Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 13 to Feb 17,2012)
6 Confirmations of Long Term Trend turning up
Technical Analysis & Research
Nifty-EOD Chart(10-Feb-2012):- |
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6 Confirmations of Long Term Trend turning up
Long Term Trend turning up following 6 confirmations
1- 8 Sessions closing above trend Reversal 200-Day SMA (today is at 5178)
2- 9 Sessions closing above trend Reversal 200-Day EMA (today is at 5147)
3- 7 Sessions closing above trend Reversal 123 Sessions sideways market between 4720-5229.
4- 123 Sessions sideways market break out confirmation through more than 3 sessions sustaining above 5229.
5- 123 Sessions sideways market break out confirmation through more than 3% upward trading and closing near about 5386{5229+157(3% of 5229)}
6- Falling trend line break out.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Although corrections will be seen but Long Term Trend turning up 6 confirmations and it means high possibility of that rally continuation which started on 20-12-2011 from 4532.
Daily Indicators suggesting Short Term Correction
Nifty-Daily Indicators and Averages Chart(10-Feb-2012):-
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Conclusions
1- Averages(EMA-8,21,55,200)- Averages are as follows:
8 Day EMA is at- 5327
21 Day EMA is at- 5176
55 Day EMA is at- 5030
200 Day EMA is at- 5147
2- Bollinger Band- is continuously moving along with Upper Band for the last 20 sessions therefore showing maturity of up trend.
3- MACD- Rising both lines are above 120 and in overbought zone.
4- ADX is above 65 and near its peaking level.
5- ROC- Showing divergence just below overbought zone.
5- RSI- Showing divergence in overbought zone.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
On going upmove is so strong that all the averages are rising in less than 2 months rally but all the indicators are overbought and showing clear divergence therefore short term correction is very much due now.
5325-5382 Will decide Deeper or Sideways Correction
Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 13-02-2012
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(10-Feb-2012):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 5410-5427
2- Mixed Patterns between 5342-5382 in last more than 3 hours
3- Whole day trading between 5342-5427
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly selling between 5410-5427 was seen after heated sentiment due to last hour sharp surge one day before. Although Nifty slipped to 5341.05 but when Nifty was trading at 5409 then following lines were told in Mid-session Outlook at 11:29:00 AM on 10-02-2012
"Although Nifty is trading above 5400 since opening today but intraday patterns are signalling selling patterns also at today higher levels"
Last 3 hours mixed intraday patterns were seen 5342-5382 on 10-02-2012 and more than 5 hours mixed intraday patterns were seen in almost same range within 5325-5380 on 09-02-2012 therefore range of 5325-5382 has become most crucial and will give following moves confirmations:-
1- Correction completion within 5 days sideways moves(5323-5427) after fresh consolidation between 5325-5382.
2- Depper correction after follow up selling between or near about 5325-5382 on next Monday and then breaking down of 5 days range(5323-5427).
Although deeper correction possibilities turned higher after higher levels selling and lower levels mixed patterns but next big decisive moves first strong signal will arrive from sustaining beyond 5325-5382 on 13-02-2012 and should be firstly watched for confirmations.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
6 Confirmations of Long Term Trend turning up after 894 Nifty Points rally but Sentiment is boiling and Indicators are overbought as well as showing divergences also therefore short term correction is very much due now.
Nifty was completely sideways between 5323-5427 in the previous week and mixed intraday trading patterns within this range. Suustaining below 5323 will mean deeper correction and its possibilities have turned higher also after higher levels selling in previous week. Sustaining below 5323 will mean high possibility of next supports testing near 5250/5100
Many times Bull markets corrects at higher levels within sideways moves and it has been seen in previous week all 5 sessions trading therefore firstly sustaining beyond previous week range(5323-5427) should be watched. Follow up consolidation in next week will mean rally continuation after sustaining above 5427 and sustaining below 5323 will mean firstly deeper correcton and latern on rally after its completions.