Nifty Target at 8616.90
Wishing You and yours family Bright, Prosperous, Successful, Healthy & Happy New Year 2013
Wishing You and yours family Bright, Prosperous, Successful, Healthy & Happy New Year 2013
Nifty-Weekly Chart (04-Jan-2013):-
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1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
2- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
3- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010(Wave-1 completion and Corrective Wave-2 begining)
4- Wave-1 gained 4085.75 points.
5- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Impulsive Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion)
6- Impulsive Wave-3 is on.
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
Impulsive Wave-3 started after Wave-2 correction completion on 20-12-2011 therefore whole 2012 was Bullish year. As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5 therefore Wave-3 will gain minimum 4085.75 points. Wave-3 started from 4531.15 and according to Elliot Wave theory its minimum target will be:-
4531.15+4085.75=8616.90
Impulsive Wave-3 is on and its Waves structure is as follows:-
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1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1 completion(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2 completion(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3 of Wave-3 is on
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Indian markets are completely Bullish and both impulsive Waves-3 are in progress towards 8616.90. Although tough to accept above mentioned technical target of Nifty but Indian economy is growing and Stock Markets always reflect economic growth. Until Indian markets are Bullish till then minimum target of Nifty is always alive at 8616.90. Following rally of Brazil and Japan are showing the power of Bull Markets:-
1- Bovespa(Brazil Index) was at 375 in Jan 1994 and reached 71924 in Jan 2011.
2- Nikkei 225(Japan Index) was less than 10,000 in 1985 and its reached near 40,000 in 1990.
This fact should also be kept in mind that Nikkei 225 moved below 7,000 in 2008 and unimaginable lower levels are also possible in Bear Phase therefore strict stop loss must be maintained by all investors and traders.
Now we shifts towards micro analysis and understand internal waves structures of Wave-3 of Wave-3:-
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1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1)
3- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points
4- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2)
5- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Sub Wave-3)
6- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points
7- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4)
8- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Impulsive Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after Sub Wave-4 correction completion with Bullish Flag formation therefore strong up moves will be seen. As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points as per theory Sub Wave-5 will gain less than 782.95 point from the bottom of Wave-4(5548.35) therefore Sub Wave-5 maximum target will be less than 6331.30(5548.35+782.95). Previous tops above 6000 are as follows:-
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008.
2- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
From longer to shorter all trends are Bullish and Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on. Expected that Sub Wave-5 will not gain less than 61.8%(6031) of Sub Wave-3 gains and Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331. Usually Wave-5 of any degree moves faster therefore rally will be forceful. As on going Sub Wave-5 rally possible maximum target is near 6331 therefore Triple Top formation may be seen and after the completion of Sub Wave-5 complete correction of impulsive Wave-3 will be seen which started from 4770.35 but Wave-3 which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2012 will remain continued because it has to move up minimum 4085.75 points and its target is at 8616.90.
It seems that now Wave-1 of Wave-3(started from 4531.15) is continued and 2 more impulsive Waves(Wave-3 and Wave-5) will be seen to test 8616.90. These targets are for Long term investors and Financial institutions. Markets takes its own time and Stock Rally force always depends on Economic growth and pace of Corporate earnings also.
As all things are on track therefore minimum 8616.90 will be seen in the coming years.