Rally continuation amid only a Very Short Term correction possibility

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 22 to Apr 26,2019)

Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Apr-2019):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion.
2- Corrective  Wave 2 beginning after Wave 1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016
3- Wave 1 gained 2142.90 points
4- Impulsive Wave 3 beginning after Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016
5- Corrective  Wave 4 beginning after Wave 3 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 
6- Wave 3 gained 3866.40 points
7- Impulsive Wave 5 beginning after Corrective Wave-4 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018
8- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with new life time top formation at 11856.15 on 18-04-2018

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Apr-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Profit booking and slipping after strong gap up opening and new life time high formations 
2- Last 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation between 11739-11792  
3- Whole day actual trading between 11739-11856

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Indian markets are very much Bullish and new life time high formation was seen at 11856.15 in previous trading session on 18-04-2018. 

As per Elliott Wave theory calculation maximum target of on going Nifty rally is at 13870.95 and it is being explained as follows:-  

As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now impulsive Wave-5 is on and it should not gain more points than Wave-3 gained(3866.40 points).

Impulsive Wave-1 gained=2142.90 points(8968.70-6825.80)
Impulsive Wave-3 gained=3866.40 points(11760.20-7893.80)
Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 1851.60 points till 18-04-2018(11856.15-10004.55) 

As per Elliott Wave theory Wave-5 can gain 3866.40 points from its beginning level(10004.55 )which means that on going Wave-5 has potential to move up to 13870.95(10004.55+3866.40) 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis(18-04-2018) 

Although strong gap up opening and new life time high formations at 11856.15 on 18-04-2019 but profit booking developed immediately after opening and nifty slipped more than 100 points in first hour which is first signal of Very Short term correction beginning. 

As last 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation between 11739-11792 therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the beginning of next week for Very Short term correction beginning below 11739 and on going rally continuation after fresh consolidation above 11856.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Rally is very much on and its continuation is expected but all the indicators from very Short to Long term are overbought therefore correction is very much due but indicators remains overbought long time during Bull markets and until complete selling pattterns will not develop on EOD and intraday charts till then any deeper correction will not be seen.

As some selling was seen on 18-04-2018 therefore eruption of Very Short Term correction possibility but follow up selling is must and sustaining beyond 11739-11792 should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week for correction beginning or rally continuation after follow up consolidation. 

Rally continuation with new life time high formations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-04-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Apr-2019):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Fresh up moves after gap up opening
2- More than 5 hours consolidation between 11768-11810
3- Whole day actual trading between 11732-11810

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly fresh up moves after gap up opening and after that more than 5 hours consolidation between 11768-11810 therefore rally continuation with new life time high formations is expected in the comimg sessions as well as 11768-11810 will be immediate support of Nifty.

Sideways market to prepare for next decisive up moves 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-04-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Apr-2019):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves with intraday corrections 
2- Whole day actual trading between 11649-11704

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at on 13-04-2019 in "Minimum 10% rally after more than 350 seats victory of NDA on 23-05-2019":-

finally rally continuation is expected above last Friday highest(11657) but follow up consolidation is also required because resistances between 11645-11682

As Nifty traded most time within above mentioned resistances today with intraday corrections therefore finally rally continuation is expected after follow up consolidation because more resistances are also lying between 11728-11761.

12 Sessions trading between 11550-11761 with lower levels buying and higher levels selling therefore still expected that nifty will remain sideways within this range tomorrow and prepare for next decisive up moves in the coming seeks.

Minimum 10% rally after more than 

350 seats victory of NDA
on 23-05-2019

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 15 to Apr 19,2019)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analyis from 29-02-2016

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Apr-2019):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion.
2- Corrective  Wave 2 beginning after Wave 1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016
3- Impulsive Wave 3 beginning after Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016
4- Corrective  Wave 4 beginning after Wave 3 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 
5- Impulsive Wave 5 beginning after Corrective Wave-4 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018
6- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent news top formation at 11761.00 on 03-04-2018

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Indian markets are most Bullish and 5th wave of that rally continuation which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016. 

Although new life time high formations at 11761.00 on 03-04-2018 but since then Nifty has turned sideways between 11550-11761 for the last 11 sessions and valid break out of this range should be firstly watched in coming week/weeks for the next decisive big moves just before or after Election results on 23rd May 2019.  

