Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 18 to Mar 22,2013)
Waves Structure of Rally after 2008 correction completion
Nifty-Weekly Chart (15-Mar-2013):- |
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1- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
2- Impulsive Wave-1 Completion(3240.55 on 05-11-2008)
3- Corrective Wave-2 Completion(2539.45 on 06-03-2009)
4- Impulsive Wave-3 Completion(5399.65 on 07-04-2010)
5- Corrective Wave-4 Completion(4786.45 on 28-05-2010)
6- Impulsive Wave-5 Completion(6338.50 on 05-11-2010)
7- Correction beginning after Wave 1 rally completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.
8- Impulsive Wave-1 Completion(5690.35 on 26-11-2010)
9- Corrective Wave-2 Completion(6181.05 on 04-01-2011)
10- Impulsive Wave-3 Completion(4720.00 on 26-08-2011)
11- Corrective Wave-4 Completion(5399.70 on 28-10-2011)
12- Impulsive Wave-5 Completion(4531.15 on 20-12-2011)
13- Rally beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
14- Impulsive Wave-1 Completion(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
15- Corrective Wave-2 Completion(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
16- Impulsive Wave-3 Completion(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
17- Corrective Wave-4 Completion(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
18- Impulsive Wave-5 Completion(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
19- Correction beginning after Wave 3 completion at 6111.80 on 29-01-2013.
20- Bottom formation of on going correction at 5663.60 on 04-03-2013 and Pull back rally beginning.
21- Top formation of on going Pull back rally at 5971.20 on 11-03-2013
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
As correction of Wave 3 started after 5th wave completion therefore Nifty will correct all 1580.55 of Wave 3 points which gained within whole rally between 4531.15 and 6111.80. Now technical patterns formations and Waves Structure of Wave 3 has to be understood.
Waves Structure of Wave 3
Nifty-EOD Chart (15-Mar-2013):- |
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1- Rally beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Wave-5(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
7- Wave-5 completion after 61 Sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111 with Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations and its Neckline(5823) broken down on 26-02-2013.
7- Bottom formation of on going correction at 5663.60 on 04-03-2013 and Pull back rally beginning.
8- Top formation of on going Pull back rally at 5971.20 on 11-03-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
As Wave-3 correction begun after Wave-5 as well as Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations and its Neckline(5823) has also broken down therefore deeper correction was seen. Pull back rally beginning on 04-03-2013 and its completion at 5971.20 on 11-03-2013 as well as fresh down moves started in previous week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Correction continuation and for its completion following Fibonacci Retracement Levels should be firstly watched:-
13.0%- 5905 (Corrected)
23.6%- 5738 (Corrected)
27.0%- 5684 (Corrected)
38.2%- 5507 (Most crucial Levels)
50.0%- 5321 (Most crucial Levels)
61.8%- 5134 (Most crucial Levels)
70.7%- 4993
76.4%- 4903
78.6%- 4869
88.6%- 4711
Next supports of on going rally are as follows:-
1- 5793
2- 5664
3- 5548
Pull Back rally could not sustain above next strong resistances(5940-5970) and completed after top formation at 5971.20 on 11-03-2013. As good intraday selling seen at higher levels therefore We clearly told for down moves and told following lines in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(13-03-2013):-
possibility of Pull Back rally termination as well as down moves in the coming sessions.
We repeated above conclusions in following topic again in Correction Continuation and told following lines:-
1- possibility of Pull Back rally termination as well as down moves in the coming sessions.
2- despite more down moves possibility.
Expected that previous week begun correction will remain continued in coming week and above mentioned supports as well as Fibonacci Retracement Levels should be watched for the possibility of correction completion. As good selling seen at higher levels in previous weeks therefore completion consolidation is required for correction completion and let it happen then correction completion will be considered.