Wish You All Happy New Year 2012

Wish you all a very Blessful, Bright, Prosperous, Happy, Healthy & Wealthy New Year 2012

Last Over of the Bull/Bear Match in 1st Week of 2012

Wishing you all Happy,Healthy & Prosperous 2012

Weekly Outlook(Jan 02 to Jan 06,2012)

Nifty-Monthly Chart(30-Dec-2011)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in Monthly charts

1- All trends are down.
2- Down moves in Falling Channel.
3- Monthly closing at 30 months lowest on the last day of 2011

Conclusions from Monthly chart analysis 

2011 begun from long bearish Candle and finished also with long bearish candle and corrected that rally which begun in March 2009.

Nifty-Weekly Chart(30-Dec-2011)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- Weekly closing below the top of Wave-1(4693) at 4624.30

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis 

As per Elliot Wave Theory:-


"The bottom of wave 4 should not dip below the top of wave 1 of the same degree,at least on a closing price level"

Top of wave 1 was at 4693 and previous Weekly closing is below 4693 therefore Wave-4 is at stake and with this whole 38 months Waves structure which begum on 27-10-2008 from 2252 will break after confirmation of Wave-4 failure.

Nifty-EOD Chart(30-Dec-2011)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of 13 months correction is still intact.
2- 97 Sessions sideways market between 4720-5229 broken down.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

All trends are down after 13 months correction and above mentioned 2 trend reversal formations for the last 97 months and in which sideways market structure has been broken down. Last hope of Bulls survival is that Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern which is still intact.


Nifty-Intra Day Chart(30-Dec-2011)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 4675-4687
2- Sharp fall
2- Last more than one hour support between 4610-4627
3- Whole day trading between 4610-4627

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although selling at higher levels but intraday support also during last more than one hour seen therefore minor upmove is expected in the beginning of next week

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are down at the end of 2011.

As per Elliot Wave Theory:-


"The bottom of wave 4 should not dip below the top of wave 1 of the same degree,at least on a closing price level"

Top of wave 1 was at 4693 and Nifty closed below 4693 last Friday. It means that Wave 4 of Nifty dipped and closed below the top of wave 1. As Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of 13 months correction is still intact therefore it will be understood that 38 months waves structure(Patient) is on ventilator and structure termation will get confirmation throgh sustaining below 4693 and dipping below the falling lower line of Broadening Pattern.

Next immediate supports are as follows:-

1- 4602-4624
2- 4560-4590

First of all it has to be decided that Nifty is getting support at above mentioned supports or not. As intraday support seen last Friday between 4610-4627 therefore sustaining beyond above support will be firstly watched in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining below 4560 will be confirmation of 38 months waves structure failure and in that situation much lower levels will be expected. Sustaining above 4627 be confirmation of survival hopes revival and any rally will get up moves confirmation according to crossing of crucial higher levels and multiple resistances.

Most depressed sentiment at the beginning of 2012 because lowest closing of 2011 and first of all sustaining beyond 4610-4627 will be firstly watched. Finally sustaining beyond 4560 will give following confirmation in next week;-

1- Below 4560 will mean Bear victory with sharp down.
2- Above 4560 will mean revival of Bull's survival hopes.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 30-Dec-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 30-Dec-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 30-Dec-2011 969.1 1147.25 -178.15

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 30-Dec-2011 853.68 587.08 266.6

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(30-Dec-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Black Candle
3- Midcap and Small cap Indices closed in Green

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.09
Nifty P/E Ratio(30-Jan-2011): 16.75

Advances & Janlines

BSE ADVANCES : 1313
BSE JanLINES : 1491
NSE ADVANCES : 689
NSE JanLINES : 729

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4600 CE(Jan)- +257100(+17.97%)
Nifty- 4600 PE(Jan)- +708250(+23.59%)

Nifty- 4700 CE(Jan)- +1017350(+39.24%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Jan)- +184100(+7.85%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Jan)- +706400(+27.11%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Jan)- +51000(+3.27%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at  4,624.30(-21.95Points & -0.47%)
Sensex- closed at  15,454.92(-89.01Points & -0.57%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at  6,111.85(+33.45Points & +0.55%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at  5,550.14(+5.15Points & +0.09%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 02-01-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4755
R2 4722
R1 4673
Avg 4640
S1 4591
S2 4558
S3 4509

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4706     Trgt 2
H5 4687     Trgt 1
H4 4669     Long breakout
H3 4646     Go Short
H2 4639
H1 4631
L1 4616
L2 4608
L3 4601     Long
L4 4578     Short Breakout
L5 4560     Trgt 1
L6 4541     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 02-01-2012

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 4784
R2 4746
R1 4690
Avg 4652
S1 4596
S2 4558
S3 4502

Nifty( Jan  Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4728     Trgt 2
H5 4707     Trgt 1
H4 4685     Long breakout
H3 4659     Go Short
H2 4651
H1 4642
L1 4625
L2 4616
L3 4608     Long
L4 4582     Short Breakout
L5 4560     Trgt 1
L6 4539     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 02-01-2012

