Mid-Session-2(31-12-2010)

Nifty is trading above 6100 since morning today and also crossed resistance of 6120. Rally is very much on to test last tesistance of rally(6250-6320). Risky players may may ride on running horse and safe players may wait slowing down or stopping of horse(minor intraday cotrrection) for riding.

Mid-Session(31-12-2010)

Market heated immediately after opening today and will be safer to buy after some intraday correction

Pre-Open Market Outlook(31-12-2010)

Following lines were told yesterday:-

"6100 expected within 2/3 sessions"

Nifty traded most of the time within 6070-6085 and tested 6100 in last half hour yesterday as well as closed above 6100 but Nifty Jan Fut did not responded this last half hour sharp surge. Although Nifty Jan Fut moved up in last hour but completely under performed Nifty spot yesterday. Mentioned surge was seen in resistance range(6080-6100) and Nifty Jan Fut intraday charts of yesterday are indicating selling signals also therefore more consolidation required within 6080-6120 for fresh up moves. As most of the pivotal stocks intraday charts of yesterday are suggesting buying formations therefore more up moves are expected after some more consolidation today.

As more consolidation is fresh rally demand therefore it will be seen first within 6080-6120 today and fresh rally above 6100 expected in next Session,Week,Month & Year.

Trading Levels for 31-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 31-12-10

R3 6162
R2 6134
R1 6118
AVG 6090
S1 6074
S2 6046
S3 6030  

Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 31-12-10

R3 6180
R2 6160
R1 6145
AVG 6125
S1 6110
S2 6090
S3 6075
 
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 31-12-10

R3 11842
R2 11790
R1 11735
AVG 11683
S1 11628
S2 11576
S3 11521

Mid-Session Outlook(30-12-2010)

Market slipped from higher levels on expected therefore following lines were told in Pre-Open Outlook:-

1- Voltality and little profit booking at higher levels may be seen

2- Fresh long positions should be created after completion of intraday corrections

Sentiment was heated today morning therefore cooling down was consolidation requirement and it is being happened. Intraday charts not showing distribution formation despite Nifty intraday trading low formation. Fresh consolidation expected and its signals are being seen also. As market has to prepare to cross next resistance(6080-6120) therefore trading near its lower band and fresh up moves are expected after 1/2 sessions fresh consolidations.

Rally after Correction Completion

Pre-Open Market Outlook(30-12-2010)

Intermediate term correction which begun from Deepawali Muhurrat session finished yesterday after 27 days range bound moves between 5690-6069. Although Nifty could not closed above range but last 2 sessions intraday consolidations and up moves patterns are suggesting that Nifty will sustain finally above 6069 and fresh rally will be seen now to test follwing resistances:-

1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320(strong resistance)

As 27 sessions range bound move is being broken out therefore decisive rally and above mentioned 3rd resistance testing possibility can not be ruled out.

All trends are up now and 5th impulsive sub wave of wave 3 is confirmed yesterday and its targets are much above all time high but its calculations will be disclosed after crossing crucial resistances. Mentioned Waves structutes of Wave 3 is clearly shown in following EOD chart:-

1- Waves structutes of Wave 3 Chart:-

 

(Just click on chart for enlarged view)

Sentiment will be heated today morning and Nifty has to cross immediate resistance range(6080-6120) for any fresh rally therefore consolidation requires within mentioned range. Voltality and little profit booking at higher levels may be seen but finally fresh rally above 6100 expected within 2/3 sessions. Fresh long positions should be created after completion of intraday corrections.

Today Green/Red/flat closing can not be guaranteed but fresh rally above 6100 expected within 2/3 sessions.

Trading Levels for 30-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 30-12-10

R3 6149
R2 6108
R1 6084
AVG 6043
S1 6019
S2 5978
S3 5954

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 30-12-10

R3 6149
R2 6111
R1 6090
AVG 6052
S1 6031
S2 5993
S3 5972

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 30-12-10

R3 11876
R2 11758
R1 11691
AVG 11573
S1 11506
S2 11388
S3 11321

Mid-Session Outlook-2(29-12-2010)

Following lines were told for today market:-

"As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for upmoves and sustaining above 6040 will be confirmation of next rally. Expected that rally will begin today and nifty will cross as well as sustain above 6040 now. Green closing after positive opening expected today"

Nifty is trading above 6040 with intraday consolidation patterns today therefore it is confirming correction completion within 27 sessions range bound moves and fresh rally as well.

Mid-Session Outlook(29-12-2010)

As Indian markets are trading within resistance ranges therefore under performing Asian markets. Intraday patterns are suggesting consolidations at this moment and expected that resistances will be cleared and fresh upmoves will be seen now after some more buying today and tomorrow.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 28-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(BOUGHT ON 28-12-2010)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6033(WE MAY BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER NOW)

Rally above 6000 Expected

Pre-Open Market Outlook(29-12-2010)

Nifty is hovering around 5980-6040 for the last 6 sessions and it has been seen that Nifty traded more than 200 points after breaking out of this range 6 times previously therefore minimum such moves should be expected after its break out.  Meaning on mentioned range break out is as follows:-

1- Breaking down and sustaining below 5980 will mean continuation of correction to test those lower support and fibonacci retracement levels which has already been posted in last 3 sessions outlooks.

2-Breaking out and firstly sustaining above 6040 and then sustaining above will mean correction completion confirmation to test those resistances which have already been posted in last 3 sessions outlooks.

1-6 Times Trend Decider Range- 5980-6040 chart:-

                         (Just click on chart for enlarged view)

Intraday charts showed consolidation patterns immediately after opening yesterday therefore following lines were told after 1st hour yesterday in Mid-session outlook:-

"intraday charts of first hour showed consolidation patterns. Up moves will be considered after sustaining above 6000 today"

Although Nifty could not sustain above 6000 yesterday but intraday charts of yesterday are suggesting whole day consolidation and expected that Nifty will cross and sustain above 6000 today. As good consolidation therefore yesterday intraday range(5988-6005) will proove strong support in the coming sessions.

1- Intaday Buying Patterns on 28-12-2010 chart:-

                              (Just click on chart for enlarged view)

Following technical indicators are also signalling upmoves:-

1- All the short term EMA(8,21,55,200) are above longer term EMA.
2- MACD line is above Average line and both are rising.
3- ROC & RSI- Both are in positive zone.
4- Short term indicators have cooled down in overbought zone.

As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for upmoves and sustaining above 6040 will be confirmation of next rally. Expected that rally will begin today and nifty will cross as well as sustain above 6040 now. Green closing after positive opening expected today.

Trading Levels for 29-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 29-12-10

R3 6039
R2 6025
R1 6010
AVG 5996
S1 5981 
S2 5967
S3 5952 

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 29-12-10

R3 6058
R2 6042 
R1 6028 
AVG 6012
S1 5998
S2 5982
S3 5968

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 29-12-10

R3 11586 
R2 11548 
R1 11506
AVG 11468
S1 11426
S2 11388
S3 11346

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 28-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5987-TGT-6074-CMP-6014

NIFTY(DEC CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-5987-TGT-6074 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6014

Mid-Session Outlook(28-12-2010)

Indian markets out performing global markets today morning and intraday charts of first hour showed consolidation patterns. Up moves will be considered after sustaining above 6000 today.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(28-12-2010)

Indian markets moved up last Friday despite 3 previous sessions selling patterns( 5958-6024) on following bullish news:-

"Finance ministry fresh missive to the labour ministry for investment a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund in stock markets"

As mentioned up move was news based after ignoring selling formations therefore following lines were told for yesterday:-

"As last Friday up move was on the back of positive news therefore sustaining above the top(6069) of last 25 sessions is must for confirmation of break out"

