High possibility of slipping and sustaining below 6130
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 13 to Jan 17,2014)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jan-2014):- |
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1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Correction beginning after Wave-v of Wave-3 terminating at 6358.30 on 02-01-2014.
9- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 6139,60 on 10-01-2014.
10- Last 5 sessions sideways trading between 6140-6240.
11- 200-Day EMA(today at 5963).
12- 29 Sessions actual trading between 6130-6415
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Correction beginning after Wave-v of Wave-3 terminating at 6358.30 on 02-01-2014 and last 5 sessions sideways trading between 6140-6240,sustaining beyond this range will decide next immediate moves therefore should be firstly watched in the coming week.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 06 to Jan 10,2014):-
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1- Higher levels good selling in last 5 sessions.
2- Lower levels minor supports in last 5 sessions.
3- 5 Sessions actual trading between 6139-6239
Conclusions from 5 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although lower levels minor supports but higher levels good selling in last 5 sessions therefore expected that finally Nifty will slip below 5 sessions lowest(6139).
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Jan-2014):-
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1- Support between 6140-6155
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
3- Good selling between 6207-6239
4- Sharp down after 3 hours selling.
5- Whole day actual trading between 6140-6239
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Highly volatile day after good quarterly results INFY with higher levels good selling and up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore finally Nifty will slip below the lowest(6139) of the day.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Long and Intermediate Term Trends are up and Short Term trend turned down after steep fall from 6358.30 on 02-01-2014. Following levels will decide next trends:-
1- Intermediate Term Trend will be down after sustaining below 6130
2- Long Term Trend will be down after sustaining below 200-Day EMA(today at 5963)
9 Sessions sideways trading range(6260-6324) broken down after steep fall from 6358.30 on 02-01-2014 and Nifty sustained below it in previous week therefore its broken down confirmation.
Wave-v of Wave-3 has not shown shown force and moved up slowly as well as terminated after lower bottom formation at 6358.30 therefor emergence of its failure risk. As good selling in last 5 sessions therefore expected that finally Nifty will slip below 5 sessions lowest(6139) and high possibility of sustaining below 6130 as well as Intermediate Term Trend turning down risk. Mostly Intermediate Term Trend remains continued from 3 weeks to 3 months therefore testing of 200-Day EMA(today at 5963) can not be ruled out in this trend.
Should be kept in mind that high possibility of slipping and sustaining below 6130 in next week.