Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 06 to May 10,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-May-2013):-
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1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion)
2- Wave 1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave 2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave 3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave 4(5477.20 on 10-04-2013)
6- Wave 5 continuation with top formation at 6019.45 on 02-May-2013.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
All trends are up after 542 points strong rally in 14 sessions but Short Term correction is due also because indicators are overbought.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 02 and May 3,2013):-
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1- Good Selling between 5993-6017 on 02-05-2013
2- Selling between 5990-5999 on 03-05-2013
3- Minor Supports at lower levels between 5933-5957 on 03-05-2013
4- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5927-6017
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Good selling at higher levels in both previous sessions and minor supports can not be ruled out at lower levels on 03-05-2013 because markets did not showed as such down moves after most disappointing RBI Credit policy as were required. As higher levels selling with lower levels supports also in last 2 sessions therefore mixed formations in both previous sessions.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Short Term correction is due and its first indication after good higher levels Selling on 02-05-2013. As minor Supports also seen at lower levels on 03-05-2013 therefore valid break out of last 2 Sessions actual trading between range(5927-6017) will be next decisive moves confirmation.
Expected that Nifty will firstly hover around previous 2 Sessions actual trading range(5927-6017) and will prepare for next trend after 14 sessions strong rally. As Bull markets does not correct deep and completes its correction between range bound moves therefore deeper correction will not be considered at this moment because only one day(02-05-2013) good selling.
Correction continuation and its length will be decided according to follow up moves in the coming couple of sessions. If follow up selling develops then following retracement levels will be firstly watched for correction completion:-
38.2%- 5811
50.0%- 5748
61.8%- 5684
Impulsive Wave 5 continuation after and now its corrective Sub Wave ii is being considered after good selling on 02-05-2013 and beginning of down moves on 03-05-2013. Expected that Wave 5 will remain continued after on going correction completion and follow up consolidations. Let it happen then impulsive Sub Wave iii of Wave 5 will begin to form new highs above 6111 and its confirmation will be after sustaining above 6019.