Long Term Trend is at stake
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(26-03-2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Mar-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave 2 completion and Wave 3 beginning(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Wave i(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Wave ii(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Wave iii(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Wave iv(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Wave v(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
7- Wave 3 completion and Wave 4(ABC correction) beginning
8- Wave A(5663.60 on 04-03-2012)
9- Wave A retraced 448.20 points.
10- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
11- Wave B gained 307.60 points
12- Wave C bottom formation at 5624.40 on 25-03-2012
13- Wave C has retraced 346.80 points yet.
13- Corrective Wave C of Wave 4 continuation.
14- 200 Day EMA at 5672
15- 200 Day DMA at 5621
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
ABC Waves of Wave 4 continuation and Wave A retraced 448.20 points therefore equal 100% retracement of Wave c can not be ruled out. Wave C correction continuation is expected next target is at:-
5971.20(Wave B)-448.20(Wave A lost)=5523.00
Next strong support is at 5548.35 which is near 5523.00 therefore these 2 levels will be watched in the coming sessions for on going Wave 4 correction completion. It should be kept in mind that Nifty has closed 3 consecutive days below 200 Day EMA(5672) therefore high risk on Long Term Trend turning down and Indian markets moving into Bear Grip. As Nifty closed between 200 Day DMA(5621) and EMA(5672) in last 3 sessions therefore sustaining beyond 5621 should also be watched because Long Term Trend is at stake.
As Wave 4 correction after Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations therefore until such big reversal Bullish pattern will not form till then correction will not complete and will remain continued and following retracement levels of wave 3(4770-6111) should be kept in mind:-
13.0%- 5936(Corrected)
23.6%- 5794(Corrected)
27.0%- 5748(Corrected)
38.2%- 5598(Most crucial Levels)
50.0%- 5440(Most crucial Levels)
61.8%- 5282(Most crucial Levels)
70.7%- 5162
76.4%- 5086
78.6%- 5056
88.6%- 4922
Pre-open Outlook(26-03-2013)
Sentiment is depressed today morning because some Asian markets are in Red after negative closing of US markets yesterday therefore initial weakness is possible but some recovery from lower levels and intraday volatility can not be ruled out today and until Nifty will not sustain above 5702 till then any rally will not be considered.