Pre-Budget Rally after Correction Completion

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 11 to Feb 15,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3 continuation(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
5- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
6- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
7- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
8- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
9- Sub Wave-5(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction continuation after Sub Wave-5 completion and its recent bottom formation at 5883.65 on 08-02-2013. Sub-Wave-5 started from 5548 and completed at 6111 and its Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:-

38.2%- 5895
50.0%- 5829
61.8%- 5763

38.2%(5895) retracement has been completed on 08-02-2013 but closing was above it at 5903.50 and slipping below it will mean testing possibility of next support at 5823 as well as next retracement level at 5829.

As strong supports(5823)are lying near 50 %(5829) retracement levels therefore high possibility of correction completion and up moves beginning from near about these levels and will be certainly considered if intraday charts will start to show consolidations there. Expected that consolidation will start near about 5823 or above it in next week and Pre-Budget Rally will commence after on going correction completion.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 08-Feb-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 08-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 08-Feb-2013 4385.02 2894.2 1490.82

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 08-Feb-2013 953.3 1662.66 -709.36

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(08-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Red except CNX INFRA and CNX IT.

2- Closing at the lowest of the day.

3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.96

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.90

Nifty P/E Ratio(08-Feb-2013): 17.75

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,005

BSE Declines : 1,837 

NSE Advances :   449

NSE Declines : 1,077

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- -6,650(-2.20%)

Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- -344,600(-5.58%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- 147,200(28.96%)

Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)- 736,300(%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 648,450(40.99%)

Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- 1,055,450(17.36%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 885,350(18.89%)

Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- -213,400(-5.01%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(Feb)- 268,550(3.61%)

Nifty- 6100  PE(Feb)- -57,150(-3.31%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,484.77(-95.55 Points & -0.49%)

Nifty- closed at 5,903.50(-35.30 Points & -0.59%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,109.45(-62.35 Points & -0.76%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at  3,502.20(-32.60 Points & -0.92%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6013
R2 5983
R1 5943
Avg 5913
S1 5873
S2 5843
S3 5803

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5973     Trgt 2
H5 5957     Trgt 1
H4 5941     Long breakout
H3 5922     Go Short
H2 5915
H1 5909
L1 5896
L2 5890
L3 5883     Long
L4 5864     Short Breakout
L5 5848     Trgt 1
L6 5832     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6035

R2 6004

R1 5962

Avg 5931

S1 5889

S2 5858

S3 5816

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5994     Trgt 2 

H5 5977     Trgt 1

H4 5961     Long breakout 

H3 5941     Go Short 

H2 5934

H1 5927

L1 5914

L2 5907

L3 5900     Long 

L4 5880     Short Breakout 

L5 5864     Trgt 1 

L6 5847     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12567
R2 12508
R1 12428
Avg 12369
S1 12289
S2 12230
S3 12150

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12487     Trgt 2
H5 12455     Trgt 1
H4 12424     Long breakout
H3 12386     Go Short
H2 12373
H1 12360
L1 12335
L2 12322
L3 12309     Long
L4 12271     Short Breakout
L5 12240     Trgt 1
L6 12208     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 11 to Feb 15,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6156

R2 6097

R1 6000

Avg 5941

S1 5844

S2 5785

S3 5688

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 6059     Trgt 2 

H5 6024     Trgt 1

H4 5988     Long breakout 

H3 5945     Go Short 

H2 5931

H1 5917

L1 5888

L2 5874

L3 5860     Long 

L4 5817     Short Breakout 

L5 5781     Trgt 1 

L6 5746     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 11 to Feb 15,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 13065

R2 12894

R1 12587

Avg 12416

S1 12109

S2 11938

S3 11631

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12759     Trgt 2 

H5 12651     Trgt 1

H4 12542     Long breakout 

H3 12411     Go Short 

H2 12367

H1 12323

L1 12236

L2 12192

L3 12148     Long 

L4 12017     Short Breakout 

L5 11908     Trgt 1 

L6 11800     Trgt 2

Post-closing Report(08-02-2013)

Certainly misunderstood market today.Sorry.

NIFTY-Feb Call Option(6000)-Positional Buying of 07-02-2013-Covering

NIFTY-Feb Call Option(6000)-Positional Bought on 07-02-2013-Cover immediately-CMP-38(Lalit39)

Mid-session Outlook(08-02-2013)

Although market slipped from higher levels and also trading below yesterday lowest but intraday patterns are not suggesting selling but on the contrary showing consolidation formations therefore up moves continuation hopes are still alive with same expectations which were updated yesterday in previous Outlook.

Up Moves after Correction Completion Today

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 5928-5938
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 5928-5978 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although previous support at 5941 broken down and trading below it also today but Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel as well as lower levels supports therefore fresh up moves will begin from tomorrow and Nifty will trade between 6000-6100 in the coming sessions after correction completion today.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 07-Feb-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 07-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 07-Feb-2013 3121.19 2294.05 827.14

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 07-Feb-2013 827.75 1817.48 -989.73

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(07-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Red except CNX IT and CNX AUTO.
2- Slipping after weaker GDP data.
3- Inverted Hammer/Gravestone Doji Bullish formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.91
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.86
Nifty P/E Ratio(07-Feb-2013):17.85

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   966
BSE Declines : 1,868
NSE Advances :   445
NSE Declines : 1,043

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- -12,300(-3.91%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)-  226,050(3.79%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- 53,200(11.48%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)- 873,700(18.87%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 210,500(15.20%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- 918,550(17.19%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 707,150(17.51%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- 103,250(2.47%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(Feb)- 1,056,850(16.51%)
Nifty- 6100  PE(Feb)- -113,850(-6.17%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,580.32(-59.40 Points & -0.30%)
Nifty- closed at 5,938.80(-20.40 Points & -0.34%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,171.80(-66.45 Points & -0.81%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,534.80(-44.80 Points & -1.25%)

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6040
R2 6016
R1 5988
Avg 5964
S1 5936
S2 5912
S3 5884

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6013     Trgt 2
H5 6001     Trgt 1
H4 5989     Long breakout
H3 5975     Go Short
H2 5970
H1 5965
L1 5956
L2 5951
L3 5946     Long
L4 5932     Short Breakout
L5 5920     Trgt 1
L6 5908     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6040

R2 6016

R1 5988

Avg 5964

S1 5936

S2 5912

S3 5884

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6013     Trgt 2 

H5 6001     Trgt 1

H4 5989     Long breakout 

H3 5975     Go Short 

H2 5970

H1 5965

L1 5956

L2 5951

L3 5946     Long 

L4 5932     Short Breakout 

L5 5920     Trgt 1 

L6 5908     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12680

R2 12606

R1 12512

Avg 12438

S1 12344

S2 12270

S3 12176

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12586     Trgt 2 

H5 12548     Trgt 1

H4 12510     Long breakout 

H3 12464     Go Short 

H2 12448

H1 12433

L1 12402

L2 12387

L3 12371     Long 

L4 12325     Short Breakout 

L5 12287     Trgt 1 

L6 12249     Trgt 2

NIFTY-Feb Call Option-Buying Trade

NIFTY-Feb Call Option(6000)-Positional-SL-34-TGT-78-CMP-56(Lalit39)

Pre-Closing Outlook(07-02-2013)

Although down moves after weaker GDP data and now again slipped below 5941 but today down moves are without required force and in Bullish Falling Channel also therefore view is not bearish despite trading below 5941. Sustaining below today lows will be watched tomorrow for next down moves confirmations because lower levels supports seen today.