Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 12 to Nov 16,2012)
Wishing you all very happy and prosperous Diwali
Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Nov-2012):-
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1- 6335.90 on 08-11-2010(Long term correction begun)
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1 completion(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2 completion(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3 completion(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- 33 Sessions sideways correction between 5583-5815.
6- 3 Resistances above 5815
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
On going rally begun on 08-11-2010 from 4531.15 after 13 months long term correction completion. Completion of Wave-3 at 5815.35 on 05-10-2012 and its correction is on through 33 Sessions sideways moves between 5583-5815.
Nifty-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart(09-Nov-2012):-
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8 Day EMA is at- 5704
21 Day EMA is at- 5682
55 Day EMA is at- 5583
200 Day EMA is at- 5357
Indicators Analysis
1- Bollinger Band- Narrow range moves between 5608-5761 and previous week moves near upper band.
2- Slow Stochastic- Signalling short term down moves after %K moving below %D in overbought zone.
3- ADX Indicator- ADX is at 31.93 and indication of beginning of big trend formation.
4- MACD- Both lines are kissing in positive zone and indicating indecision between bulls and bears.
5- ROC and RSI- are hovering around equilibrium line and in positive zone therefore not showing any trend.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
MACD,ROC and RSI are at equilibrium and well prepared for any side clear break out and ADX Indicator is above 25 therefore indicating the beginning of next big trend. Slow Stochastic has given short term downward signal through downward cross over in overbought zone therefore down moves are possible.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct10 to Nov 09,2012):-
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1- Most time trading between 5639-5720 in last 20 sessions.
2- False break down after RBI Credit policy on 30-10-2012.
3- False break out after Obama victory on 07-11-2012.
4- Sideways trading between 5583-5777 in last 20 sessions.
5- Sideways trading between 5583-5815 in last 33 sessions.
Conclusions from 20 Sessions intra day chart analysis
33 Sessions sideways market and let its break out get confirmation for next trend formation. Strong break out signal will be cross over of 20 sessions range and final confirmation will be sustaining beyond 33 sessions range.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Long Term Trend is up and intermediate term trend is sideways for the last 33 sessions between 5583-5815 and finally sustaining beyond this range will blast Indian markets towards its break out direction.
Momentum indicators are also very well prepared for any side clear break out through immediate cross overs but Nifty is almost in the middle of previous 33 sessions range therefore following resistances and supports should be firstly watched:-
1- Higher levels strong resistances are between 5700-5720/5733/5777/5815.
2- supports are between 5583-5615.
Next more than 10% strong moves confirmation range is 5583-5815 and its break out should be firstly watched in the coming weeks but false break out/down seen after positive and negative news flow in previous weeks therefore beware of such false signals and get breaking out/down technical confirmation through following 2 filters after cross over of 33 sessions range:-
1- 3 Days sustaining beyond the previous trading range.
2- Minimum 3% up/down moves from the high/low of the previous trading range.
Strong and blasting final conclusive big moves beyond 5583-5815 will be as follows:-
1- Below 5583 will mean deeper Wave-4 correction possibility because Wave-3 correction started after its 5 Sub-Waves completion and Wave-4 may correct 1045 up moves of Wave-3.
2- Above 5815 may mean eruption of impulsive Wave-5 strong rally after Wave-4 correction completion within sideways moves but strong 3 resistance ranges above 5815 also therefore up moves may be slow.