Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 11 to Mar 15,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Mar-2013):- |
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1- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
2- Sub Wave-5(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
3- 'ABC' correction after Sub Wave-5 completion.
4- 61 Sessions actual trading between 5823-6111 with Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations and its Neckline(5823) broken down on 26-02-2013
5- Last 2 sessions closing between 61 Sessions trading range after 7 sessions trading below it.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Pull Back rally continuation after 'ABC' correction completion and reentering into 61 Sessions trading range but multiple resistances upto 6111 therefore follow up consolidation is required in the coming week for rally above 6111. Next resistance range is between 5940-5970,Nifty traded between this range on 08-03-2013 and firstly technical positions of intraday charts wil be understood for next moves in the beginning of next week.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Mar-2013):-
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1- First 4 hours trading between 5890-5914 with selling patterns between 5902-5914.
2- Up moves beginning at 01:15 PM and 4 hours trading range broken out.
3- Higher levels consolidation patterns between 5917-5935.
4- Last 50 minutes trading with mixed patterns between 5941-5952.
5- Whole day actual trading between 5890-5952.
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
First 4 hours trading between 5890-5914 with selling patterns between 5902-5914 but Up moves beginning at 01:15 PM and 4 hours trading range broken out despite selling because following sharp up moves beginning in global markets:-
1- At 01:15 PM- Dow Futures was trading at 14348 and moved up sharply to 14388 within 30 minutes.
2- At 01:15 PM- Dax Futures was trading at 7969 and moved up sharply to 7999 within 30 minutes.
3- At 12:25 PM- FTSE 100 Futures was trading at 6445 and moved up sharply to 6470 within 85 minutes.
4- At 12:25 PM- CAC 40 Futures was trading at 3803 and moved up sharply to 3825 within 85 minutes.
Nifty was trading at 5906 at 01:15 PM and moved up sharply to 5929 within 30 minutes exactly in lines with US and European markets. Although some intraday consolidation patterns and mixed patterns were seen between 5917-5952 in last more than 2 hours but up moves were heated sentiment generated therefore require more confirmations.
Although Nifty moved up after 01:15 PM but broad based CNX MIDCAP and CNX SMALLCAP did not showed such up moves and remained range bound as well as showed selling patterns formations despite closing positive near higher levels of the day.
CNX MIDCAP-Intra Day Chart (08-Mar-2013):-
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Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Long Term and Short term trends are up and Intermediate term trend is down that will be up above 5970 after crossing of next resistance(5940-5970). Pull Back rally continuation between 61 Sessions trading range(5823-6111) and multiple resistances at higher levels between this range therefore market require complete continuous consolidations for rally continuation above 6111.
Although strong rally on 08-03-2013 but without intraday charts complete consolidations and on the back of strong Global cues therefore market is not prepared for next sustained up moves. As Nifty traded between and below next resistance(5940-5970) with intraday charts selling patterns formations also therefore Nifty is not prepared for decisive up moves above 5970.
Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5890-5970 in the coming sessions and will prepared for next moves. Now trading range market and not trending,previous week up moves will be understood only Pull Back Rally and following ranges break out will decide next trend:-
1- 5890-5970(First indication)
2- 5823-6111(61 sessions range break out)
3- 5664-6111(Next trend confirmation)