Bank Nifty( Jan  Fut)-Levels

R3 8304
R2 8216
R1 8080
Avg 7992
S1 7856
S2 7768
S3 7632

Bank Nifty( Jan  Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 8169     Trgt 2
H5 8118     Trgt 1
H4 8067     Long breakout
H3 8005     Go Short
H2 7985
H1 7964
L1 7923
L2 7902
L3 7882     Long
L4 7820     Short Breakout
L5 7769     Trgt 1
L6 7718     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 02 to Jan 06,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 4940
R2 4870
R1 4747
Avg 4677
S1 4554
S2 4484
S3 4361

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 4817     Trgt 2
H5 4773     Trgt 1
H4 4730     Long breakout
H3 4677     Go Short
H2 4659
H1 4641
L1 4606
L2 4588
L3 4570     Long
L4 4517     Short Breakout
L5 4474     Trgt 1
L6 4430     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 02 to Jan 06,2011)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 8778
R2 8599
R1 8283
Avg 8104
S1 7788
S2 7609
S3 7293

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 8465     Trgt 2
H5 8352     Trgt 1
H4 8240     Long breakout
H3 8104     Go Short
H2 8058
H1 8013
L1 7922
L2 7877
L3 7831     Long
L4 7695     Short Breakout
L5 7583     Trgt 1
L6 7470     Trgt 2

NIFTY-Jan F&O-1st Buying of 30-12-2011-Trade

NIFTY(Jan Fut-Buy-Positional)SL-4614-TGT-4684-CMP-4631

NIFTY(Jan Call Option-Buy-Positional)SL-4614-TGT-4684-S.P.FOR Call-4600,4700(Jan Fut-Rates for all Options)-CMP-4630
(No covering today)

Pre-Closing Outlook(30-12-2011)

Lower levels supports testing posibility has already been was told in  previous outlooks and immediate supports have also been given.

Although selling at higher levels but intraday support also during last one hour seen today therefore minor upmove is expected on Monday

Mid-session Outlook-2(30-12-2011)

Market moved up after opening but selling developed and Nifty could not cross next resistance as well as slipped. Next supports have been updated in previous outlooks and that will be tested now.

Mid-session Outlook(30-12-2011)

Crucial and next moves deciding levels for today have already been posted in Pre-open Outlook today and Nifty is trading between 4660-4687 since opening with minor consolidation indications but lot of consolidation is required for any sustained up move from here. Most uncertain cues from global markets therefore will be better to get confirmation through sustaining beyond following next support/resistance range:-

Support- 4602-4624
Resistance- 4680-4700

As minor consolidation indications today therefore up moves are expected and sustaining above 4700 will confirmation level.

Pre-open Outlook(30-12-2011)

Sentiment improved after good gains in US markets therefore all the Asian markets are positive and Nifty will firstly trade between 4624-4680 after Green opening today, Immediate support and resistance are as follows;-

Support- 4602-4624
Resistance- 4680-4700

As global markets are getting directions from US and European markets therefore positive mood today morning and Indian markets will prepare for next moves between 4624-4680 as well as next trend will be understood according to sustaining beyond this range.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 30-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(29-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 4680-4700
2- Sharp fall
3- Whole day trading between 4640-4700

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

All trends are already down and previous week begun rally fizzled out after intraday selling again today therefore more down moves will be seen and Nifty will test following immediate supports of the rally:-

Next immediate supports are as follows:-

1- 4602-4624
2- 4560-4590

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 29-Dec-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 29-Dec-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 29-Dec-2011 1504.5 2520.32 -1015.82

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 29-Dec-2011 996.86 673.79 323.07

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(29-Dec-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Red except Metals and Health Care.
2- Black Candle
3- Weaker Global cues led whole day negative markets.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.82
Nifty P/E Ratio(29-Dec-2011): 16.83

Advances & Janlines

BSE ADVANCES : 1151
BSE JanLINES : 1541
NSE ADVANCES : 501
NSE JanLINES : 933

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4600 CE(Jan)- +567150(+70.18%)
Nifty- 4600 PE(Jan)- +549550(+20.69%)

Nifty- 4700 CE(Jan)- +964150(+63.17%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(Jan)- -86350(-3.55%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(Jan)- +341350(+13.88%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Jan)- -153400(-8.90%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,646.25(-59.55 Points & -1.27%)
Sensex- closed at 15,543.93(-183.92 Points & -1.170%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,078.40(-49.35 Points & -0.81%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 5,544.99(-41.56 Points & -0.74%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-12-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4747
R2 4724
R1 4685
Avg 4662
S1 4623
S2 4600
S3 4561

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4708     Trgt 2
H5 4694     Trgt 1
H4 4680     Long breakout
H3 4663     Go Short
H2 4657
H1 4651
L1 4640
L2 4634
L3 4628     Long
L4 4611     Short Breakout
L5 4597     Trgt 1
L6 4583     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 30-12-2011

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 4779
R2 4753
R1 4713
Avg 4687
S1 4647
S2 4621
S3 4581

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4739     Trgt 2
H5 4724     Trgt 1
H4 4709     Long breakout
H3 4691     Go Short
H2 4685
H1 4679
L1 4666
L2 4660
L3 4654     Long
L4 4636     Short Breakout
L5 4621     Trgt 1
L6 4606     Trgt 2