As doubt was shown and same was seen yesterday. Indian markets slipped and closed within last week 3 selling sessions range at 5998 and last 26 sessions range bound move of 5690-6069 is still maintained. Selling patterns within 6020-6045 yesterday and selling was already seen in the last week therefore next trend confirmation first range is 5940-6045. Until fresh consolidation will not happen till then firstly 6045 and then 6069 will not cross to confirm decisive up trend. As selling patterns exists therefore down moves will be faster and sustaining above the top(6069) of last 26 sessions is must for confirmation of break out and up move"

Long term and short term trends are up and intermediate term is sideways for the last 26 sessions. As selling therefore firstly down move within last 5 sessions range(5940-60450) expected and also whole day trading within this range will be seen today. Although market is not sustaining beyond previous short term ranges but breaking out/down daily. As moved up was seen after breaking down last Friday and moved down after breaking out yesterday therefore technical positions changes sharply in such intraday volatile moves. Until market does not sustain beyond any crucial levels till then short term views within mentioned ranges should be maintained. Follwing ranges and levels should be watched for next immediate confirmations:-

1- For up move- Firstly closing above 6015 and then sustaining above 6069.
2- For up move- First break out range is 5940-6045
3- For down move- 1st break down range is 5960-6045
4- For down move- 2nd support at- 5870
5- For down move- 3rd support at- 5820
6- For down move- 4th support at- 5730
7- For down move- 5th support at- 5690

Firstly down move expected and then next moves will be decided according to break out/down and intraday charts formations.

As I have been busy therefore could not post Weekly of this week but above mentioned 7 levels and ranges will give direction in whole week.

Trading Levels for 28-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 28-12-10

R3 6087
R2 6066
R1 6032
AVG 6011
S1 5977
S2 5956
S3 5922

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 28-12-10

R3 6104
R2 6083
R1 6047
AVG 6026
S1 5990
S2 5969
S3 5933

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 28-12-10

R3 11670
R2 11620
R1 11550
AVG 11500
S1 11430
S2 11380
S3 11310  

Market Outlook(27-12-2010)

Nifty traded most of the time within 5955-6024 in last week. Selling seen in 3 days and Indian markets surged sharp last Friday after following news in media and Economic times website:-

News at 11:40am on 24-12-2010 economictimes.com:-"The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets"

Link of the news is as follows:-

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/finance-ministry-again-asks-labour-ministry-to-invest-part-of-epf-in-markets/articleshow/7153801.cms

As 3 days selling therefore Nifty firstly slipped,got support below 27% retracement level,almost tested and closed near the top of the week. As last Friday up move was on the back of positive news therefore sustaining above the top(6069) of last 25 sessions is must for confirmation of break out and intermediate term trend turning upward. Mentioned last Friday news is strong and its coming into being will mean strong rally in Indian markets after generation of huge investible funds. Break out will mean decisive strong rally toward all time high after clearing following reistances:-

1- 6040-6070
2- 6080-6120
3- 6180-6195
4- 6250-6320(strong resistance)

Trading Levels for 27-12-10 & Next Week

Nifty Spot Levels for 27-12-10

R3 6116
R2 6066
R1 6039
AVG 5989
S1 5962
S2 5912
S3 5885

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 27-12-10

R3 6138
R2 6089
R1 6063
AVG 6014
S1 5988
S2 5939
S3 5913

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 27-12-10

R3 11748
R2 11656
R1 11595
AVG 11503
S1 11442
S2 11350
S3 11289

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (27 Dec to 31 Dec 2010)

R3 6181
R2 6102
R1 6057
AVG 5978
S1 5933
S2 5854
S3 5809

Rs 5 lakh crore Corpus Investment in Stock Markets News triggered Sharp Rally Today

The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets.

Sharp surge in Indian markets was due to above news today

Full news with link of this news is posted below.

Finance Ministry again asks labour ministry to invest part of EPF in markets

24 Dec, 2010, 11.40AM IST, Amiti Sen,ET Bureau

NEW DELHI: The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets.

In a recent letter, North Block has categorically ruled out providing any guarantee on returns on such investments, but said safeguards could be built to minimise risks and maximise gains for subscribers.

“The finance ministry’s refusal to guarantee returns continues to worry us, but we are willing to look at the suggestions made,” a labour ministry official told ET. The official did not reveal the details of the investment pattern suggested by North Block.

The finance ministry had earlier proposed that the EPF organisation could set aside 15% of funds for investments in the stock market and need not seek a nod from the Central Board of Trustees, or CBT, the policymaking body of the employees’ provident fund organisation, or EPFO.

The labour ministry is, however, clear that it cannot decide on the issue unilaterally, sidestepping the Central Board of Trustees. The EPFO, which manages the provident fund savings of approximately 4.7 crore organised sector workers, has steadfastly declined to invest provident fund accumulations in equities.

Following a decision by the trustees, Labour Secretary PC Chaturvedi had written to the finance ministry that it would be willing to do so, if the finance ministry guaranteed safety of investments and assured some minimum return on such investments. “We will place the suggestions made by the finance ministry before the CBT, which will take a final call on the matter,” the official said.

The EPFO has been giving 8.5% return on funds annually since 2005-06, which rose to 9.5% this year after it disbursed some unaccounted money in the fund. The fund has a corpus of Rs 3 lakh crore, and private trustees, which follow the fund’s investment pattern, have another Rs 2 lakh crore.

The finance ministry has argued investing a portion of the Rs 5 lakh crore EPF corpus in stocks would help the fund generate higher returns than the government-backed securities that the fund currently invests in. North Block had pointed out that the new pension scheme, or NPS, which invested part of the money in stock markets, earned a much higher 14.5% return last year.

The EPFO has reasoned that it cannot invest in equities because it is required to generate and credit income to account balances every year.

The labour ministry also argued that both schemes cannot be compared as NPS keeps money till retirement while employees are allowed to withdraw money from provident fund for various purposes like education, marriage, etc.
“These are real payouts we have to make. Roughly about Rs 20,000 crore is paid out every year to almost 60-80 lakh people,” the official said.

Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research does not buy the logic. “It is more risky not to invest in equities because returns on government-backed securities could go down to very low levels and it would be more difficult for the EPFO to explain a lower, say a 5.5%, return,” he said. 

Source:- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/finance-ministry-again-asks-labour-ministry-to-invest-part-of-epf-in-markets/articleshow/7153801.cms

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 23-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(SHORTED ON 23-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY(WE MAY SHORT AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)-CMP-6010

Pre-Open Market Outlook(24-12-2010)

Long term and short term trends are up. Intermediate term trend is side ways for the last 24 sessions within 5690-6069. Nifty is trading near the top of range for the last 3 days within 5958-6024. Crossing of 6024 will mean begining of fresh rally towards all time high after completion of intermediate term correction and drifting below 5958 will mean continuation of 24 sessions range bound corrective markets.

1- 24 Sessions EOD Chart:-

Last 3 sessions range bound market(5958-6024) break out will decide next big moves of Indian markets and only intraday charts formations of last 3 days will decide side of market.

2- 3 Days Intraday Chart:-

As per my view last 3 sessions intraday charts are suggesting selling formations and breaking down expected to test following fibonacci retracement levels:-

23.6%- 5979
27.0%- 5966
38.2%- 5924
50.0%- 5880
61.8%- 5834
70.7%- 5801
76.4%- 5779
88.6%- 5733

Opening will depend on Global cues but finally begining of down move expected to test above mentioned levels.