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 11 Sessions Intra Day
 Chart(Mar 29 to Apr 12,2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 29 to Apr 12,2019):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in last 11 Sessions intraday charts

1- 11 Sessions sideways trading with lower levels supports and higher levels resistances
2- Supports between 11550-11603(Immediate Supports)
3- 1st Resistance between 11645-11682
4- 2nd Resistance between 11728-11761
5- 11 Sessions actual trading between 11550-11761 

Conclusions from 11 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As last 11 Sessions sideways trading between 11550-11761 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling therefore firstly nifty will remain sideways and prepare for next decisive moves within this range in the beginning of next week.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(12-04-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Apr-2019):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 11579-11603(Immediate Supports)
3- Up moves with intraday corrections
4- Whole day actual trading between 11579-11657

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day good intraday consolidation last Friday through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel,lower levels consolidation and last hours upmoves with intraday corrections therefore finally rally continuation is expected above last Friday highest(11657) but follow up consolidation is also required because resistances between 11645-11682 are also lying near about last Friday highest.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Impulsive Wave-5 continuation and as such big selling patterns formations have not been developed till now on EOD and intraday charts which may result big correction. Only 2 sessions intraday selling resistances are lying above last Friday highest which will weaken after 1/2 sessions intraday follow up consolidation. Although some selling developed between 11728-11761 on new life time formations day but lower levels strong supports have also developed in last 11 sessions. 

In fact Indian markets are waiting for clear signals from 2019 Parliamentary Elections but as per our views Nifty will witness strong rally above life time highest(11761) because we are expecting more than 350 seats victory for NDA and resultant minimum 10% rally will be seen after Election results declaration day(23-05-2019) but fresh rally will begin before this date also.

गणतंत्र दिवस की हार्दिक शुभकामनाएं

नए साल की हार्दिक शुभकामनायें

तुलसी पूजन दिवस : 25 दिसम्बर* की आपको एवं आपके परिवार को खूब-खूब बधाई एवं शुभकामनाये 
चूँकि हम अपने ही आँगन की अपनी तुलसी को संभाल नहीं पाए इसीलिए हमारे अपने बच्चे क्रिसमस ट्री के दीवाने हो गए और आज भी होते जा रहे है।
भारतीय संस्कृति अपनाओ भारत को विश्वगुरु बनाओ। 
सफ़ेद दाड़ी में बाबा नानक देव जी ही असली सेँटा क्लॉज़ हैँ, इसीलिए ही उनकी कृपा से सैकड़ों सालों से रोजाना गुरुद्वारोँ मेँ लाखोँ भूखोँ के पेट मेँ अन्न जाता है।

समस्त भारतवासियों को दशहरा की 

हार्दिक शुभकामनाएं 

Wishing you all Indian 

Happy Dussehra
--------------
अधर्म पर धर्म की जीत
अन्याय पर न्याय की विजय
बुरे पर अच्छे की जय जयकार
यही है दशहरे का त्यौहार
--------------
विजयदशमी की शुभकामनाएं

स्वतंत्र दिवस की शुभकामनाएं

आओ झुक कर सलाम करे उनको

जिनके हिस्से में ये मुकाम आता है; 

खुशनसीब होता है 

वो खून जो देश के काम आता है! 

चड़ गये जो हंसकर सूली,

खाई जिन्होने सीने पर गोली,

हम उनको प्रणाम करते हैं,

जो मिट गये देश पर… 

हम उनको सलाम करते हैं…

As not recovered yet therefore has not been able to update Stock Market Outlooks of this week. Expecting that I shal be able to post outlooks in next week(after 21-05-2018).

As not felling well therefore has not been able to update Stock Market Outlooks of last 2 sessions. Expecting that I shal be able to post outlooks from next week.

Donald Trump announcement on Iran nuclear accord

President Donald Trump wrote in a tweet that he will announce his decision on whether the US will pull out of the Iran nuclear accord at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday(11:30 PM IST on Tuesday) in place of 12th May.

Just open following links for detailed news:-

1- https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/donald-trump-iran-nuclear-announcement/index.html
2- https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/07/us/politics/trump-announce-withdraw-us-iran-deal.html

Crucial levels will confirm next trend

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(08-05-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-May-2018):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 10636-10663
2- Up moves with intraday corrections
3- Whole day actual trading between 10636-10725

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good intraday consolidation between 10602-10666 last Friday therefore strong rally today after positive opening because sharp up moves were seen in US markets last Friday and most Asian and European markets also remained positive whole day today. 

