Sideways Week ahead in search of Next Big Trend
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 06 to Jan 10,2014)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jan-2014):-
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1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 stopped at 6358.30 on 02-01-2014.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Long and Intermediate term Trends are up,Short term is down and Impulsive Wave-3 is on towards new highs above 6415. At present Wave-v of Wave-3 is on and its correction begun after sharp fall on 02-01-2014. As up moves of mentioned wave were slow and forceful down moves with 9 Sessions trading range(6260-6324) broken down also on 02-01-2014 therefore emergence of trend reversal risk,let its confirmation come waves recounting will be considered.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Dec 09 to Jan 03,2014):-
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1- All time high formation at 6415 on 09-12-2013
2- Selling between 6360-6387
3- Selling between 6330-6355
4- Strong support range 6130-6180
5- 9 Sessions sideways trading between 6260-6324.
6- Selling between 6328-6356
7- Support between 6172-6186
8- 19 Sessions actual trading between 6130-6415
Conclusions from 19 Sessions intra day chart analysis
19 Sessions actual trading between 6130-6415 with lower levels good supports and higher levels selling also therefore firstly Nifty has to prepare for one sided decisive moves. 9 Sessions sideways trading between 6260-6324 in last 19 sessions and this range was forcefully broken down on 02-01-2014. Strong support range 6130-6180 and follow up supports and consolidation seen within and above this range on 03-01-2014 therefore Nifty will not easily sustain below 6130.
Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next trend between 6130-6260(lowest of 9 Sessions sideways trading range). As supports above 6172 last Friday therefore valid break out of 6172-6260 will give first indication of next trend and confirmation of big moves will be sustaining beyond 6130-6415(19 Sessions trading range).
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Jan-2014):-
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1- Down moves with Bullish Falling Channel.
2- Support between 6172-6186.
3- Up moves with consolidation pattern formations.
4- Whole day actual trading between 6172-6221.
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly down moves with Bullish Falling Channel and after that lower levels supports as well as up moves with consolidation pattern formations therefore strong signals of strength on 03-01-2014 and complete selling is required for sustaining below the day's lowest(6172). If finally Nifty sustains above 6172 in the coming week then 2nd January started correction completion will be considered.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Following levels should be watched in the coming weeks for next big trends:-
1- Resistance between 6330-6355
2- Resistance between 6360-6387
3- Support between 6172-6186
4- Support between 6130-6180
5- Intermediate Term Trend will be down below 6130
6- Long Term Trend will be down below 200-Day EMA(today at 5952)
Nifty closed at 6211.15 last Friday,strong supports below it and equally strong resistances above this range also therefore complete preparations are required for the formation of next big trend and sustaining beyond 19 Sessions range(6130-6415) should be firstly watched in the coming weeks for confirmations.
Sideways week within 6130-6415 ahead in search of next big trend.