Trading Levels for 24-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 24-12-10

R3 6043
R2 6024
R1 6002
AVG 5983
S1 5961
S2 5942
S3 5920

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10

R3 6042
R2 6027
R1 6011
AVG 5996
S1 5980
S2 5965
S3 5949

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10

R3 11682
R2 11625
R1 11566
AVG 11509
S1 11450
S2 11393
S3 11334  

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 23-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-6036-TGT-5924-CMP-5995
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5995

Mid-Session Outlook-2(23-12-2010)

Narrow range market with intraday consolidation indications in Indices and many Pivotals stocks therefore today intraday range(5980-5995) will be kept in mind for next immediate moves confirmations. As last 3 sessions intraday patterns showed selling also therefore first indication will be dran from today range break out and next bigger move confirmation will come from yesterday wider range break out(5958-6023)

Mid-Session Outlook(23-12-2010)

Completely narrow range market today and Intraday support seems at lower levels also therefore today intraday range(5980-5995) will be watched for next immediate moves confirmations. Although confirmation required but Nifty intraday chart is indicating Inverse Head & Shoulder(Bullish) formation today.

NIFTY-DEC FUT-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 22-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(STBT-SHORTED ON 22-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5991

Fresh Down Move Triggered

Pre-Open Market Outlook(23-12-2010)


Indian maekets closed positive on 21-12-2010 but I did not posted bullish views but projected bearish views in following words yesterday:-

1- intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions
2-  until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only.

I told for distribution on 21-12-2010 and Nifty dipped below its lowest within half hour forceful down move yesterday. Bearish views were given amid bullish global sentiments because intraday charts were suggesting weakness.

Last 3 days intraday charts analysis:-

Half Hour Down Move of 22-12-2010 nullified following intraday up moves:-

1- 4 hours move of 22-12-2010 nullified
2- Whole day move of 21-12-2010 nullified
3- 2 hours higher band move of 20-12-2010 nullified

As intraday selling therefore mentioned up moves neutralised within half hour down moves.

1- 3 days intraday chart:-

Nifty traded with intraday genuine selling patterns within 6004-6023 yesterday and previous session intraday selling has also been shown above. Strong resistance was already at 6015 and it has  strenghtened yesterday after genuine selling surrounding it therefore 10th Dec started upmove terminated and Indian markets will be understood range bound within 5690-6069. Double top and double bottom at the both sides of this range and fresh consolidation/distribution in the coming weeks will decide the side of break out. Let market prepare then break out side will be decied accordingly.

Following supports testing expected now:-

1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775

Yesterday begun weakness will be seen today and in the coming sessions.

Trading Levels for 23-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 23-12-10

R3 6084.33
R2 6053.67
R1 6019.33
AVG 5988.67
S1 5954.33
S2 5923.67
S3 5889.33

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10

R3 6102.33
R2 6072.67
R1 6036.33
AVG 6006.67
S1 5970.33
S2 5940.67
S3 5904.33

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10

R3 11887.67
R2 11783.33
R1 11643.67
AVG 11539.33
S1 11399.67
S2 11295.33
S3 11155.67

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 22-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-6036-TGT-5924-CMP-6000
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6000

Post-Open Outlook(22-12-2010)

Nifty trading above 6015 after Asian markets led positive cues today morning. If Nifty sustains above 6015 today then it will be rally confirmation therefore should be watched for trend confirmations.

Trading Levels for 22-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 22-12-10

R3 6065
R2 6036
R1 6018
AVG 5989
S1 5971
S2 5942
S3 5924

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10

R3 6082
R2 6052
R1 6031
AVG 6001
S1 5980
S2 5950
S3 5929

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10

R3 11967
R2 11790
R1 11683
AVG 11506
S1 11399
S2 11222
S3 11115

Pre-Open Market Outlook(22-12-2010)

Strong Asian markets triggered break out(5950-5985) and Nifty traded most of the time and closed above it yesterday but intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions therefore until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only. As very short term moves remain news generated sentiments also therefore mentioned confirmation is required because yesterday up move are not supported by intraday consolidation patterns.

All the global markets closed with good gains yesterday and US markets are also trading 1/2% up at this moment therefore bullish sentiment is maintained and Nifty will hover around 6000 today in the begining. 5985-6015 is next move confirmation range. Nifty above 6015 will mean fresh rally after correction completion and below 5985 will mean maintaining of range bound markets.

Let market open then will be informed accordingly as was done in Post-open outlook within first half hour yesterday.

Post-Open Outlook(21-12-2010)

Posiitive market today after strong Asian cues today morning. Now trading in the upper band(5950-5985) of yesterday range. As selling was seen in this range therefore fresh consolidation is required to cross it and follow up selling within mentioned range will mean begining of very short term down moves.

Sustaining beyond or froceful break out of 5950-5985 will give next very short term move confirmations.

Trading Levels for 21-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 20-12-10

R3 6073
R2 6029
R1 5988
AVG 5944
S1 5903
S2 5859
S3 5818

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10

R3 6106
R2 6053
R1 6006
AVG 5953
S1 5906
S2 5853
S3 5806

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10

R3 11590
R2 11517
R1 11406
AVG 11333
S1 11222
S2 11149
S3 11038

Indian Stock Markets Detailed Research for coming weeks/months

Pre-Open Market Outlook(21-12-2010)

Only 16 points trend decider trading range(5940-5956) was given in weekly,Nifty could not broke out mentioned small range in 84 points volatile market and closed flat exactly within it at 5947 yesterday. Following lines were also told yesterday and being repeated today for deciding that big move which is expected after sustaining beyond 5940-5956:-

1- Indian markets are riped for up moves.

2- until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.

3- complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940

As Indian markets were riped for up moves therefore up moves were seen immediate after opening yesterday despite weaker global cues. Down moves were not seen in the begining because complete selling was required and were seen after complete selling at higher levels yesterday.

Following lines were told in Mid-session outlook yesterday and repeating today:-

"Intraday charts are suggesting selling at higher levels but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940"

Dissection of intraday patterns of last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) for deciding next moves and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves:-

1- 5855-5890(intraday buying on 16-12-2010)
2- 5940-5956(intraday selling on 16-12-2010)
3- 5960-5985(intraday selling on 20-12-2010)

Indian markets are flat,not trending and side ways points have already been discussed in weekly and last 2 sessions intraday patterns are also showing same patterns through lower level buying and higher level selling.

Markets takes its own time for taking positions and preperations and same is being happened for the last 21 sessions. Multiple supports at lower levels and multiple resistances at higher levels also. Indian markets will prepare for next moves and crossing of next supports/resistances will decide next direction. Following supports and resistances of last 21 sessions should be kept in mind for finding next move target. Base range is 5940-5956 and next moves will be decided from sustaining sustaining beyond:-

Sustaining below 5940 will mean testing of following supports:-

1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775

Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385.

Sustaining above 5956 will mean testing of following Resistances:-

1- 5960-5985
2- 5970-6015
3- 6040-6070

Sustaining above 6070 will mean testing of follwong next resistances:-

4- 6080-6120
5- 6180-6195
6- 6250-6320(strong resistance)

Sustaing above 6320 will mean continuation of `Wave 3 towards new highs of Indian markets. Correction is on and only its completion has to be decided. Let market start to sustain above or below mentioned levels and accoring to that correction completion will be decided.

Firstly get confirmation from breaking out of 5940-5956 but it is small 16 points range and next big move will be cooked within last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves.

Indian markets will move according to above mentioned levels in the coming weeks/months therefore should be kept in mind.

Mid-Session Outlook(20-12-2010)

Following range was given for trend confirmation and nifty is hovering around it since opening today:-

"Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"

Nifty opened and traded firstly below 5940 but could not sustained and recovered after 2 hours and trading above 5956. Intraday charts are suggesting selling patterns but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940.

Just watch mentioned range tomorrow and it will be safer to trade according to sustaining above or below 5940-5956.

