Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 24 to Feb 28,2014)
Nifty closed at the top of last 14 sessions last Friday and proved 100% accuracy of our following 2 weekly analysis topics:-
1- Bullish Week Ahead(Posted on 09-02-2014)
2- View is Bullish(Posted on 16-02-2014)
(Just click on above topic and understand the reasons of our Bullish views since beginning of on going rally)
Nifty-EOD Chart (21-Feb-2014):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
As per previous waves counting:-
1- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
2- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-iv of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
As per wave theory Wave-4 of any degree should not bottom below the bottom of Wave-2 of the same degree. As Nifty slipped below the bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45) and recent lowest formation at 5933.30 on 04-02-2014 therefore Waves are being recounted as follows:-
1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation
7- 200-Day EMA(today at 6010)
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Short term trend is up and finally Long term trend remained up after sustaining above its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6010) in previous week. Intermediate term trend is sideways and that will be up after sustaining above 6188.55.
Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation for new all time high and its possibilities turned high after sustaining above 200-Day EMA and saving of up trend.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 24 to Feb 21,2014):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Huge gap down(6189-6264) opening on 27-01-2014
2- 20 Sessions(27-01-2014 to 21-02-2014) actual trading between 5934-6189.
3- Firstly down moves after selling between 6130-6180
4- Multiple and strong supports development at lower levels between 5934-6065 in last 14 sessions.
5- Last 4 sessions trading between 6087-6160 with mixed trading patterns.
Conclusions from 21 Sessions intra day chart analysis
20 Sessions(27-01-2014 to 21-02-2014) actual trading between 5934-6189 with lower levels strong supports and higher levels selling and last Friday closing within last resistance range(6130-6180) of 20 sessions. Nifty traded between 6087-6160 with mixed trading patterns and traded within mentioned resistance range also. As more consolidation seen in last 4 sessions between 6087-6160 therefore emergence of break out possibility of last 20 sessions range after follow up consolidation between mentioned resistance range.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Rally is on and strong up moves continuation possibility is also very much alive but follow up consolidation is firstly required because Nifty closed within next resistance range after lower levels very good consolidation in last 3 weeks.
Next resistances are between 6130-6180 and once valid break out above 6180 will mean fast and strong rally toward next resistances:-
6265-6292
6320-6358
Expected that finally up moves toward 6265 will be seen after follow up consolidation in next week.