Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 10 to Mar 14,2014)
Recent top formation at 6,537.80 on 07-03-2014 but well before on 21-10-2013 Following line was told in Minimum target of Nifty at 6724.60
Nifty is well set for rally towards minimum target at 6724.60.
Nifty closed at the top of rally with new high formation last Friday but well before its happening following 4 Weekly analysis topics with Bullish views were posted in previous 4 weeks:-
1- Rally Continuation after Very Short Term Correction(Posted on 02-03-2014)
2- Bullish Rally continuation(Posted on 23-02-2014)
3- View is Bullish(Posted on 16-02-2014)
4- Bullish Week Ahead(Posted on 09-02-2014)
(Just click on above topic and understand the reasons of our Bullish views since beginning of on going rally)
Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Mar-2014):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
All trends are up and impulsive Wave-3 continuation. As per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5" therefore Wave 3 will move up more than Wave-1.
Calculation on minimum Target of Wave-3:-
1- Wave-1 gained 1023.65 points=6142.50(top of Wave-3)-5118.85(bottom of Wave-3)
2- As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 will move up minimum 1023.65 from the bottom on Wave-3
3- Therefore minimum target of Nifty is at 6724.60= 5700.95(bottom on Wave-3)+1023.65 (Wave-1 gained)
Now impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation and new historical high formation in previous week with weekly closing near the weekly highest level. As per above mentioned Elliot Wave theory minimum target of Wave-iii of Wave-3 is as follows:-
Calculation on going minimum Target of Wave-iii of Wave-3:-
1- Wave-i of Wave-3 gained 714.30 points=6415.25(top of Wave-i of Wave-3)-5700.95(bottom of Wave-i of Wave-3)
2- As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-iii of Wave-3 will move up minimum 714.30 from the bottom of Wave-iii of Wave-3
3- Therefore minimum target of Wave-iii of Wave-3 is at 6647.60= 5933.30(bottom of Wave-iii of Wave-3)+714.30 (Wave-i of Wave-3 gained)
Expected that finally Wave-v of Wave-3 will achieve its minimum target of 6724.60 in the coming months.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Mar-2014):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Whole day up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
2- Whole day actual trading between 6413-6537
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As whole day up moves in Bearish Rising Channel and indicators are overbought therefore signals of Short Term correction possibility turned strong on 07-03-2014.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Indian markets are Bullish and rally continuation but Short term indicators are overbought and intraday selling patterns also seen in previous sessions therefore Short Term correction is due and expected that firstly correction will be seen in the beginning of next week. As Bullish markets complete its correction after very Short or Short Term correction therefore rally continuation after only such correction will be considered and follow up moves will also be firstly watched for the confirmation of its correction depth.