Post-Open Outlook(20-12-2010)

It was told in weekly for last 40 minutes intraday trading of previous thursday:-

1- "last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications"
2- "Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"

Nifty opened and trading weak below 5940 after negative news from Asian markets and specially from Shanghai markets. As today weakness is news based therefore fresh selling patterns are must for sustaining below 5940. Although short covering(selling) indication seen in last 40 minutes of previous Thursday but big down moves can not be projected from only 40 minutes intraday moves and complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940 and that will be decided after minimum 3/4 hours trading today. Let market prepare then will be decided firstly from intraday patterns and finally from sustaining beyond mentioned range.

16 Points Range(5940-5956) Break Out is Next Trend Decider

Weekly Analysis- 20-12-2010 to 24-12-2010

Long term and short term are up. Intermediate term trend(5932) is sideways for the last 20 sessions. Following points are also suggesting that Indian markets are flat and not trending:-

1- Nifty is at the middle of Bollinger Band.
2- 8,21 and 55 Day EMA are moving flat within 5910-5945.
3- Nifty trading a little below the middle point of last 75 sessions.

Last 3 sessions are range bound within 5855-5956 and its break out will give following moves:-

1- Sustaining above 5956 will mean immediate testing of next strong resistance 5970-6015. Sustaing above 6015 will mean strong rally.
2- Sustaining below 5855 will mean tesing of following ranges:-
a- 5785-5820
b- 5745-5775
3- Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385

1-Bollinger Band Chart:-

2-Symmetrical Triangle Formation Chart:-

3-Flat Averags Chart:-

4- Last 3 days Intraday Chart:-

Analysis of last 3 sessions range bound move to decide next moves

Break out implications of last 3 sessions range(5855-5956) has been discussed above and its dissection is as follows to decide break out direction:-

1- 1st day-Nifty traded within 5880-5940 with selling at higher levels.
2- 2nd day-Nifty traded within 5870-5940 with intraday consolidation patterns.
3- 3rd day-Sentiment completely depressed due to fear of DMK withdrawing support news from Union Govt. during trading hours or in next 3 days of holidays. Last 2 range broken both sides,firstly lower to 5855 and then at higher side to 5956.
4- 3rd day intraday analysis- Firstly intraday support within 5855-5890 and then last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications.

Indian markets got support at lower levels in most depressed sentiment last Thursday and closd near day's higher levels. As last 40 minutes intraday charts are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 5956 confirmation is must for that rally about which has been mentioned above.

Conclusions

Intermediate term trend is undecided in last 20 sessions, 2 times it has turned down and also turned up 2 times. Let it find decisive direction through breaking out trend deciding following crucial levels then sustains moves toward that side:-

1- Sustaining above 6015 will be up trend confirmation.
2- sustaining below 5690 will be down trend confirmation.

Last Thursday sharp up moves in most depressed sentiment is strong indication of decisive up moves and if Nifty sustains above 5956 in the begining of week then that will be correction completion confirmation. Indian markets are riped for up moves after last Thursday sharp surge and until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.

Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956 and enjoy whole weeek move towards that side.

Trading Levels for 20-12-10 & Next Week

Nifty Spot Levels for 20-12-10

R3 6087
R2 6022
R1 5987
AVG 5920
S1 5885
S2 58120
S3 5785

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 20-12-10

R3 6126
R2 6050
R1 6007
AVG 5936
S1 5895
S2 5822
S3 5770

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 20-12-10

R3 11990
R2 11774
R1 11620
AVG 11401
S1 11254
S2 11030
S3 10883

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (20 Dec to 24 Dec 2010)

R3 6165
R2 6062
R1 6005
AVG 5900
S1 5845
S2 5742
S3 5685

Post-Open Outlook(16-12-2010)

Positive opening despite weaker global cues on expected lines because yesterday intraday charts consolidation patterns and RBI Credit policy will give final cues but selling on the back of positive credit policy can not be ruled out today. Cautious approach required because weakness expected in US markets in coming sessions.

Trading Levels for 16-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 16-12-10

R3 6010
R2 5979
R1 5935
AVG 5900
S1 5855
S2 5824
S3 5782

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 16-12-10

R3 6025
R2 5988
R1 5944
AVG 5907
S1 5861
S2 5826
S3 5777

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 16-12-10

R3 11934
R2 11775
R1 11494
AVG 11336
S1 11058
S2 10896
S3 10614

Pre-Open Market Outlook(16-12-2010)

Down moves were expected yesterday therefore such moves were projected and seen also but intraday charts showed consolidations therefore following lines were told before 02:00 pm yesterday:-

1- intraday trading patterns are not showing selling today
2- intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations today

As intraday patterns showed consolidation within 5870-5940 yesterday therefore sustaining below is must for any down move confirmation and if Nifty does not sustain below 5870 and cross 5940 then fresh strong up moves will be seen. Selling in previous sessions and buying yesterday are suggesting to get confirmations from break out of 5870-5940.

Last 14 sessions EOD chart is showing symmetrical triangle and it is continuation pattern. Break out of this pattern should be watched for next strong and decisive move confirmations.

1- Symmetrical Triangle (Continuation Pattern) Chart:-

Following news will also be crucial therefore should be kept in mind.

1- Credit policy today and any type of rates hike not expected. Banks facing liquidity problem and CRR cut can not be ruled out today after decline of inflation and encouraging IIP,GDP data.

2- DMK may withdraw support after CBI raids but in that situation there will be no danger to Union Govt because required 9 MPs support will be easily managed(AIADMK & SP) by Congress and no impact on Govt stability will be seen. As Stock markets moves on sentiments therefore in this situation panic selling and bottom possibility can not be ruled out therefore caution required. If supports withdrawl news comes during trading hours then it may cause panic therefore trading long positions should be held with stop loss in system. It is also very much expected that market will bounce back after any panic because Govt will survive finally and supports arrangements would have been done before CBI raids. As it may happen therefore should be kept in mind.

Mixed intraday formations in last 2 sessions and above mentioned news flow will also influence market today therefore today intraday formations will tell first for preperation of next moves and sustaing beyond after break out(5870-5940) will give next moves confirmations. Above shown Symmetrical Triangle break out will confirm next big move.

Today may be high volatile day therefore cautious approach required.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(15-12-2010)

Most Asian markets closed flat to negative,European markets also opened in Red today and Indian markets are also trading weak within 5880-5940. Although Indian market is weak since morning today but intraday trading patterns are not showing selling today therefore down movw confirmation point is dipping below 5880. As intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations today therefore moving above 5940 will be fresh up move confirmation.

I posted my bearish view in Pre-Open Outlook for today and Indian markets are trading in Red since opening today but intraday patterns are suggesting above mentioned conclusions therefore final view will be formed according to break out of today trading range(5880-5940) because intraday trading patterns did not showed follow up selling today.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(15-12-2010)

Selling seen today between 5930-5940 also.

Mid-Session Outlook(15-12-2010)

Minor intraday support seen between 5900-5915.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-12-2010)

Decline in inflations triggered up move and positive markets seen yesterday but intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations and intraday patterns suggesting distribution also. Next resistance range is 5970-6015 and until Nifty will not sustain above it till then decisive rally will not be seen.

Nifty rallied 233 points in last 3 sessions with intraday selling formations and expected that Nifty will not sustain above 6015 in on going rally despite closing near day's high yesterday. Opening will depend on global cues today but finally down moves toward last 3 sessions lows expected in the coming sessions and fresh down moves will be seen either from today or tomorrow.

Trading Levels for 15-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 15-12-10

R3 6033
R2 5995
R1 5967
AVG 5929
S1 5905
S2 5865
S3 5838

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 15-12-10

R3 6049
R2 6008
R1 5985
AVG 5945
S1 5922
S2 5880
S3 5857

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 15-12-10

R3 11915
R2 11796
R1 11707
AVG 11589
S1 11505
S2 11385
S3 11296

Mid-Session Outlook(14-12-2010)

Inflation for Nov 2010 decreased from 8.58 to 7.48(MoM) and triggered up move in Indian markets through breaking out 5914 by force. Testing of next resistance range(5970-6015) is expected now and  closing above 5914 is must tody because break out is on the back of good news.