Nifty will firstly prepare for next decisive moves within last 6 sessions trading range(10602-10770) which is having following supports and resistances:-

1- Supports between 10602-10663
2- Resistances between 10722-10770

As per our view Indian markets have to react following 2 big news in next week:-

1- Donald Trump decision of sanctioning on Iran on 12-05-2018. Indian markets will react on this news on 14-05-2018 
2- Karnataka assembly election results which was previously indicaing hung Assembly after results but heavy crowd in Modi ji's public meetings is suggesting clear victory of BJP also. Indian markets will also react on this news on 14-05-2018 after Exit poll results on 12th May evening.

As last 6 sessions trading levels(10602-10770) has become most crucial therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next trend confirmations

As not felling well therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(07-05-2018) is not being updated

Correction continuation after follow up selling 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(04-05-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-May-2018):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 10680-10710
2- Selling between 10690-10708
3- Consolidation between 10648-10669
4- Whole day actual trading between 10648-10712

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Short Term correction is on but slow and Nifty out performed also all Global markets today therefore follow up selling is firstly required for correction continuation because lower levels consolidation was also seen after higher levels selling.

As selling in last 3 sessions and Intermediate Term indicators are overbought therefore correction continuation is expected but follow up selling is fistly reuqired for sustaining below today lowest. 

Firstly watch levels for next trend confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(03-05-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-May-2018):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Slipping after positive opening
2- Mid-Session Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 10690-10770

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty spot opened more than 30 points up but Nifty May Fut opened negative and whole day traded in negative zone today therefore it will be understood first signal of weakness since opening.

Firstly slipping and after that more than 3 hours Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel are suggesting selling patterns formations but last hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel also therefore today intraday charts will be understood Mixed Patterns formations. 

Last 2 sessions trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 10690-10770 is suggesting that Nifty will have to prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this range and finally sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched in the coming sessions and next trend confirmations.

7 sessions trading range will confirm next Trend

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(02-05-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Apr-2018):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 10722-10759
2- Whole day actual trading between 10722-10759

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As most Asian markets were trading strong last Friday therefore positive opening but completely underperformed and closed 0.44% up while most Asian markets closed after gaining more than 0.90% points.

Whole day actual trading within 37 points between 10722-10759 with selling patterns formations is indicating fresh down moves beginning below 10722.

I am Bearish since long but sorry to say that I have proved completely wrong this time because rally extended due to good Quarterly results of IT companies and strong Global markets also.

7 sessions sideways trading was between 10510-10638 before 27-04-2018 and this range was broken out last Friday on the expectation of strong RIL quarterly results as well as whole day selling was seen on 30-04-2018 therefore firstly sustaining above 7 sessions trading range highest(10638) should be firstly watched in next week for the confirmation of on going rally continuation. If finally Nifty sustainins below 10638 then be cautious because sustaining below 7 sessions trading range lowest(10510) will be strong signal of on going rally completion and correction continuation towards and below 10000.

Finally slipping below 10000 without sustaining above 10638 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(27-04-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Apr-2018):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns formation between 10560-10595
2- Sharp up after 03:00 PM 
3- Whole day actual trading between 10560-10628

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although sharp up after 03:00 PM but before that whole day trading was with Mixed Patterns formation therefore view will not be Bullish because such intraday volatailty is being seen for the last 7 sessions between 10510-10638 and until Nifty will not sustain above this range till then view will not be Bullish. 

As Short and Intermediate Term indicators are overbought therefore correction was expected but not being seen and still having same view of not sustaining above 10638 as well as finally slipping too much below 10000 despite SGX Nifty today closing was 50 points up after Dow Jones strong closing with gaining 238 points.

Correction continuation expectations after follow up selling

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(26-04-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Apr-2018):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 10577-10612
2- Support between 10537-10559
3- Whole day actual trading between 10537-10612

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As firstly more than 4 hours selling between 10577-10612 therefore slipping from higher levels but not with force and some supports also seen at lower levels.   

Last 3 sessions selling between 10577-10638 and this range will be immediate resistance of Nifty but some supports are lying above 10450 therefore follow up selling is firstly required for decisive down moves. Expected that finally correction will remain continued after follow up selling in the coming sessions.