Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Dec 10 to Dec 14,2012)
Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Dec-2012):- |
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1- 6335.90 on 08-11-2010(Long term correction begun).
2- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion).
3- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012).
4- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012).
5- Wave-3 is on
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Rally begun after 13 Months Long Term correction completion and impulsive Wave-3 is on.
Waves Structure of Wave-3
Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Dec-2012):- |
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1- Wave-2 completion(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Sub Wave-4 corrected sideways between 5548.35-5815.35 with Bullish Flag formation and this range broken out on 29-11-2012. Break out validity got confirmation in previous week and with this Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 also got its continuation confirmation.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Dec-2012):-
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1- Selling between 5930-5946
2- Follow up selling between 5910-5925
3- Whole day actual trading between 5890-5946
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Mayawati announcement to support Congress in Rajya Sabha created enthusiasm but Union Government postponed key Economic decisions in Cabinet meeting 06-12-2012 therefore Big Gap up opening was not seen last Friday and intraday charts are showing good selling patterns.
As good selling last Friday therefore firstly down moves will be seen in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after Sub Wave-4 correction completion with Bullish Flag formation therefore strong up moves will be seen. As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Wave-3 gained 782.95 points as per theory Sub Wave-5 will gain less than 782.95 point from the bottom of Wave-4(5548.35) therefore Sub Wave-5 maximum target will be less than 6331.30(5548.35+782.95). Previous tops above 6000 are as follows:-
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008.
2- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.
As on going Sub Wave-5 rally possibile maximum target is near 6331 therefore Tripple Top formation may be seen. Expected that Sub Wave-5 will not gain less than 61.8% of Sub Wave-3 gains and Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331. Usually Wave-5 of any degree moves faster therefore rally will be forceful.
Good intraday selling seen on 06-12-2012 and firstly Indian markets will slip in the beginning of coming week therefore next support range(5829-5860) should be firstly watched. Expected that Nifty will consolidate between 5829-5946 and after that next strong rally will be seen above 5949.