Post-Open Outlook(14-12-2010)

Positive opening and then slipping to 5900 seen in early trades. Nifty trading above 5900 since opening today and sustaining above or below it will be first indication of next move.

Rising Wedge(Selling Pattern) within 5874-5914 seen in last 1 hour yesterday and breaking down of this range will be first strong indication of next move.

Trading Levels for 14-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 14-12-10

R3 6068
R2 5991
R1 5947
AVG 5872
S1 5830
S2 5755
S3 5714

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 14-12-10

R3 6199
R2 6092
R1 6011
AVG 5904
S1 5823
S2 5716
S3 5635

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 14-12-10

R3 11982
R2 11791
R1 11675
AVG 11484
S1 11368
S2 11177
S3 11061

Pre-Open Market Outlook(14-12-2010)

As Indian markets were not prepared for any side moves therefore following lines wete told in Weekly:-

Indian markets will first prepare for next moves within 5800-5900 and then next moves will be seen according to above mentioned targets. Indian markets will first prepare within mentioned range and then next moves will be understood:-

1- Firstly from intraday trading patterns.
2- Secondly after breaking out of 5800-5900.

Nifty traded within 5796-5914 yesterday but intraday moves witnessed news based(Korean war) huge voltality in following manner:-

1- Nifty slipped 80 points in just 16 minutes after Korean war news in business news channels.
2- Retail traders panic selling seen between 5800-5830 and after that Nifty surged 40 points within 12 minutes.
3- 40 points upmove with Rising Wedge(Selling Pattern) within 5874-5914 seen in last 1 hour.

Although Nifty closed at the top of the day but yesterday trading patterns are showing mixed signals because consolidation patters within 5800-5830 and distribution patterns within 5874-5914. Nifty has to sustain above 5914 finally for decisive upmoves and sustaining below 5800 will mean sharp declines. Break out implications of 5800-5900 has already been discussed in weekly of this week.

As Indian markets closed at the top of the day therefore Firstly sustaining above 5900 will be watched. Sustaining above 5900 will mean move toward next resistance 5970-6015. Sustaining below 5900 will mean testing possibility of next support range(5800-5830).

Let intraday moves develop then conclusions and next expected moves will be posted in Mid-Session Outlooks.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(13-12-2010)

Sharp declines seen after korean war news on business news channels and that results retail traders panic selling between 5800-5830. 5800 should be watched for down move confirmations,sustaining below it will mean sharp dclines.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(13-12-2010)

Intraday charts showing weakness today. 5800 should be watched for down move confirmations,sustaining below it will mean sharp dclines.

Mid-Session Outlook(13-12-2010)

Intraday charts showing weakness today.

SEBI probe into rigging will clean up mkt: Bhave

Securities & Exchange Board of India chairman CB Bhave said the investigation into incidents of price-rigging carried out by his agency and investigations by other government departments are cleaning up the rot in the market that would protect investors. "Investors should be happy that the market is getting cleaned up," Bhave said. "There is no need for investors to be nervous. Investors should be happy that wrong-doers are caught."

Investor confidence in markets has been ruffled in the past few weeks with the Central Bureau of Investigation arresting some bank officials on charges of corruption, including the LIC Housing Finance chief executive. SEBI had charged promoters and brokers of rigging stock prices.

The Intelligence Bureau had reportedly passed on information to the market regulator about some brokers' involvement in price manipulation in specific stocks.

"We are on the job of investigation... all the time coordinating with other government agencies," said Bhave without getting into the specifics of the operation.

Indian shares which have fallen 7% since its recent peak, rose on Friday. The 30-share BSE Sensex, rose 266.53 points, or 1.39%, to 19,508.89.

Reports of widening investigation by several agencies dragged down many shares such as that of KS Oils , Ruchi Soya Industries and Karuturi Global during the week.

Prior to that, SEBI penalised promoters of companies such as Murli Industries , Welspun and real estate developer Ackruti City for colluding with stock broker Sanjay Dangi to manipulate share prices.

This was preceded by the arrest of seven officials from the Bank of India , Punjab National Bank and the chief executive of Money Matters, an intermediary in the loans market, for corruption. Some of them are out on bail.

Source:-http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/regulation/SEBI-probe-into-rigging-will-clean-up-mkt-Bhave/articleshow/7079996.cms

Trading Levels for 13-12-10 & Next Week

Nifty Spot Levels for 13-12-10

R3 7385
R2 6625
R1 6243
AVG 5481
S1 5098
S2 4337
S3 3950

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 13-12-10

R3 7403
R2 6646
R1 6260
AVG 5505
S1 5120
S2 4367
S3 3981

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 13-12-10

R3 12189
R2 11865
R1 11681
AVG 11362
S1 11177
S2 10857
S3 10676

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (13 Dec to 17 Dec 2010)

R3 7724
R2 6899
R1 6375
AVG 5549
S1 5028
S2 4204
S3 3680

Weekly Analysis- 13-12-2010 to 17-12-2010

Long term trend is up. Intermediate term and short term trends are down in on going correction. Last 2 sessions intraday moves were gripped by the fear phycology of IB report on stock market scams. Report not disclosed and only SEBI chief statement came out that investors should not worry.

Indian markets recovered from day's lows on the back of good double digit IIP data last Friday after forming higher bottom support at rising trend line.

1-Higher Bottom Support at Rising Trend Line Chart-

As this up move was on the back of good IIP data therefore it may be short covering rally also and confirmations required. Nifty traded last 5 hours within 5800-5850 last Friday with distribution signals and 5850-5900 is next resistance. Market has to undergo a complete process for begining of rally,let it happen then up move possibilities will be considered.  Until Nifty will not sustain above 5900 till then any sustained rally will not be seen.

Indian markts retraced after good selling at higher levels and 26-11-2010 started pull back also could not cross resistance at 6015 as well as slipped sharply in last week after 4 days narrow range moves. As correction is on therefore following possibilities will be kept in mind:-

1- Intermediate term trend is down in on going correction and its character is testing of 200 Day EMA(today at 5564)
2- ABC correction is on. A & B waves have been completed and C wave is on. Its calculation is as follows:-

A- 6339-5690= 649 points down
B- 5690 to 6034 and then correction restarted after 4 days range bound move.
C- 6034-649(100% of A)=5385(Expected target of C)

2-ABC correction showing daily Chart:-

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-

Rally terminated at 6339 and will correct whole rally which started from 5349 on 31-08-2010. On going 990 points rally will correct according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-

13.0%- 6210
23.6%- 6105
27.0%- 6071
38.2%- 5960
50.0%- 5844
61.8%- 5727
70.7%- 5639
76.4%- 5582
78.6%- 5560
88.6%- 5461

3-Fibonacci Retracement Levels Chart-

Conclusions

Last 2 sessions down and up moves were based on news. Markets tanked down after announcement of Home ministery probe order on IB report leakage last Thursday and surged after good IIP data last Friday. These 2 days news based intraday moves were within 4735-4870 and lot of sentiments based high activities seen within this range. Next moves confirmations required in the begining of week:-

1- 5850-5900 is next resistance range and fresh consolidation requires for sustaining above 5900 and if Indian markets consolidate in the begining of week and Nifty sustains above 5900 then only next upmove will be considered. It should be kept in mind that 6015 is strong reistance decisive rally will be confirmed after sustaining above it only.

2- As last Friday surge was good IIP data fuelled therefore short covering possibility within last 5 hours trading range( 5800-5850)of last Friday can not be ruled out and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong indication of next moves. If Nifty finally sustains below 5800 then above mentioned ABC correction acoording to mentioned fibonacci retracement levels will be seen.

