it last Friday but consolidation was also seen at lower levels therefore rally continuation hopes are still alive but follow up consolidation is firstly required.
Fibonacci numbers are as follows:-
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233,...
Wave-2 completed its correction exactly in 13 Months on 20-12-2011 at 4531.15 and impulsive Wave-3 is on for the last 35 months. As Fibonacci number of 34 is crossed therefore Wave-3 continuation hopes have emerged till 55 months means next 20 months.
All trends are up,Indian markets are most Bullish and fresh rally is on after correction completion in 'Pennant Pattern'formations. Until complete selling patterns will not develop on EOD Charts till then decisive down moves or any big correction will not be considered. As Oscillators are overbought and sentiment is heated therefore minor,intraday or 1/2 sessions correction may be seen for cooling down of sentiment but finally rally is still expected.
Next most crucial levels are follows:-
1- 1.618%(8863) of Wave-3
2- 1.382%(8880) retracement of 'Pennant Pattern'
As some selling was seen just below 8863 last Friday therefore follow consolidation is firstly required and once sustaining above 8880 will mean fresh rally towards and above those higher levels which have been updated above because that will mean Wave-3 continuation up to next 20 months also.
Expected that finally Nifty will sustain above 8880 and impulsive Wave-3 will remain continued till next 20 months.