Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 01 to Apr 05,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Mar-2013):- |
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1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion)
2- Wave 1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave 2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave i(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
5- Wave ii(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
6- Wave iii(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
7- Wave iv(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
8- Wave v of Wave 3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
9- Wave A(5663.60 on 04-03-2012)
10- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
11- Wave C bottom formation at 5604.85 on 28-03-2012
12- Wave 4 correction continuation
13- 200 Day EMA at 5671 on 28-03-2012
14- 200 Day DMA at 5627 on 28-03-2012
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Mar-2013):-
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1- More than 5 hours consolidation between 5605-5640
2- Strong rally in last 45 minutes
3- Closing near higher levels of the day
4- Whole day actual trading between 5605-5690
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
As Per Elliot Wave Theory:-
The bottom of Wave-4 should not dip below the top of Wave 1,at least on a closing basis.
Top of Wave 1 is at 5629.95 and Nifty slipped below it in last 3 sessions but not closed below it and 5 sessions traded between Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA and EMA as well. As not closing below 5629.95 and rally also above both Long Term Trends deciders last Friday therefore strong indication of on going Waves structure survival. It means that beginning of Wave 5 to cross the top of rally((6111.80) and also the possibility new all time high formation above 6357.10.
Strong rally after more than 5 hours consolidation between 5605-5640 last Friday means good supports at lower levels and minimum Pull Back Rally will be seen in Short term. As political uncertainty therefore volatility can not be ruled out but until Nifty will not sustain below 5605 or close below 5629.95 till then next decisive down move will not be considered. Although General Elections may also be declared and may be big negative news flow also in the coming weeks,months and years but finally markets moves on technicals and until above mentioned Waves structure survives till then rally possibility is very much alive above 6111.80/6357.10.
Expected that up moves will remain continued in the coming sessions but higher levels consolidations is also required because strong multiple resistances upto 6111.80.