Indian markets will first prepare for next moves within 5800-5900 and then next moves will be seen according to above mentioned targets. Indian markets will first prepare within mentioned range and then next moves will be understood:-

1- Firstly from intraday trading patterns.
2- Secondly after breaking out of 5800-5900.

As pull back rally fused in last week after 4 days narrow range moves near 6000 and that complete consolidations requires for any up moves which has not started yet as well as selling patterns in Indices and many pivotal stocks therefore finally down moves below 5800 expected in the coming week but precautionally confirmations will also be taken from above mentions ways.

Mid-Session Outlook(10-12-2010)

Sentiment was completely depressed therefore recovery seen for change of sentiment on the back of improved IIP data. Confusion in market on IB report and implications of its leakages. Let it disclose and according to that its seariousness will be known till then confusion only. Voltality remains high in selling markets and today 1% rise may be its part also. 5850-5900 is next resistance and until that will not clear till then any type of next up move will not be considered.

Correction is on and today up moves are only sentiment based therefore any decisive up move will be considered only after confirmations.

Trading Levels for 10-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 10-12-10

R3 6093
R2 6015
R1 5890
AVG 5817
S1 5695
S2 5615
S3 5491

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10

R3 6075
R2 6008
R1 5896
AVG 5825
S1 5711
S2 5642
S3 5525

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10

R3 12014
R2 11813
R1 11496
AVG 11300
S1 10985
S2 10789
S3 10472

Pre-Open Market Outlook(10-12-2010)

Following line was told in last conclusive paragraph for yesterday:-

"Opening will depend on global cues but sustaining above 5945 not expected and finally down moves toward 5690 expected either from today or tomorrow"

Down move was seen and Nifty cloed 137 points down as well as yesterday lowest was at 4742.

4 days narrow range move after pull back rally was the key and sustaining below it was confirmation of fresh down move toward the low of correction and that was seen yesterday.

ABC correction is on. A & B waves have been completed and C wave is on. Its calculation is as follows:-

A- 6339-5690= 649 points down
B- 5690 to 6034 and then correction restarted after 4 days range bound move.
C- 6034-649(100% of A)=5385(Expected target of C)

ABC correction showing daily Chart:-

Long term trend is up. Short and intermediate term trends are down. Intermediate term trend is confirm down and its character is testing of 200 Day EMA(today at 5561)

I told following lines yesterday:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."

Same lines repeating today also:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."

EOD charts are showing weak structure and complete selling patterns in intraday charts also therefore further down moves possibility can not be ruled out.

Today market moves will depend on on Govt clarification on IB report leakage but finally down moves will be seen. As per my view 200 Day EMA will be next trend decider and lot of process has to be completed for fresh rally. Complete consolidation requires for any type of upmoves and until that will not complete till then any type of rally should not be expected.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(09-12-2010)

Down move confirmation for today also after breaking 5877.

India's food inflation rate rises slightly to 8.69%

India's food inflation rate rose slightly to 8.69 for the week ended November 27 from 8.60 in the previous week, an official statement said here today, quoting provisional data.

The statement showed that the inflation rate for fuel remained unchanged from the previous week's level 9.99 per cent in the week ended November 27.

Mid-Session Outlook(09-12-2010)

Although global sentiment is little positive but mood depressed in indian markets due to scams. Nifty got intraday support at 5877 and traded up to 5910 as well as showed higher bottom also. AS sentiment dampened therefore fresh selling required today to break 5877 and little up move possibility can not be ruled out Until Nifty does not sustain above 6045 till then any decisive up move will not be considered. Thin volumes lacklustre market today and next trend signal will be drawn from the break out of today first 2 hours range(5877-5915). Upward break out will set up move up to 5945 and below 5877 will mean continuation of that down move which started after breaking down of 4 days narrow range moves.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(09-12-2010)

View was bullish for yesterday but after watching global sentiments I clearly told my changed view 3 times upto 1st hour of trading yesterday for saving any type of loss:-

1- Firstly told in half hour before opening in Pre-Open Market Outlook-2:- yesterday trading range(5945-5990) should be kept in mind for next up move confirmations.

2- Secondly told within 15 minutes after opening in Post-open outlook:- if Nifty sustains below 5945 then it will be termination of last week started pull back rally.

3- Thirdly told within 1 hour after opening inPost-Open Outlook-2:- After watching today down force it is expected that Nifty will not able to sustain above 5945.

It has been seen in last 5 sessions that ranges are being broken out and broken down after global cues and different news therefore sustaining beyond has to be seen for confirmations according to 2/3 days closing beyond technical requirements. Nifty closed below 5945 yesterday and if it happens today also then that will be confirmation of breaking down.

Although sustaining below question is left to be replied but It is clear from EOD charts that 4 days narrow range has been broken down and yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations. It seems that last week begun pull back rally has been finished yesterday and expected that Nifty will sustain below 5945 as well as more down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.

Opening will depend on global cues but sustaining above 5945 not expected and finally down moves toward 5690 expected either from today or tomorrow.

Mid-Session Outlook(08-12-2010)

Indian markets showed complete weakness today and broken down last 4 days range for the reasons below:-

1- US markets lost all the gains and closed flat after Ben Bernanke's pessimistic comments about the nation's economy yesterday.
2- US futures trading in Red since morning today and more than 45 points down at this moment.
3- Petroleum rates hiking news.
4- China(SSE) .95% and Hangsang 1.5% down.

As sustaining below last 4 days range therefore more down move expected.

Post-Open Outlook-2(08-12-2010)

After watching today down force it is expected that Nifty will not able to sustain above 5945.

Post-Open Outlook(08-12-2010)

Last 4 days trading range broken down by force after weaker Asian cues and US futures today therefore if Nifty sustains below 5945 then it will be termination of last week started pull back rally.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 07-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(BOUGHT ON 07-12-2010)-US FUTURES & ASIAN MARKETS ARE WEAK TODAY MORNING THEREFORE COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5975

Pre-Open Market Outlook-2(08-12-2010)

US markets lost all intraday good gains after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's pessimistic comments about the nation's economy and closed flat therefore sentiment completely depressed and most Asian markets are Red today morning. Indian markets will trade within yesterday range first after negative opening today. Indian markets got good support at lower levels yesterday and technically up move signals are visible also but yesterday trading range(5945-5990) should be kept in mind for next up move confirmations.

3 Bullish Signals

1- MACD upward intersection of average line
2- Last 4 sessions range bound consolidations.
3- Upward break out of falling channel

6091 in on cards

Pre-Open Market Outlook(08-12-2010)

Last 4 sessions trading range is 5945-6065. Nifty slipped below 5965 but could not sustain and recovered as well as closed above. Last 4 sessions closing is as follows:-

1- 03-12-2010- 6012
2- 04-12-2010- 5993
3- 06-12-2010- 5992
4- 07-12-2010- 5977

Trading has been so close in last 4 sessions that closing has been within 35 points. Although Nifty closed at the lowest yesterday in last 4 sessions but daily candle is bullish Hammer with intraday consolidation patterns and rounding bottom formations.

1- Rounding Bottom Formations Chart-

MACD turned positive after intersecting average line upward and good consolidation seen yesterday therefore expected that Nifty will break out last 4 days range sustain above 5065 and test 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement level(6091) in the coming sessions. It seems that last 4 sessions narrow range moves will finally proove consolidation therefore expected that Nifty will clear both next resistance ranges and will test last resistance range in this month:-

1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320(last resistance range)

Positive market and Green closing expected today.

Rounding Bottom Formation(Bullish) on 07-12-2010

Nifty Intraday Chart

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 07-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5964-TGT-6064-CMP-6015
NIFTY(DEC CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE  FOR-SL-5964-TGT-6064 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6015

Pre-Closing Outlook(07-12-2010)

Range bound trading within 5945-5995 today.first 4 hours suggesting consolidation formation but could not sustain at higher level also therefore view is cautious and more confirmation required for fresh up move. Last 4 sessions indicating both buying and selling patterns and until Nifty does not sustain beyond 5945-6065 till then no confirmation.

As intraday charts are showing more consolidation formation therefore my view is turning bullish but little more confirmations are required yet.

Mid-Session Outlook(07-12-2010)

Nifty dipped 5965 and it is strong down move indication. Sustaining below 5965 will be next down move confirmation.

Water Fall(Bullish) Pattern

Pre-Open Market Outlook(07-12-2010)

For deciding next moves following factors will be kept in mind:-

1- Pull back rally is on.
2- Selling indication were seen during last 2 sessions in Last week.
3- Indian markets opened strong after positive Asian markets cues Yesterday and slipped from higher levels in "Water Fall Pattern"(Bullish Formation) in last 4 hours.
4- Consolidation was required after above mentioned last week selling indications which were seen at higher levels yesterday.
5- Yesterday higher levels slipping was attributed to rates hikes affected Banking sector down fall.

Nifty closed flat at 5992 yesterday. Last 3 sessions are suggesting:-

1- Selling indication within 5975-6020
2- Consolidation within 5980-6070 yesterday(as "Water Fall Pattern" therefore consolidation)

6015 is key and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications and Indian markets will prepare its near about for next moves in the coming sessions. Although slipped from higher levels yesterday but consolidation patterns in last 4 hours therefore 6015 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications.

Now next moves confirmation broader range is 5965-6065 and Nifty will prepare within it in the coming sessions for next moves and sustaing beyond 6015 is first strong indication point of next moves.

Although confirmations required but view turning bullish after watching "Water Fall Pattern" yesterday.

Mid-Session Outlook(06-12-2010)

Almost all the Asian markets are in green and Indian markets responding it with trading in positive zone. Nifty sustaing above 6025 since opening today and cleared previous strong resistance. Nifty next expected target is 6091

Post-Open Outlook(06-12-2010)

Strong opening and sustaining above 6025. Fresh up moove expected on the lines explained in weekly.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC FUT(SHORTED ON 03-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6045

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-MESSAGE

NIFTY DEC FUT(SHORTED ON 03-12-2010)-MARKET MAY BE VOLATILE THEREFORE PLEASE COVER AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE

Pre-Open Market Outlook(06-12-2010)

Most Asian markets are positive therefore sentiment good today morning. Some banks hiked deposit and lending rates in last 2 days and some others are expected to follow in the coming week. Indian markets will respond these developments today and decide derection.

If Nifty sustains above 6025 then that will be confirmation of next up move. Let confirmation come then positions should be taken accordingly.

Weekly Analysis- 06-12-2010 to 10-12-2010

Following lines were told on 27-11-2010(Saturday) which prooved 100% accurate:-


"Pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations"

278 Nifty points pull back rally seen in last week which could not sustain above 6015 and Nifty closed at 5993. Last Week highest is 6030. 3 days vertical rise and 2 days narrow range moves within 5965-6025 seen during last week. Last 2 days range is now trend decider and its break out will give following moves:-

1- Sustaining above 6025 will mean clearing of strong resistance and testing of next resistance range( 6080-6120) and 61.8%(6091) retracement level.

2- Sustining below 5965 will mean strengthening of resistance at 6015(or 6025) and correction of first 3 days vertical rise of last week. If correction starts then firstly following fibonacci retracement levels should be watched for correction completion confirmations:-

23.6%- 5950
38.2%- 5900
50.0%- 5860
61.8%- 5820
76.4%- 5770
88.6%- 5728

1- Fibonacci Retracement Levels Daily Chart:-

Conclusions

As only 2 days selling indications therefore correction will be firstly expected according to above mentioned fibonacci retracement levels and if follow up selling develops in next week then deeper correction will be considered.

5965-6025 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond should be watched for next above mentioned moves.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-TRADING

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6036-TGT-5954-CMP-6023
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5954 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6023

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(SHORTED TODAY)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6020

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6036-TGT-5954-CMP-5997
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5954 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5997

Mid-Session Outlook(03-12-2010)

Nifty Hovering around yesterday last 45 minutes range(6005-6018) since opening today and sustaining beyond mentioned range will give following conclusions:-

1- Sustaining above 6015 will mean crossing strong resistance range and testing possibility of next resistance range(6080-6120) and 61.8% retracement level(6091)
2- Moving below 6005 will give first down move indication and sustaing below 5980 will give confirmation to temination of that pull back rally which started last Friday.

Intraday charts are not showing strength today.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-12-2010)

Nifty traded within 5980-6018 yesterday and intraday charts within narrow range moves are showing consolidations patterns. Yesterday intraday charts of many other pivotal stocks are also showing buying formations.Nifty traded within 6005-6018 in last 45 minutes and intraday patterns of this period are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 6015 has to be watched for next up move confirmations. Next resistance ranges are as follows and its testing is possible after sustaining above 6015:-

1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320

Pull back rally started from 5690 and its Fibonacci Retracement levels are as follows:-

13.0%- 5774
23.6%- 5843
27.0%- 5865
38.2%- 5937
50.0%- 6014
61.8%- 6091
70.7%- 6148
76.4%- 6185
78.6%- 6200
88.6%- 6265

50% retracement has been completed and next level 61.8%(6091) will be crucial because it is within next resistance range. Global markets are positive,sentiment is good today morning and sustaining above 6015 today will give confermation to sharp up move toward next resistance range. It should be kept in mind that complete distribution patterns require for begining of down move and until that will not be visible minimum within intraday charts till then any down move will not be considered.

Next up move confirmation point for today is sustaining above 6015 and next move confirmation range is 6982-6018. Intraday charts of first 2/3 hours will give confirmations to next moves and and according to that today closing and next moves will be decided.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(02-12-2010)

Market slipped from higher levels after minor profit booking. Volatality is also possible after inflation data today. As good consolidations in previous sessions therefore finally sustaining above 6015 possibility is high.

Nifty is trading within strong resistance range(5975-6015) and its break out and sustaining beyond should be watched for next move confirmations.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(02-12-2010)

I was out of station for the last 3 days therefore could not post my outlooks but before leaving I projected following conclusions in my weekly on 27-11-2010(Saturday) that:-

1- I told that "Pull Back Rally is on Cards"
2- I Posted 4 charts to proove pull back rally.
3- I Posted 7 strong reasons for pull back rally.
4- I told that "As per my view Nifty will not sustain below 5700 and minimum a pull back rally will be seen"
5- I told that "pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week"

214 Nifty points rally seen in last 3 sessions. Last strong resistance range is 5935-6015 and Nifty traded within 5935-5965 yesterday. Global markets blasting therefore sentiment strong today morning and if Nifty sutiuns above 6015 then it will be strong confirmation of Intermediate term trend turning upward and continuation of pull back rally.

Sentiment heated today morning and profit booking possibility can not be ruled out. Intraday charts of yesterday are showing good consolidations and sustaining above 6015 possibility is high as well as positive closing after gap up opening will be seen today.

Only this line is adding that today intraday charts are suggesting consolidations and no harm to uptrend which started last Friday.

As lack of time therefore posting only this conclusion.

Blog will be regularly updated from Thursday morning. Sorry for inconvience.

Pull Back Rally is on Cards

Weekly Analysis- 29-11-2010 to 03-12-2010

Following lines were told in the last conclusive paragraph of last week weekly:-

"Nifty will finally sustain below 5932 after fresh selling in the coming week and weekly closing will be Red"

Nifty not only sustained below 5932 but also weekly closing was in Red.

Nifty has retraced 61.8%(5727) of earliier rise of 990 points. Vertical fall seen in last 14 sessions and it is shown in following EOD chart.

1- Vertical Fall in last 14 Sessions Chart-

Nifty has completed 5 waves in recent fall and it is shown in following EOD chart.

2- 5 Down waves Chart-

Last Friday intraday chart is good consolidations between 5700-5800 and it is shown in following intrady chart.

3- 1 Day Intraday Chart-

4- Daily Indicators and Averages chart-

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together):- 

Nifty has suatined below 5932,Weekly MACD has given down move confirmation and intermediate term trend is confirm down. compelete consolidation required for fresh rally and in this process 200 Day EMA testing possibility can not be ruled out.

Nothing is extreme truth in all the financial markets and one has to use his discretion and judge all the situations. Following 7 deveplopments are suggesting pull back rally in this week:-

1- Last 14 sessions steep fall has been seen and such down moves can not be seen continuously therefore some upmoves are confirm.
2- Line chart is showing 5 down waves formations and 5th wave is almost equal to 1st wave. I mean to say that 5th wave is also sufficiently down therefore signaling up moves possibility.
3- 61.8% retracement has been completed.
4- Intraday charts of last Friday are showing whole day good consolidations within 5700-5800.
5- Daily and very short term indicators are sufficiently oversold and signalling sharp upmove possibility.
6- Big divergence in both lines of MACD and according to its nature it has to converge therefore in this process market has to move up.
7- Nifty is below lower band of Bollinger Band and suggesting sharp surge.

Uptrend and fresh rally confirmations levels are as follows:-

1- Sustaining above 5932
2- Crossing and sustaining above following 3 resistances
a- 5850-5895
b- 5935-5975(Strong resistance)
c- 5975-6015(Strong resistance)

Good consolidation seen last Friday within 5700-5800 but not sufficient for a rally and follow up consolidation is must in the begining of week. As per my view Nifty will not sustain below 5700 and minimum a pull back rally will be seen. Vertical fall of last 14 sessions is suggesting correction compeletion possibility also but confirmations required from coming sessions consolidations and sustaining above 6015.

Consolidations between 5700-5850 expected in the begining of week and after that pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations.

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-11-2010)

Panic sentiment today morning and Indian markets got good support at lower levels. 61.8% retracement level broken but market recovered after rounding bottom and higher bottom and higher top formations. Good support at lower levels but slipped more than 68 points from the high near 02 pm today. Although sharp slip from higher levels but today patterns are showing consolidations. If Nifty sustains above 5820 then today trading range will be support.

It is only 1st consolidation indication and follow up action is must in the coming week for convertion my bearish religion. conclusions from today intraday charts have been posted and let process complete then will be conveyed accordingly..

Mid-Session Outlook-2(26-11-2010)

Market is down and moves are extremely fast today morning. Let down trend stop and form base through double bottom/higher bottom/rounding bottom and nifty cross minimum 8 Minutes EMA then a very short term intraday buying can be done with strict stop loss below lowest.

Mid-Session Outlook(26-11-2010)

Support range for today is 5780-5850 which has been broken down in early trades today. Next crucial levels are as follows:-

1- Next support range-  5580-5640
2- 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level- 5727

61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is understood good retracement level also and should be watched for confirmation of support at this level. Keep following lessons in mind:-

1- Bottom fishing in bear markets is always injurious to wealth.
2- Buying in bear markets is like catching falling knief and resulting one'sown hand full of one's own blood.

Just watch above mentioned levels and if Nifty get support near or above levels then may start buying,initially for very short term and positions should be increased after confirmations of supports strengthening.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(26-11-2010)

It is being non stop told since long for bear markets and dipping below 5932 possibility and it has happened. My outlooks are live proofs of this fact that I told only for bullish run away rally from 05-07-2010 and that was seen. When I started to tell for correction,rally stopped and correction started after that. Let market complete its correction then I shall tell well in advance about completion of correction and commencement of fresh rally.

As intermediate term correction is confirm therefore according to market nature 200-Day EMA testing possibility is high. Markets Moves does not mature within hours but takes its own time to complete process therefore let consolidation start and finish then up moves should be expected. As short term indicators are oversold therefore minor Pull back rally can be expected after any panic bottom but rally should be expected after complete consolidations.

Resistances are as follows:-

1- 5850-5895
2- 5935-5975(Strong resistance)
3- 5975-6015(Strong resistance)
4- 6080-6120
5- 6180-6195
6- 6250-6320

Supports are as follows:-

1- 5780-5805                                      
2- 5580-5640
3- 5475-5500
4- 5420-5445
5- 5350-5370

Next Fibonacci correction levels are as follows:-

50.0%- 5844
61.8%- 5727
70.7%- 5639
76.4%- 5582
78.6%- 5560
88.6%- 5461

Nifty traded within 1st support range yesterday and expected that Nifty will hover around 5800 today. Any minor intraday up move possibility on the back of positive news or global sentiments can not be ruled out but until Nifty will not sustain minimum above mentioned 1st resistance till then any up move will not be considered. Today trading range is 5780-5850 and closing expected within it also.

6015 is Laxman Rekha

Post-Open Market Outlook(25-11-2010)

Intraday slow up moves are possible today but more or less quiet market and derivative expiery near 5900 expected today. View is bearish and 6015 is Laxman Rekha and not going to be crossed easily. Very much expected that selling will develop in the coming couple of sessions and finally fresh down moves will be seen either from tomorrow of in next week. 200 Day EMA testing posibility is high.

High Possibility of Testing 200-Day EMA(today at 5522)

Pre-Open Market Outlook(25-11-2010)

Down move Confirmations from MACD & Intraday Charts

Nifty is hovering around 5932 for the last 5 sessions and closed below it after genuine selling fomations between 5935-5975. Previous strong resistance was 5975-6015 and fresh selling was seen just below it yesterday therefore resistance within 5935-6015 is now much stronger resistance. Indian markets require complete consolidation patterns to cross this range and until it will not happened till then 6015 will not cross.

5932 was previous strong support and strong resistance developed just above(5935-6015) it therefore its breaking down and intermediate term trend turning down is confirm now. Weekly MACD gave strong down move confirmation through downward cross over therefore further down move and 200-Day EMA(today at 5522) testing is very much expected now.

Following charts are showing down move confirmation in MACD & intraday chart:-

1-5 days intraday chart-

2-MACD Down Cross Over in Weekly Chart-

Dow Jones Trading 130 points up at 10:32 pm on 24-11-2010 but above mentioned down moves are confirm and will be seen in the coming sessions. Strong global sentiment expected on 25th Nov morning and also very much posibile that Indian markets may be positive from opening to closing but will be finally down and dip below 24th Nov lower levels(5866) in the coming sessions.

Nifty sustaining below 5935 and is very much high and for precaution just watch sustaining beyond 5935-6015 for next trend confirmations.

Fresh Down move Confirmation in MACD & Intraday Chart

Nifty is hovering around 5932 for the last 5 sessions and closed below it after genuine selling fomations between 5935-5975.Previous strong resistance was 5975-6015 and fresh selling as seen just below it today therefore resistance within 5935-6015 is now much stronger resistance. Indian markets require complete consolidation patterns to cross this range and until it will not happened till then 6015 will not cross.

5932 was previous strong support and strong resistance developed above it therefore its breaking down and intermediate term trend turning down is confirm now. Weekly MACD gave strong down move confirmation through downward cross over therefore further down move and 200-Day EMA testing is very much expected now.

Following charts are showing down move confirmation in MACD & intraday chart:-

1-5 days intraday chart-

2-MACD Down Cross Over in Weekly Chart-

Dow Jones Trading 100 points up at this moment today but above mentioned down moves are confirm and will be seen in the coming sessions.